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Strong

The Super Bowl Indicator - Seahawks (Bulls) VS. Patriots (Bears)

Have you ever heard of the Super Bowl Indicator? Who do you want to win? Are you a Bear or a Bull?

How it works

The Super Bowl Indicator rules state that if a team from The National Football Conference (NFC) wins the Super Bowl, a bull market will prevail. If a team from American Football Conference (AFC) wins, a bear market will prevail.

The New England Patriots are from the AFC, and they will represent the bear market in 2015. The Seattle Seahawks are from the NFC, and they represent the bull market. If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, there is an 80% chance that the markets will rise this year.

I don't know about you, but I want the Seahawks to win again this year.

There are two notable exceptions as of late:

2013 saw the Baltimore Ravens (AFC) win the Super Bowl, and the DOW rose 26.5%. This should have been a bear market.

2008 saw the New York Giants (NFC) win the Super Bowl, and the DOW fell 33%. This should have been a bull market.

Some notable DOW gains from previous years:

1975 saw a gain of 38% when the Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl IX.

1989 saw a gain of 27% when the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XIX.

2003 saw a gain of 25% when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVII.

With the big game coming up today, I thought it would be fun to revisit the Super Bowl Indicator and see who you think will win the Super Bowl.

Who do you want to win the Super Bowl?

View Results

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Have a great time with friends and family watching the big game!

Every success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

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What Do McDonald's, Microsoft and Yahoo All Have In Common?

The simple answer is that all had new leaders in the last couple of years. But, here is the problem - they're all old school, old hat, and not so relevant anymore to investors.

Take a look at the latest casualty in the boardroom. Don Thompson was the CEO of McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) and he held that position for just over two years, during which time McDonald's went nowhere and had zero growth. He is stepping down effective March 1st and Steve Easterbrook, will be taking over the reins of McDonald's. The problem I see with McDonald's is that it's associated with fast, unhealthy food when the entire food industry is turning to healthy eating. You only have to look at places like Baja Fresh, Chipotle and a host of new up-and-comers in the fast, casual, healthy dining service industry to see where McDonald's has completely missed the boat. Like the stock market, perception is everything and the perception is McDonald's just doesn't cut it anymore with most young parents and millennials.

Ray Kroc had a brilliant idea when he first stumbled on the original McDonald's in California back in 1954. Here he discovered Dick and Mac McDonald's fast food restaurant in San Bernardino, California. One year later he incorporated McDonald's Corp. and the rest is history. Now 60 years later, like a lot of corporations, it has lost its relevance in the marketplace and it's going to be extremely hard to play catch-up and change their image. What do you think?

When was the last time you were in a McDonald's?

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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) had a similar start to McDonald's, only this time, a young Bill Gates bought a program from a hacker for $50,000 (remember DOS?) and promptly turned around and licensed it out to IBM for a cool $1,000,000 a year. [Read more...]

Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) 1 Year later

It was one year ago to the day that Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) had its IPO on the NYSE. The reason Twitter went with the NYSE was because of the recent fiasco that Facebook experienced with its own IPO on the NASDAQ. Twitter did not want to repeat Facebook's disastrous roll out with all its negative publicity.

For those of you who don't know what Twitter does, it is an online social communications and networking service that enables users to send and read short 140-character messages called "tweets".

On November 7th, 2013, Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) shares opened for trading at $26 and closed out the day at $44.90 which gave the company a valuation of $31 billion. This made instant billionaires of founders, Evan Williams who made $2.56 billion and Jack Dorsey who received $1.05 billion.

But it got even better because at the end of December 2013, Twitter had a market capitalization of $32.76 billion. Since those heady days in November and December of last year, things haven't gone quite so well for Twitter. For the year, Twitter is down over 34% and down almost 10% from its IPO closing price.

At the moment, this stock is not having a particularly happy birthday as all technical indicators are pointing south and show that the stock could go even lower from where we are now.

One area that could be very interesting for Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) is an integration trend I see between tweets and TV/cable shows. That would be a big source of revenue for Twitter. Other areas such as social revolutions or crowd disruptions certainly are powerful, but I'm not sure how Twitter can make any money off of social unrest, which we are seeing more and more of these days. After all, who wants to sponsor a unpopular revolution?

While Twitter has been around since 2006 and has grown substantially since that time, the question must be asked, is this going to be a relevant source of social information in five or ten years from now? Or is something else in development that can make tweets and Twitter a thing of the past?

The overriding trend at the moment is negative. How far this trend continues on the downside remains to be seen, but it would not appear as though anyone is rushing in to buy this stock at the moment.

In recognition of Twitter's birthday/one year anniversary, I decided to put together a quick poll to get your feedback on just what you think about Twitter.

Are you a Twitter user?

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Looking forward to seeing what you have to say and how you feel about the stock.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

There's Going To Be A War

And it is taking place right now in your neighborhood. No, I'm not talking about ISIS invading your neighborhood, what I'm talking about is credit card payments to merchants.

