Is Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) A Smart Takeover?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Back in September, I wrote that the Stillwater Mining’s stock price was under pressure amid a weakening Platinum. The metal’s price action signaled that another drop below $1000 was in the cards. Indeed the metal price has lost “one digit” sinking to a low of $890 last month from the $1030 level when I wrote the post.

Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) followed the metal’s drop and fell from $12.43 to $11.19 last October, but then it started to rocket higher and hit the 2-year maximum at the $17.50 level last December despite the new low in the platinum price. The clear answer to this contradiction in the metal and stock price behavior came on the 9th of December, 2016. That day, “The Last Mohican” of pure American platinum-group metals (PGM) producers announced that it would be acquired by a South African company for $2.2 billion in a deal that requires U.S. government approval. The purchase price was set at $18 per share and this explains the robust growth of the stock price on the market. Continue reading "Is Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) A Smart Takeover?"

Precious Metals In 2016: The Dark Horse Won The Prize

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


This interesting year is coming to an end and in this post I would like to offer you a summary of precious metals’ dynamics in 2016.

Chart 1. Metals in 2016: Boom And Bust

Precious Metals 2016
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This year metal trading was quite exciting. The chart shows that we have gone through a full Boom and Bust cycle and the top of the cycle amazingly coincides with the middle of a year, when metals showed a maximum gain (except Palladium) within the 25-50% range. Ideal distribution within a single year! Continue reading "Precious Metals In 2016: The Dark Horse Won The Prize"

Stillwater Is Under Pressure As Platinum Can Lose One Digit

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Chart 1. Platinum Monthly: Roller-Coaster

Platinum Monthly Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Platinum booked an almost 50% gain from the bottom at $811 level in January 2016 to the top at $1194 level last month as falling crude oil spurred the demand for cars especially with large engines which in its turn lifted the demand for catalysts. As you can see, there is always a winner if there is a loser.

Those magical days for the metal are gone the same peak month in August, and the price painfully lost $150 from the top as the price was rejected by the upper side of the red multi-year downtrend. This month we can see that the market was trying to climb back to the upside as the candle has a long upper wick but failed to grasp the gains and slid down to the black vertical support. The price has started to drill it already, and it’s highly probable that we can witness the break this month. The break and close below $1020 would confirm the break. The next stop could be only at the June’s low at the $952 mark where the metal would lose one digit and will only have a 3-digit price. Continue reading "Stillwater Is Under Pressure As Platinum Can Lose One Digit"

2016: Current Market Themes

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market.  We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit.  When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

Back in April, with the first improvement in the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s bookings, we went on bull alert.  By June 22, we had established a trend in the rising bookings and noted the Details Behind Semiconductor Leadership and the bullish implications that this Canary’s Canary in the coal mine carried. Continue reading "2016: Current Market Themes"

It Feels Like Inflation

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

Last night’s post on the US stock market ended as follows:

“As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant.  This market is flipping them the bird.  Markets can rise a long way before a rate hike regime finally kills them.  It feels like inflation folks.”

This prompted a question from an NFTRH subscriber about what markets would benefit, and in what differing ways would they benefit if an inflationary phase comes to dominate?  That is a far reaching question and a difficult one as well, because inflation’s effects have a way of being unpredictable (how many would have answered ‘US stock market’ in the spring of 2011 to the question “where will the post-crisis inflation to date manifest on this cycle”?).

Last weekend, in an NFTRH 396 excerpt we talked about Applied Materials stellar quarterly report and what it might mean for the economy, the Fed, the gold sector and most of all the idea of an inflationary backdrop becoming more readily apparent (2003-2007 Greenspan style). Continue reading "It Feels Like Inflation"