World Oil Supply-Demand Balance in 2017 Depends on Limited OPEC Production Increase

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and its projects that world supply and demand will finally balance by late 2017. However, that depends on OPEC production rising a very small amount.

Base Case Scenario

Specifically, the EIA reported that OPEC crude production averaged 32.7 million barrels per day (mmbd) in August, and it projects OPEC production to average 32.95 mmbd in 2017. Under that scenario, world supply meets demand of 97.8 million barrels per day, and total inventories end 2017 at 3.062 billion barrels, about 350 million barrels higher than normal.

OECD Commercial Oil Inventory

The 2017 demand figure represents a gain of 1.5% from estimated demand in 2016 of 95.88 mmbd, which is a gain of 1.6% over 2015. This assumes a healthy macroeconomic environment. For example, the EIA is projecting that US GDP gains 2.6% in 2017, much better than the 1.5% GDP gain EIA assumes in 2016. Continue reading "World Oil Supply-Demand Balance in 2017 Depends on Limited OPEC Production Increase"

OPEC Oil Export Revenues Lowest Since 2003

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


But No Agreement To Cut Production Likely

OPEC President, H.E. Dr. Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar's Minister of Energy and Industry, issued a press release August 8th announcing that an informal meeting of OPEC member countries would take place on the sidelines of the 15th International Energy Forum in Algeria from 26 to 28 September 2016. There was an initial price rise, but that faded on Tuesday and Wednesday. Continue reading "OPEC Oil Export Revenues Lowest Since 2003"

Speculators' Risk Assessments Key to Crude Price Changes

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


August crude futures prices edged $0.20 higher in the week ending July 12th (to correspond to the data below), closing at $46.80. However, prices are down about 7% since early June when a confluence of events caused supply disruptions in multiple locations.

Crude Oil Prices

Though U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped more than 20 million barrels since the end of April, petroleum product stocks reached a new peak in the week ending July 8th. Continue reading "Speculators' Risk Assessments Key to Crude Price Changes"

Charting The Energies Data Release

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports estimates for crude oil and petroleum products. These supply, demand and inventory estimates are used by traders to assess the inventory surplus (or deficit), the supply-demand balance and whether the market is tightening or not. The best measure of the latter is to look at the crude stock change and petroleum product stock change graphs.

These stocks and trends are best understood in perspective and so comparisons are made to previous years. Interpreting the data reported by the EIA might otherwise be difficult or time-consuming.

It is important to note that these estimates are provided from surveys and EIA models and are subject to revision. The EIA crude production data, in particular, has been revised substantially in monthly data released a few months after the weeklies.

US Crude Oil Production 4 Week

Other US Energy Supplies

US Crude Production + Other Energy

US Net Crude Oil Imports 4 Week


Continue reading "Charting The Energies Data Release"

Charting The Energies Data Release

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports estimates for crude oil and petroleum products. These supply, demand and inventory estimates are used by traders to assess the inventory surplus (or deficit), the supply-demand balance and whether the market is tightening or not. The best measure of the latter is to look at the crude stock change and petroleum product stock change graphs.

These stocks and trends are best understood in perspective and so comparisons are made to previous years. Interpreting the data reported by the EIA might otherwise be difficult or time-consuming.

It is important to note that these estimates are provided from surveys and EIA models and are subject to revision. The EIA crude production data, in particular, has been revised substantially in monthly data released a few months after the weeklies.

US Crude Production, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

Other US Supply Four Week Trends, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Crude Production and Other Supply, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Net Crude Imports, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016


Continue reading "Charting The Energies Data Release"