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What To Expect In The Oil Market

By: Sara Nunnally of Street Authority

The latest rumor around the global water cooler that Russia and OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze oil production at January or February levels has been dispelled... for now.

The OPEC leaders meeting in Doha failed to reach an agreement to cap production, with Iran bowing out of the meeting altogether, and refusing to pull back on its oil production. As a result, oil prices took a big tumble. Brent crude fell a harsh 7% on the news. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell almost as much at 6.6%.

But does a "no deal" result from the OPEC Doha meeting mean production caps are off the table? Or that OPEC wouldn't seek an alliance outside its cartel?

Hardly.

In response to the meeting, Qatar's energy minister Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said, "We of course respect [Iran's] position... The freeze could be more effective definitely if major producers, be it from OPEC members like Iran and others, as well as non-OPEC members, are included in the freeze."

Al-Sada said that OPEC members need more time. Which says to me that this won't be the last we hear of production caps.

Indeed, this wasn't the first time we'd heard about potential cooperation between OPEC and Russia, either.

The rumor of a possible oil production freeze lifted oil markets as much as 4.7% and kept prices for WTI above $41 mid-week last week. That means oil prices have been on a wild ride. Take a look at WTI futures: [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30672983

Asian Financial Crisis: Now and Then

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Are we set for a rerun of the 1997 Asian Financial crisis? Well, as Mark Twain said once, history does not repeat itself but it rhymes. The current turmoil does strikingly resemble that of the original 1997 Asian financial crisis. However, unlike the 1997 crisis, today’s circumstances are quite different.

Asian Financial Crisis of 1997

What initiated the Asian financial crisis back in the 90s? Well, it was the culmination of many things. Primarily, though it was the inability of Asian and other emerging economies to finance themselves. This was generally due to large current account deficits which led emerging markets to accumulate foreign debt. Eventually, they become dependent on foreign creditors.

When investors’ appetite for emerging market debt waned, those Asian economies had difficulty financing themselves. And let’s not forget Russia, which, coupled with its own circumstances, was pushed to default. [Read more...]

Would You Invest In Saudi Arabia? How About Iran?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Saudi Arabia opened its $590 billion stock market to foreign investors Monday – a move aimed at helping the country’s companies endure a potentially extended period of lower oil prices.

Interestingly, only about one-fifth of the companies traded on the Tadawul Saudi Stock Exchange are directly in the oil business. But most others are, of course, heavily affected by oil, which has long been the major driver of Saudi Arabia’s economy.

By opening the exchange to all foreign investors, the Saudis hope to help its domestic companies raise significant capital, thereby helping to strengthen – and diversify – the country’s economy. The Kingdom may also be hoping some new foreign investment can help plug a hole in its budget, which has expanded to pay Saudi companies that rely on government contracts for construction, infrastructure, agriculture, education, and other areas. According to the Saudi Gazette on Sunday, the country’s breakeven crude oil price has risen from just under $75 in 2009 to about $90 today, translating into an estimated $38.6 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2015. [Read more...]

Oil price rises above $97 as Fed fears ease

The price of oil rose above $97 a barrel Thursday, as the latest U.S. economic data raised hopes for an increase in gasoline demand but suggested the Federal Reserve can wait to pull back on its current stimulus measures.

Meanwhile, the price of natural gas fell to nearly a 4-month low, and the cost of filling up the family car dropped again as the July Fourth holiday approaches.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000 last week, evidence that the job market is still improving modestly. Steady job gains could help the economy expand later this year, and would mean more people driving to work. [Read more...]

Potential Oil Glut! Raymond James Analyst's Contrarian Forecast

The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?

Andrew Coleman: Because of the evolution of North American shale oil plays, we are on track to add about 3 million barrels (3 MMbbl) of new supply over the next five years. Yet we know oil demand has been falling across the developed nations and is still weak coming out of the global financial crisis. Those developments point toward a glut.

TER: Saudi Arabia surprised you last year by cutting production when oil was more than $110 per barrel ($110/bbl). Why would Saudi or other suppliers not do that again?

AC: What hurt production outside the U.S. last year and helped keep the demand side a little more in balance was that Saudi cut 800,000 barrels a day (800 Mbbl/d) in Q4/12, sanctions in Iran reduced exports by about 800 Mbbl/d as well, conflict in Sudan took 300 Mbbl/d offline and the North Sea average was lower by about 130 Mbbl/d. These reductions kept last year's supply more balanced than we thought it would be. Going forward, Saudi's ability or willingness to cut is certainly going to be tested, because by our model the country may need to cut 1.5 million barrels a day (1.5 MMbbl/d), about double what it cut last year. It would have to do that for a longer period of time, given the amount of excess storage that could show up on the global markets.

TER: But, as you just pointed out, Saudi Arabia's cut came in the context of actions by other players. The other players are going to be as unpredictable as they were last year, aren't they? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theenergyreport/caoK/~3/tzym3nYV5pA/15334

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