Pendulum Experiment No.3: An Early Victory!

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In the blink of an eye, we have reached the middle of the year, and it’s time to see how our third Pendulum experiment worked out.

I’ll start with the poll results from 6 months ago that show your bets.

Chart 1. Poll results

INO Poll Results
Graph courtesy of INO.com

The majority of you bet on Silver, and you won as you can see in the chart below. It looks like the Nikkei index is not your star whatsoever. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment No.3: An Early Victory!"

2016: Current Market Themes

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market.  We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit.  When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

Back in April, with the first improvement in the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s bookings, we went on bull alert.  By June 22, we had established a trend in the rising bookings and noted the Details Behind Semiconductor Leadership and the bullish implications that this Canary’s Canary in the coal mine carried. Continue reading "2016: Current Market Themes"

Year To Date Dynamics: Metals Versus Top Assets

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today I prepared for you the year-to-date comparative dynamics of the metals versus the top financial instruments including the Dollar Index, crude oil and the S&P 500 index.

Gold Comparison Chart
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

As seen in the above graph, half of the instruments started the year on an upbeat tune, lead by Silver and followed by Gold, Platinum and the Dollar Index. The other half started with a nose-diving fall, especially crude oil followed by Copper, Palladium and the S&P 500 bringing up the rear. Continue reading "Year To Date Dynamics: Metals Versus Top Assets"

Palladium's Weakness Is Corrective And Temporary

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today I prepared an absolutely different look at the Palladium technicals.

Monthly Chart: Palladium Has Halted On The Way Up To $1200

NYMEX:EOD:PAL!
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Palladium has been a top performing metal among the precious metals for the past decade. It's the only precious metal to make a new high in 2014 while the others peaked in 2011 and the only metal to build record ETF inventories.

As seen on the above monthly chart, the metal price has shown quite simple zigzags with vertical soaring during the period between 1977 and 2001. Palladium had flown sky-high to $1090 level and then it had fallen in 2002 down to the $145 mark, giving back almost all of its gains. Indeed, it was a bubble burst. Continue reading "Palladium's Weakness Is Corrective And Temporary"

Metal Tactics: Short Silver and Palladium With A Tight Stop

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Dear INO.com Readers,

The end of January brought worrisome signals to the metals' bulls and I want to show you where Silver and Palladium failed to sustain growth and why.

Silver Is In A Downtrend

Let's start with Silver, as it's more liquid and therefore more interesting. Below is a weekly candle chart. I started my metals posts from an overview of a monthly time frame and now I am digging deeper into details using a weekly period.

Weekly Silver Candlestick Chart

The medium term trend is bearish. At the end of 2014, Silver managed to stop a free fall that started above the $21 level. Price sculpted a double bottom figure (highlighted in the blue semicircle) in the $15-18 range. Continue reading "Metal Tactics: Short Silver and Palladium With A Tight Stop"