Disney Quietly Retreats - Buying Opportunity

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Quiet Buying Opportunity

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) has quietly retreated from its recent highs of $116 to sub $104 thus presenting a buying opportunity in this media juggernaut heading into earnings. We’ve all heard the endless bickering over its slumping ESPN franchise. Although ESPN makes up a disproportionate amount of the company’s revenue, all of its other franchises are posting healthy growth hence Disney will be relying less and less on its ESPN franchise over the coming years. Disney’s perpetual stock slump leading up to its recent resurgence was almost entirely attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue and profit declines from that franchise. The ESPN franchise within the Media Networks segment generates revenue/operating income that is disproportionate to the amount of the company’s overall revenue and operating profit. Thus, one can see why investors were spooked after consecutive significant declines in ESPN subscribers and thus financial numbers over the past three years. Excluding ESPN, Disney has been executing well and reporting record numbers throughout all of its other business segments. Disney has a deep and diversified enough entertainment portfolio that makes a compelling case that these ESPN fears are overblown. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend growth in light of this recent retreat.

Long-Term Narrative and Positive Analyst Sentiment

I’ve been a long bull of Disney (DIS) stock, particularly since the post-ESPN induced sell-off throughout 2016. Since the lows of October 2016, Disney has seen a huge appreciation in stock price, breaking out to above $116 per share before this current downtrend. This upswing has been on the heels of multiple catalysts such as of reporting record annual results, breaking the all-time worldwide box-office record, witnessing a slew of analyst upgrades, Iger extending his contract as CEO, ESPN woes subsiding, Shanghai Disney opening and Disney’s movie line-up announced through 2020. This inflection point coincided with Doctor Strange, Moana and Star Wars Rouge One in calendar Q4 of 2016 followed by record openings for its live action film, Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. The stock fell from the $120s in late 2015 to the high $80s and had been stuck in the $80-$90 range all throughout 2016. That stock slump offered investors an opportunity to purchase a high-quality company at a significant discount. Continue reading "Disney Quietly Retreats - Buying Opportunity"

Disney: The Media Juggernaut Continues Hot Streak

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Media Juggernaut

I’ve been a long bull of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) stock, particularly since the post-ESPN induced sell-off in throughout 2016. Since the lows of October 2016, Disney has seen a huge appreciation in stock price, breaking out to above $115 per share level as of late. This upswing has been on the heels of multiple catalysts such as of reporting record annual results, breaking the all-time worldwide box-office record, witnessing a slew of analyst upgrades, Iger extending his contract as CEO, ESPN woes subsiding, Shanghai Disney opening and Disney’s movie line-up announced through 2020. This inflection point coincided with Doctor Strange, Moana and Star Wars Rouge One in Q4 of 2016 followed by a record opening for its live action film, Beauty and the Beast. The stock fell from the $120s in late 2015 to the high $80s and had been stuck in the $80-$90 range all throughout 2016. This perpetual slump was almost entirely attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue and profit declines from that franchise. The ESPN franchise within the Media Networks segment generates revenue/operating income that is disproportionate to the amount of the company’s overall revenue and operating profit. Thus, one can see why investors were spooked after consecutive significant declines in ESPN subscribers and thus financial numbers over the past three years. Excluding ESPN, Disney has been executing well and reporting record numbers throughout all of its other business segments. Disney has a deep and diversified enough entertainment portfolio that made a compelling case that these ESPN fears were being overblown. Disney offered and still offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend. Continue reading "Disney: The Media Juggernaut Continues Hot Streak"

Disney Continues To Deliver - Iger Extends Contract

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Over the previous six months, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) has logged a solid 22% gain, moving from ~$92 to ~$113. I’ve been long Disney and wrote several pieces on how the strong fundamentals made a compelling case to buy shares when the stock traded down into the low $90s. The compelling long-term investment opportunity was drawn considering the growth drivers, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend. As the first quarter of 2017 comes to an end, Disney continues to deliver strong fundamentals and catalysts moving into the future. At a high-level, Disney’s board has decided to extend Bob Iger’s contract to remain CEO, direct-to-consumer ESPN offerings are in the works, analyst upgrades continue to be issued and Beauty and Beast delivered record breaking numbers to start its film release slate on a strong note for 2017 (Figure 1).

NYSE:DIS
Figure 1 – Six-Month Chart For Disney

Bob Iger Extends Contract

Disney’s Board of Directors announced that it had extended Bob Iger’s contract as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer to July 2, 2019. Bob Iger had been the subject of increasing succession talk after the lead candidate to replace Iger as CEO, Tom Staggs went on to pursue other opportunities and left the company last year. Continue reading "Disney Continues To Deliver - Iger Extends Contract"

Realizing Gains Without Owning Shares Via Leveraging Cash

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

I’ve written many articles highlighting the advantages options trading and how this technique, when deployed in opportunistic or conservative scenarios may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk in a meaningful manner. Here I’d like to focus on leveraging cash-on-hand to engage in options trading, more specifically selling covered puts. In laymen’s terms, I’ll cover option variables, an example, strategy and empirical results with commentary.

The Questions

1. Why buy a stock now when you can purchase the stock in the future at a lower price while being paid to do so?

2. Why buy stocks at all when you can make money on the underlying volatility without ever owning the shares?

Overview

Timing the market has proven to be very difficult if not altogether impossible. However creating opportunities to lock-in downward movement in a given stock one is looking to own is possible. If a stock of interest has substantially fallen to at or near a 52-week low, then one has an option to “buy” the stock at an even lower price at a later date while collecting premium income in the process. Alternatively, it's also possible to make money on the option itself without owning any shares of the company via realizing options premium gains as the underlying stock appreciates in value off its lows. This is called a covered put option, covered in the sense that one has cash to back the option contract. Leveraging covered put options in opportunistic scenarios may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk when looking to initiate a future position in an individual stock. In the event of a covered put, this is accomplished by leveraging the cash one currently has by selling a put contract against those funds for a premium. It's also possible to make money on the option itself without owning any shares of the company via realizing options premium gains as the underlying stock appreciates in value. Continue reading "Realizing Gains Without Owning Shares Via Leveraging Cash"

Analysts' Upgrades For Disney Are A Little Late To The Party

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Recently, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) has been on a sustained uptrend moving from $90 in October of 2016 to $109 as of mid-January 2017, logging a solid 21% gain in the process. I wrote several pieces on Disney when the stock was trading in the range of $89-$93 advocating that Disney offered a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend. The shares sold-off in a meaningful way, moving from 2016 highs of $120 per share to the low $90s and remaining at that level for months. This 25% decline in the share price presented a buying opportunity in a great large-cap growth company with strong fundamentals. The fundamentals of Disney were stronger than ever despite the temporary ESPN woes. These ESPN issues were being addressed in a variety of ways via Hulu, BAMTech investment, Vice production deal and Sling TV. Once these issues were arrested and clarity with regard to a path forward in returning to growth in this segment was laid out, I posited that these shares would have tremendous upside. These corrective actions have been in the works with the backdrop of all its other segments reporting record numbers. Continue reading "Analysts' Upgrades For Disney Are A Little Late To The Party"