Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals - EUR/USD

I spotted a promising trading opportunity in the Foreign Exchange market, and I would like to share it with you today as the setup is ready.

Before that, I would like to give you some insight about the global map for the pair of the single currency against the king currency (EUR/USD) to let you know where other opportunities could emerge as time goes by.

Chart 1. EUR/USD Monthly: Make It Or Break It

Chart courtesy of

On the chart above, we can see the magic power of trends highlighted in blue for the upmove and in red for the current long-lasting correction. The former already took 115 months to unfold exceeding the period of the preceding upmove (93 months) significantly. This is what we always should bear in mind about the nature of corrections – they last longer than the moves they retrace. Continue reading "Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally"

The Dollar Takes 'EM Down

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

Dear readers, I am very grateful to get all your feedback and suggestions that you kindly share with me all the time! Rasesh Shukla, one of our regular readers asked about the Emerging market currencies and particularly about Indian rupee in a comment this month. And I am pleased to share my thoughts with all of you in this post.

Chart 1. 5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX

5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX
Chart courtesy of

I want to start with the comparison chart of the top currencies presented by inverse dollar index, consisting of 6 currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc (orange line) versus the emerging market currencies presented by WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW, green line). The former is quite representative, it tracks the value of the following 15 currencies: Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, Chilean Peso, Colombian Peso, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Russian Ruble, Turkish New Lira, Chinese Yuan, South Korean Won, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Thai Baht. Continue reading "The Dollar Takes 'EM Down"

Speculative Bets On The Aussie To Rise?

Lior Alkalay - Contributor - Forex

Ever since China's stock woes escalated it seems all commodity-related trades have sunk under water. The Aussie took a nose dive vs. the two dominant safe havens, i.e. the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, and turned range bound vs. the Kiwi.

In the not too distant past, there had been some signs of a tentative recovery in the Aussie. However, those signs quickly became mixed messages, offering nothing but false hope. Simply put, China continued to lose its grip on its financial system. Now, as always, China has been the wild card for the Aussie. We've already elaborated on the fact that China can't keep the Yuan high; at best, it can only slow its depreciation. But can China's latest actions be the springboard for the Aussie to rally? Continue reading "Speculative Bets On The Aussie To Rise?"

Are Investors Secretly Turning Bearish On The Dollar?

Lior Alkalay - Contributor - Forex

Less than two weeks into 2016 and history has already been made. This January will go down in the record books as Wall Street’s worst in decades. China is losing control, the Middle East is boiling over and the Emerging Markets are in dire straits. All of which has led stocks to shed more than a trillion dollars in value.

It’s the classic boiling-to-the-brim pot which suggests we’re ready to push the dollar higher, right? Instead, dollar strength has really been rather tame which, on the face of it, is quite puzzling. That is unless investors have secretly been turning bearish on the greenback. The question is, are they? Continue reading "Are Investors Secretly Turning Bearish On The Dollar?"

Will 2016 Bring A Turnaround In FX?

Lior Alkalay - Contributor - Forex

The year 2015, no doubt, has been a year to remember. Markets saw the first Fed rate hike in years which pushed the Dollar ever higher. In the Eurozone, the ECB's QE pushed the Euro to lows it hasn't seen in years. And in China, the Yuan, too, is being pushed to record lows as China's economy gets squeezed.

Now, with 2016 practically knocking at the door, the question is will 2016 be the year of a turnaround? Or will the themes of 2015 continue to dominate? Here are some major areas to focus on which can help us figure it all out. Continue reading "Will 2016 Bring A Turnaround In FX?"