Hasbro - Major Tailwinds Ahead

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

It’s been an eventful couple of months for Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS), the third largest toy maker in the world with Toys R Us filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy and a rumored acquisition of rival toymaker Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) all while the stock has been trading erratically in the backdrop with 10% swings in the stock price. As a result of the Toys R Us bankruptcy filing, Hasbro had to lower its guidance through the holiday season, and as a result, shares initially tumbled 9% on the news. Recently, Hasbro had witnessed a huge sell-off from its 52-week high of $116 to $88 or a 24% slide after reporting its most recent quarterly results with lowered guidance due to the Toys R Us bankruptcy filing. Hasbro develops toys for many of the multi-billion dollar movie franchises such as Marvel Universe, Star Wars, Disney Princesses, Frozen, Transformers and Jurassic World. Hasbro has many catalysts in the near term with major movie franchises coming into the fray with upcoming Disney releases: Thor: Ragnarok and Star Wars: The Last Jedi to round out 2017. It's noteworthy to point out that Thor: Ragnarok has topped $675 million thus far at the international box office and closing in on the $750 million mark in theatrical release rising to the 10th highest grossing movie in 2017. In 2018, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Star Wars Han Solo spinoff and Ant-Man and The Wasp to highlight a few major movies. Taking into account Hasbro’s growth, the potential acquisition of Mattel, Q4 2017-Q2 2018 catalysts, trading at a P/E of ~20, boasting a 2.4% yield and initiatives within Hasbro Studios to propel growth further presents a compelling buy after this recent sell-off below $100 per share. Continue reading "Hasbro - Major Tailwinds Ahead"

Disney's Pivot - Future Autonomy and Growth

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) just reported its full-year FY2017 numbers with its Q4 numbers falling short of analysts’ estimates, missing on both EPS and revenue coming in at $1.07 (missing by $0.08) and $12.78 billion (missing by $560 million), respectively. On an annual basis, EPS marginally decreased to $5.69 for FY2017 from $5.72 for FY2016. All financial metrics insignificantly decreased year-over-year with a slight increase in free cash flow. All operating segments insignificantly decreased year-over-year as well. However, Parks and Resorts were a bright spot for FY2017. Now with FY2017 in the books, FY2018 is off to a great start with strongholds in streaming (Hulu, BAMTech, Sling offerings), future inroads into other streaming initiatives with a Disney branded service to directly compete with Netflix (NFLX) and an ESPN streaming offering slated for release in 2018 and finally a record-breaking movie release with Thor: Ragnarok already surpassing $212 million domestically and $650 million worldwide on its way to possibly breaking the prestigious 1 billion dollar mark only after two weeks in release. I feel too much of an emphasis is being placed on ESPN as it weighs less on overall profits. Disney is evolving to address the deteriorating Media Networks business segment with initiatives put forth previously and doubling down during its recent conference call. Investors appear to be looking past this ESPN issue finally as seen in the price action of Disney stock after releasing a lukewarm earnings announcement. Disney has one of its biggest movie slates for FY2018 and a potential acquisition of 21st Century Fox’s assets to further drive growth. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, Media Networks remediation plan, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend growth.

Disney’s New Growth Pivot - Streaming

ESPN remained at the forefront of investors’ minds, serving as the root cause of this streaming initiative as profits and revenue from the Media Networks division have stalled out over the past few years. Simply put, Disney is going all-in on a Disney branded streaming service come 2019. As investors digest the earnings report and fixate on the eroding Media Networks division, I think Disney is offering a long-term buying opportunity near ~$100 per share. This has been seen by the price movement in Disney stock post-earnings which saw a ~3% move to the upside despite the disappointing earnings announcement. Although ESPN makes up a disproportionate amount of the company’s revenue and income, all of its other franchises are posting robust growth hence Disney will be relying less on its ESPN franchise over the coming years. Disney’s perpetual stock slump and the roller coaster ride over the last two years has almost entirely been attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue slowdown at its Media Networks division. Continue reading "Disney's Pivot - Future Autonomy and Growth"

Facebook Continues Double-Digit Growth - $200 Soon?

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) recently announced Q3 FY2017 earnings and once again delivered phenomenal growth numbers across the business with beats on both top and bottom lines with revenue of $10.33 billion and EPS of $1.59 translating into beats of $490 million and $0.31, respectively. Total revenue and net income were up 47% and 79%, respectively. Previously, I authored an article and put forth my thesis that Facebook was the preferred FANG stock, collectively comprised of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOG), considering its growth and valuation relative to its FANG cohort. The Q2 FY2017 earnings reinforced this thesis. Facebook had been on an uptrend heading into earnings and broke through the $182 level.

