Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 8th of
The Beat Goes On, Or Does It?
As the indices make new highs, interest rates have turned and are once again beginning to creep up. It certainly appears to be a strong indication that interest rates have indeed bottomed out. If interest rates continue to improve, meaning high yields for investors, I see this as a potential negative for the market in 2014.
Next year is going to be a dramatic year in the markets in my opinion, as we have a new Fed chairperson, rumored to be Janet Yellen, taking over from helicopter Ben. Ms. Yellen is going to have her work cut out for her trying to clean up the 4-year mess that she is inheriting. Whatever course of action Ms. Yellen embarks on will certainly have major ramifications for the markets, not just here in the United States, but also around the globe. Continue reading "Are Interest Rates Going To Kill This Bull Market?"
Once again we present the Treasury 'TICs' data for China and Japan, most recently available through June. It can be argued that these two countries are the T bond market, when considering the volume in which they deal and their strategic status as heretofore T bond consumers.
And now our long-running and most important macro chart, the 'Continuum' in long-term T bond yields; a monthly view of the 30 year yield and its 'limiter' AKA the 100 month exponential moving average (red line). Continue reading "Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready for a Pivot"
While the MSM instigates reasons why we should give a damn about what people who have little control over the T bond market were thinking at the last meeting, why don’t we just tune it all out and manage the markets instead?
The top panel shows the 30 year yield marching toward the traditional limiter AKA the 100 month EMA. The pattern measures to 4.5% or so, so there could be a spike above and a hell of a lot of hysteria at some point. That’s the collective markets; 98% hype, hysterics and emotion and 2% rational management. Either the 30 year yield is going to do something it has not done in decades (break and hold above the EMA 100) or it is not. Simple. Continue reading "FOMC Minutes… Head for the Hills!!!"
Today's guest is John Bougearel of Financial Futures Analysis and author of Riding the Storm Out. John is going to give us a detailed look into Treasuries and whats driving them. Enjoy and be sure to let us know what you think.
In spite of this week’s early rally, the problem is that both the 10 and 30 year reached their 78% retracements to last week’s highs. While the strength of this week’s rally has been more impressive than any since the March FOMC meeting, we must bear in mind three things between now and next Wednesday and Thursday. This Thursday, jobless claims contracted sharply last week, and may show further improvement. On Friday, Durable Goods showed improvement in Feb, and if you add the 1, that too could carry over into March. These two reports alone could provide further signs of Bernanke’s “green shoots” and Obama’s “glimmer of hope.” Until I looked ahead at the upcoming economic data, I could not figure out what would pick the stock market back up between now and the Fed release of the banksters stress-tests on Monday May 4. What comes into focus is a nascent improvement in economic data, just as Bernanke is seeing it. Continue reading "Treasuries Get Whacked Ahead of Jobless and Durable Goods Report"