Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

As expected, Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) reported another great quarter with beats on both the top and bottom lines. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $200 million, respectively. Since its earnings release, Visa has set new to all-time highs, currently sitting at ~$100 per share. The Visa Europe acquisition has been a tailwind for the company, translating into phenomenal transaction and volume growth. However, this was expected and beginning with the initial quarter Visa started reporting the fully integrated company these numbers have been fantastic. Visa has been posting great growth across all segments of its enterprise further accentuated by the Visa Europe acquisition. Meanwhile, the company continues to grow its dividends and engage in consistent share repurchases. It’s noteworthy to point out that Visa has been buying back its own stock at near all-time highs as of recent. Visa has continued to be a best in-class large-cap growth stock, however, does this translate into a compelling investment opportunity for a great long-term position? I always felt that Visa was a great long-term holding that offered growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. The fully integrated Visa enterprise in conjunction with major client wins will likely enable sustained and durable growth now and into the future, however, I feel that Visa is overvalued based on the first nine months of revenue from FY2017 and a pullback may be coming. Continue reading "Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?"

High-Quality Covered Puts - 78% Win Rate

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

I’ve written many articles highlighting the advantages options trading and how this technique, when deployed in opportunistic or conservative scenarios on a consistent basis may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk in a meaningful manner. Here, I’d like to focus on leveraging cash to engage in options trading, more specifically selling covered puts. Here, I’d like to cover my approach and results in layman's terms about strategy and empirical outcome with commentary.

In short, I’m committing cash to purchasing shares in the future at an agreed upon price while being paid a premium. Usually, this agreed upon price is significantly higher than it currently trades and when factoring in the premium income, the agreed upon price will be slightly lower than the current price. Put another way; I’m committing cash to buying shares in the future for less than the stock trades today. Therefore, the seller of the option contract (in this case me) believes the price will increase, and the buyer (stock owner) believes the price will fall. The stock owner (buyer) and is purchasing insurance in the event the stock falls (paying for the right to sell the stock at an agreed upon price and date). As the stock appreciates in value and approaches the agreed upon price within the contract time frame the shares will be kept by the owner (buyer), and I keep the premium. If the shares decrease in value, then the shares will be sold to me at the agreed upon price (less the premium). My objective is to leverage cash and generate income without owning the underlying shares of the company via options contracts. Continue reading "High-Quality Covered Puts - 78% Win Rate"

Upcoming Facebook Earnings - A Nonevent Long-Term

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Upcoming Earnings

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) is due to announce earnings on July 26th after the market closes. Facebook tends to be volatile after earnings are announced and typically pop to the upside as Facebook’s earnings have continued to post robust growth. Back on June 2nd, 2017, I authored an article “Facebook Will Hit $175 By Year End” and with five more months to go before the end of the year, I think Facebook has a good chance of breaking through this number. Facebook has been on an uptrend heading into earnings and currently sits at $160 per share and while the stock is up 39% YTD. These numbers may seem staggering, and some would state that buying at these levels would be cashing the stock. Normally I would agree with this approach. However, I think Facebook is an exception to this situation. Even at these levels and YTD appreciation, factoring in Facebook’s projected growth with tech comparators such as Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), collectively known as the FANG stocks, Facebook is superior with a lower risk profile. Facebook’s projected growth is greater than Google’s and just shy of Amazon’s yet has a P/E ratio that’s lower than Google’s and a fraction of Amazon’s and Netflix’s. Regardless of the upcoming earnings announcement, this will be an immaterial event to the long term narrative for Facebook investors. I feel that Facebook represents value even after this massive run YTD and continue my long thesis. Continue reading "Upcoming Facebook Earnings - A Nonevent Long-Term"

Mitigating Risk, Accentuating Returns and Realizing Gains - 27.9% Return

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

I’ve written a series of articles detailing the utility of options trading and how an investor can leverage a long position in an underlying security to mitigate risk, augment returns and generate cash. This strategy comes with two alternatives, in the end, depending on whether or not one desires to realize gains and relinquish his shares or remain long the security of interest. I’d like to highlight Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE:CRM) as an example for this covered call strategy. I’ll be highlighting how I’ve successfully accentuated my returns via leveraging the underlying security in the form of collecting option premiums over a 20-month span. In this example, I decided to ultimately realize gains generated from the underlying appreciation of the stock combined with the options income and relinquish my shares. Taken together, the synergy of the options income and appreciation of the underlying security generated a realized gain of 27.9% over this timeframe.

I’m utilizing a high growth technology stock that’s at the intersection of syncing the customer and enterprise relationship via social, mobile and cloud platforms. Salesforce is a contentiously debated aggressive growth stock that trades on lofty valuations. Salesforce is marginally profitable and thus difficult to assign a valuation as measured by traditional metrics such as the price-to-earnings multiple (P/E ratio) and the PEG ratio. Due to its rapid growth, expanding footprint, major partnerships with Fortune 500 companies (i.e. Home Depot, GE, Wells Fargo, Coca-Cola, etc.), expansion into international markets and its overall ubiquity in terms of its consumer relationship management (CRM) platform, it's reasonable to see why investors are willing to pay a premium. Much of its revenue is deferred as a result of its subscription-based model thus deferred revenue is often discussed on earnings calls. Deferred revenue is not yet realized revenue however it’s been received by the company. Since Salesforce delivers its service over time, this received amount isn’t reported as traditional revenue since the service hasn’t been rendered. Due to these factors and the difficulty of placing an accurate valuation on Salesforce, options in the form of covered call writing may be an effective way to leverage this growth stock while mitigating downside risk. Salesforce offers the right balance of volatility, liquidity and a high level of interest which gives rise to reasonable yielding premiums on a bi-weekly or monthly basis. This set-up bodes well for those who are long Salesforce (or a stock similar in nature) and desire to leverage options trading to augment returns and mitigate risk throughout the volatile nature of this underlying security. Salesforce’s recent string of earnings has impressed investors, and covered call options may accentuate this underlying equity return. Writing covered calls in an opportunistic and/or disciplined manner may mitigate losses and smooth out drastic moves in this underlying security. Continue reading "Mitigating Risk, Accentuating Returns and Realizing Gains - 27.9% Return"

IBB - Biotech Catches Fire... Finally

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Biotechnology has been a difficult space to deploy capital over the previous ~18-24 months. This cohort plummeted over and over again from both sides of the political isle as the 2016 presidential race unfolded. Between Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump taking aim at drug pricing via speeches, Twitter, and other social media platforms, largely attributed to the entire cohort selling off. The sustained sell-off lead to the entire cohort to sell off from all-time highs of $400 to $240 or 40% in only six months as measured via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ:IBB). From February of 2016 through June of 2017 IBB traded in a tight range from $250 to $300 while Donald Trump continually fired shots against the healthcare sector. Any healthcare related stocks became volatile on the heels of any statement or tweet from Donald Trump. Shortly after the inauguration, Trump stated that drug companies are “getting away with murder” when speaking to the drug pricing issue. Now he’s come out and stated that he’s working on a “new system where there will be competition in the drug industry.” Every time any of these remarks were tweeted, they immediately resulted in a downtrend across the entire biotech cohort. As the new proposed health care legislation enters its initial stages in Congress, a level of certainty has entered the picture, and the drug pricing threats are not perceived to be as bad as initially feared. Recently the index has had a resurgence moving from $284 to $321 or 13% over the past month. As the political headwinds continue to abate, I feel the index has room to continue its upward trend. Continue reading "IBB - Biotech Catches Fire... Finally"