Earlier this month, Apple announced its mobile payment system called ApplePay. The Apple iPhone 6 uses a technology called Near Field Communication or NFC, which is built into their new iPhones to pay for a product in a store that supports this technology. This is similar to Google Wallet which uses the same technology.

On one side of battlefield you have Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), on the other side you have a consortium of merchants led by Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT), , which includes CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) and Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD). That consortium whose name is MCX (The Merchants Exchange) want to use their own mobile system that they have been developing since 2012. That system is named CurrentC. What's that going to do for consumers? You only have to look at the MCX website to understand what their goal is.

From the MCX Web site: "Merchant Customer Exchange is the only merchant-owned mobile commerce network built to streamline the customer shopping experience across all major retail verticals."

From the press kit: "It will also offer innovative features and benefits, such as merchant loyalty programs and instant coupon savings, all stored on the phone and available right at the point-of-sale."

Sounds very similar to Google wallet and ApplePay, does it not? Mobile payment solutions such as Google wallet have not really caught on with Millennials or anyone else for that matter. It was only when Apple came along with their new payment system that the MCX realized they had to attack. The first part of the attack was putting pressure on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) and Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) to turn off their NFC receivers on their cash registers so ApplePay would not work. What is strange is that Target, who is also a member of MCX, will accept ApplePay as it offers a more secure and superior method of payment over a regular credit card. Looking at some of the recent challenges that Target has had with credit card theft, it is understandable.

So today's poll question is:

Who do you think will win the mobile payment wars?

View Results

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If you have any comments you'd like to share with us about this post or about mobile payments in general, please feel free to leave them below this post.

Life is never boring, even in the mobile payments section.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Our Most Important Poll Ever - We Need Your Input

I feel this is the most important poll that we have ever taken on our website. The reason I say that is that we have never faced uncertain times quite like this. Some of you are going to say, "Adam this is a political posting and not market related." I'm going to respectfully disagree with you as it has everything to do with the markets. What is affecting the minds of investors and the market has, in a large degree, everything to do with Ebola and ISIS. You only have to look at what has happened to the markets in the past two or three weeks. There is not a person I've spoken with in the past two weeks who isn’t concerned about Ebola and what's going on in this country. Forget politics, Ebola doesn’t care if you are a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent. Ebola has no political agenda. [Read more...]

Poll: Even Ben Bernanke Cannot Get A Loan

Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, was addressing the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care conference in Chicago on Thursday and said that, "I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so." He went on to explain that lenders "may have gone a little bit too far on mortgage credit conditions" according to the Bloomberg report.

I thought I would ask you the same question today....

Do you think lenders have gone to far on mortgage credit conditions?

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As always, I would love to hear you thoughts on the subject. Please take a moment to vote and leave a comment.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

Poll: Will you buy Alibaba stock?

IPO day has finally arrived for the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding. Alibaba Group Holding will trade on the NYSE using the symbol BABA. Alibaba's IPO debut has become a hot debate for the market. The demand for its shares has risen so much so that the bankers had to stop taking orders in some places recently.

That leads us to our poll question today....

Will you buy Alibaba stock?

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As always, we would love to hear what you thing about Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA).

Every Success,
Jeremy

Do you plan on buying one of Apple's new iPhones?

Today is Apple's big day as it announces new products at 1 pm ET. What Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPL) will announce has been the talk and buzz of the tech world for the past several weeks and we want to know what you think.

So here is today's question....

Do you plan on buying one of Apple's new iPhone?

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Thank you for participating in our poll.

Poll: Labor Day Weekend

Labor Day is upon us here in the U.S. and it marks the unofficial end of summer. The kids are back in school, the NFL is about to start their season and investors will come back to the markets after their summer break.

When they come back, they will see that the S&P 500 hit the 2000 level and we are in the 4th longest bull run in market history. There seems to be a growing confidence for the market to head higher. What do you think?

Will the market head higher after Labor Day?

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As always we would love to hear your thoughts on the markets. Please take a moment to vote and leave a comment.

Have a great holiday weekend,
The INO.com Team

Poll: Are You Bidding On Bitcoins Today?

A couple of days ago we came across an article on Bloomberg about an upcoming auction (6/27/14 - Today) on a cache of Bitcoins worth about $17 million. The auction is for 29,656 Bitcoins, which are part of more than 144,000 the FBI transferred to U.S. Marshals after shutting down the Silk Road marketplace and arrested its operator last year. This auction offers a rare opportunity to secure a large amount of the virtual currency at one time.

Here's a link to FAQ's about the auction - Bitcoin Auction FAQ's

I thought it would be interesting at ask....

Would you bid in this auction?

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As always, we would love to hear what you have to say on the subject of the auction or just Bitcoin (BITCOIN:BITSTAMPUSD) in general.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

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