I'm sure as a trader you've heard the expression, the "trend is your friend." That was never more true than today as crude oil (NYMEX_CL) crashed to new lows and the stock market resumed its downward trend.
Today we are focusing on crude oil and the reason why it fell to new lows. We're also going to be looking at all of the "Trade Triangle" signals that we have received on crude oil since last July. The video is about nine minutes long and I highly recommend watch it, simply because it shows you just how powerful trends can be.
The video also shows you why price action is more important than fundamentals. If you have a few minutes, please take the time to watch the video and learn how the markets really work.
Since Barack Obama was named President elect, we can see how the markets have reacted at least in the short-term. Maybe not a reflection of Obama's potential as a president, maybe a reality check for problems in the economy. Not even the record cut in interest rates by the UK could help the markets today.
Enjoy the video and please let us know if you've found it to be helpful and useful in your own trading plan. You can reach us online or you can call us directly at 1-800-538-7424 and someone from a support staff will be able to answer any questions you might have.
Every success in life and in trading,
Crude oil looks cheap, doesn't it?
Just because something looks inexpensive doesn't mean that it's necessarily a buy. It's very possible for crude oil (NYMEX_CL) to rally up into the low 70s, but you have to remember that it would still be in a bear market. We have seen very few counter trend rallies in this market since it began its amazing fall from grace. The liquidation of the hedge funds and speculators from this market pushed crude down so much that OPEC had to have an emergency meeting. During that meeting, they agreed to cut production by a total of 1.5 million barrels a day. I don't believe for a second that they are going to follow through with that plan. I don't think its every going to happen.
OPEC is now between a rock and a hard place, and is being forced to continue pumping oil because of other financial commitments. Most if not all of the OPEC countries have recently put economic programs in place, all of which require further funding. These economic programs are now having to be financed from a lower income stream. I doubt seriously, giving the players in OPEC, that they will live up to their word to cut output levels. They need the money much like a drug addict needs a fix.
I expect certain countries (Venezuela and Russia) to continue pumping as much crude as they can, so that their socioeconomic infrastructure does not come to a screeching halt. As I have said before, trading this market with a technical program and a game plan far exceeds just looking at the fundamentals. The fundamentals always come in late and after the fact. Market action, and market action alone, determines the trend for not only crude oil, but also for all of the other markets.
Remember, when you are trading against the major trend you should always use positions smaller than if you are trading with the major trend. I believe that the conservative play would be to allow crude oil to rally, and then sell the rally when you have a technical signal to do so.