Hello MarketClub members everywhere. Like many people around the world, I was watching the events unfold last night in Indiana.
The two big surprises to me were the fact that Ted Cruz suspended his campaign and that Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary. So what does all of this mean and how likely will it affect the markets?
For some time now the market has been moving sideways and looks as though it's reflecting the lower growth rates that we are seeing. Occasionally you'll see it pop, but then the market just seems to fall back under its own weight. The stock market is a forward-looking vehicle which looks ahead 6 to 9 months into the future. I think it's predicting that the battle between the representatives of both the Democrat and Republican parties will get nasty. All of which will translate into negative news for the stock market in the interim.
Having said all that, I'm going to do what I always do and that is separate fiction from fact with the use of the Trade Triangles. What I mean by that is if everyone says a stock should go up, but the stock is going down, then you have to understand that the trend is down and not what everyone wishes it should be. Continue reading "It Looks Like Indiana Changed The World Last Night"
Hello MarketClub Members everywhere, Adam Hewison here, wishing you a happy and prosperous May. I believe this month is going to be a very pivotal one for the stock market.
In the back of many traders' minds is the old market adage, "sell in May and go away". Is that what is going to happen this May? It is perhaps a little too early to tell as there are many, many factors in play the least of which is, of course, the presidential election which has electrified and gripped the country in a way that I have never seen before. Like always, I'm going to rely on the Trade Triangles to tell me what is going on in the marketplace.
This morning, Warren Buffett indicated that he would take his money out of the banks if he had to pay them to keep his money. What he was referring to was negative interest rates. Berkshire Hathaway, which is the operation that Warren Buffett runs, is a conglomerate of companies and has about $60 billion in cash that it keeps in the bank. With the current low-interest rates, Berkshire Hathaway is earning about $600 million a year as opposed to the several billion of dollars it would earn in a more normal interest rate environment.
So in essence when one of the top investors in the world indicates that he would pull his money out of banks, he was saying to Janet Yellen, the head of the Fed, to back off the idea of negative interest rates. Way to go Warren - I think you win this one. Continue reading "Did Warren Buffett Just Shoot Down Negative Interest Rates?"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! How do you feel about the economy, the world, the elections, ISIS or ISIL...? Take your pick.
The other day at a general staff meeting I posed that same question to our amazing team here at MarketClub. I have to say that it was no surprise that they felt there was great uncertainty in the air. It wasn't just one thing, it was a combination of things that made them feel a little uneasy.
So the question is, how do you feel about the markets?
To me, something just doesn't seem quite right. It's not just one thing, it seems to be a combination. The reality is, the markets cannot keep going higher based on cheap money because sooner or later it's going to implode unless the Fed wakes up and gets real. On the fringes you have Puerto Rico running out of money and who's going to bail them out? Across the ocean, Greece is once again close to imploding. Who's going to bail them out? The IMF?
Are stocks at a tipping point? Continue reading "The Great Uncertainty"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere!
Well, here we are, the 1st of April and I don't have an April fools joke to share with you. Q1 will go down in history as one of the best first quarters since the 1930s. So what propelled this market to push so much on the upside in Q1? To be honest with you I'm not sure; maybe it was the prospect of ongoing cheap money from the FED or something else. When you look at hedge fund managers and other professional traders, nobody was expecting such a strong quarter. Now that Q1 is in the record books it is time to start looking at what is ahead for this the stock market.
In today's video, I will be analyzing crude oil (NYMEX:CL.K16.E), which triggered a sell signal and Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) which triggered a buy signal today. I will also be covering the usual suspects. Continue reading "Crude Oil Triggers A Sell Signal and Tesla Blows Away Skeptics"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Today I'm going to be looking at some well-known, household-name stocks at the request of one of our members. I will be analyzing AMZN, GOOGL, CMG, TSLA, IBM and FB, along with the usual suspects, in today's video.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) It's no secret Amazon wants to take over the world and they certainly seem like they're well on their way to doing that. Looking at the stock however, it is showing a mixed picture. The long-term monthly Trade Triangle continues to be red which is perhaps indicating a cap on this market for the moment. Both the weekly Trade Triangle and the PSAR are indicating more of a trading range. Amazon would have to move over the $638 level before everything was lined up and ready to go on the upside. I prefer the sidelines at the moment. Continue reading "A Member's Request"