The stock declined after the earnings call due to talk that the company will increase expenses to beef up its security workforce to combat “abuse on our platforms, ” and as a result, the stock sold off a bit to settle at $179 the next day. The stock has had a tremendous run YTD and is up 55.5%. These numbers may seem staggering, and some may contend that buying at these levels would be cashing the stock. Even at these levels and YTD appreciation, factoring in Facebook’s projected growth with technology comparators such as Google, Netflix, and Amazon, collectively known as the FANG stocks, Facebook is far superior with a lower risk profile. Facebook’s projected growth is more significant than Google’s yet has a P/E ratio that’s in-line with Google’s and a fraction of Amazon’s and Netflix’s. I feel that Facebook represents value even after this massive run and I maintain my long thesis. Continue reading "Facebook Continues Double-Digit Growth - $200 Soon?"

Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Final FY2017 numbers have been reported for Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and FY2018 is now underway. I previously wrote an article proposing my thesis that growth will slow (not stop) starting with Q1 FY2018 numbers and now that FY2017 is in the books, I’ll be taking a clinical approach into this thesis as we approach Q1 FY18 numbers. As expected, Visa just recently reported another great quarter for Q4 FY2017 with beats on both the top and bottom line to round out the fiscal year. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $230 million, respectively. Visa had set new to all-time highs of ~$110 per share leading into the earnings report. Despite these beats on both the top and bottom line numbers, the stock responded in a relatively muted fashion. Investors have been accustomed to year-over-year quarterly growth in the double digits over the past year, specifically post Visa Europe acquisition and integration. For year-over-year revenue comparators post-Visa Europe integration, FYQ4 2016 growth was 19% followed by FY2017 revenue growth with FYQ1 at 25%, FYQ2 was 23%, FYQ3 was 26%, and FYQ4 was 14%.

FYQ4 2017 is a far departure from the previous four quarters of growth. Visa’s management is now forecasting revenue growth in the high single digits with EPS growth in the mid-teens, artificially high due to share buybacks. This forward-looking revenue growth rate is a shape divergence from the past year-plus revenue growth numbers investors were enjoying yet appears to be the new normal moving forward. As I posited previously, Visa’s growth rate will be slowing, now confirmed by Visa’s management and is thus misaligned with the stock’s 41% YTD appreciation, P/E ratio, PEG ratio and overall growth prospects. Continue reading "Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun"

Covered Calls and Covered Puts - Empirical Results and Lessons Learned

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Leveraging Options

I’ve written numerous articles on options trading and how one can leverage options over the long-term to mitigate risk, generate income and accentuate returns. Leveraging options to supplement portfolio returns can make a meaningful impact on overall returns, especially over the long-term. Here, I’ll focus on covered calls and covered puts with corresponding lessons learned over the course of the past year with empirical data.

Covered calls are intended to leverage a stock position while extracting value on a consistent basis via selling option contracts against that position and collecting premium income in the process. I liken this to a landlord renting a room for monthly income, however, in this case, one is renting the stock. The option contract is structured with the option seller (stock owner) collecting a premium in exchange for the right for the option buyer to purchase the shares of interest at an agreed upon price by an agreed upon date for a premium (income that the option seller will receive). In this scenario, the stock owner doesn't believe that the shares will appreciate beyond the agreed upon price and thus be able to collect income while retaining the shares and dividend rights. The option buyer believes that the shares will appreciate beyond the agreed upon price and be able to buy the shares at a lower price than the market currently trades.

Covered puts involve leveraging a cash position that one currently has on hand and collecting a premium in exchange for the obligation to purchase one’s shares at an agreed-upon price prior to an agreed upon date. If the stock falls below the agreed-upon price prior to the agreed upon date, then the individual that bought the contract from you will force the obligation (that you agreed to) for you to purchase the shares. In this case (when the stock falls throughout the contract lifespan), the shares can be sold to you (the put option seller) at a higher price than the market. However, if the shares rise in value then the shares will remain with the owner and the put option seller will keep the premium income and the cash earmarked for the potential purchase of the shares will be freed. Why exercise the contract and sell the shares to you (option seller) at a lower price when one can sell the shares on the open market at a higher price? Continue reading "Covered Calls and Covered Puts - Empirical Results and Lessons Learned"