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Platinum Could Hit The Floor

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


The Global Outlook: Platinum Is In Serious Trouble

NYMEX_EOD:PL1
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Indeed, this metal is very tricky. One moment it can be flying high, then it can take a swing hitting the bottom and again and again. This time around, Platinum is on its way down, falling like a hot knife through butter. Without any problems, it has lost $500, down from $1500.

The minor swing was detected at the $1200-$1300 level on the monthly charts and then the metal slid even faster. The price has easily broken below both the 2006 low at $1059.60 and the 1980 high at $1045. The psychologically important round number level at $1000 has fallen even quicker. [Read more...]

Platinum Demand Hit Decade High Amid Falling Price

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today I prepared Platinum macro data charts to show industry development for the last decade.

Supply And Demand

Platinum Supply and Demand
Chart: Aibek Burabayev; Data Source: Johnson Matthey, LBMA

In 2004 at the beginning of the review period, supply and demand were ideally balanced at the 7.2 million ounces (Moz) mark at $861/oz price. A year later, both Platinum supply and demand showed decent growth, 2005 outweighed 2004 for 0.7 Moz on the supply side and 0.8 Moz in demand; the price had a modest gain of one hundred dollars. [Read more...]

Fear vs. Fundamentals in the Platinum Market

In October of last year, we published a platinum-market overview in the Casey International Speculator and concluded by saying: "We recommend avoiding South Africa, and in this context it means staying away from platinum producers located there. If the energy situation spins out of control, miners' strikes continue, and the local trouble puts an indefinite halt to a significant portion of platinum production, some speculative opportunities may appear in the physical-metal market or platinum-backed investment tools. If we see signs of that happening, we may speculate on the results."

Although some of the events that we expected did occur this year, the "indefinite halt" has not. The nationwide wildcat strikes that ended in mid-November suggested that that scenario was possible, but the bubbling pot simmered down. We were asked by our readers to share our view on the implications of those actions on the price of platinum.

So, what is the outlook for the platinum market now, and is it time to buy? [Read more...]

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