Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Final FY2017 numbers have been reported for Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and FY2018 is now underway. I previously wrote an article proposing my thesis that growth will slow (not stop) starting with Q1 FY2018 numbers and now that FY2017 is in the books, I’ll be taking a clinical approach into this thesis as we approach Q1 FY18 numbers. As expected, Visa just recently reported another great quarter for Q4 FY2017 with beats on both the top and bottom line to round out the fiscal year. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $230 million, respectively. Visa had set new to all-time highs of ~$110 per share leading into the earnings report. Despite these beats on both the top and bottom line numbers, the stock responded in a relatively muted fashion. Investors have been accustomed to year-over-year quarterly growth in the double digits over the past year, specifically post Visa Europe acquisition and integration. For year-over-year revenue comparators post-Visa Europe integration, FYQ4 2016 growth was 19% followed by FY2017 revenue growth with FYQ1 at 25%, FYQ2 was 23%, FYQ3 was 26%, and FYQ4 was 14%.

FYQ4 2017 is a far departure from the previous four quarters of growth. Visa’s management is now forecasting revenue growth in the high single digits with EPS growth in the mid-teens, artificially high due to share buybacks. This forward-looking revenue growth rate is a shape divergence from the past year-plus revenue growth numbers investors were enjoying yet appears to be the new normal moving forward. As I posited previously, Visa’s growth rate will be slowing, now confirmed by Visa’s management and is thus misaligned with the stock’s 41% YTD appreciation, P/E ratio, PEG ratio and overall growth prospects. Continue reading "Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun"

Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

As expected, Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) reported another great quarter with beats on both the top and bottom lines. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $200 million, respectively. Since its earnings release, Visa has set new to all-time highs, currently sitting at ~$100 per share. The Visa Europe acquisition has been a tailwind for the company, translating into phenomenal transaction and volume growth. However, this was expected and beginning with the initial quarter Visa started reporting the fully integrated company these numbers have been fantastic. Visa has been posting great growth across all segments of its enterprise further accentuated by the Visa Europe acquisition. Meanwhile, the company continues to grow its dividends and engage in consistent share repurchases. It’s noteworthy to point out that Visa has been buying back its own stock at near all-time highs as of recent. Visa has continued to be a best in-class large-cap growth stock, however, does this translate into a compelling investment opportunity for a great long-term position? I always felt that Visa was a great long-term holding that offered growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. The fully integrated Visa enterprise in conjunction with major client wins will likely enable sustained and durable growth now and into the future, however, I feel that Visa is overvalued based on the first nine months of revenue from FY2017 and a pullback may be coming. Continue reading "Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?"

Payments Volume Growth Propels Visa To All-Time Highs

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) reported a great quarter that has subsequently propelled the stock to all-time highs. The Visa Europe acquisition is beginning to bear fruit for the company, translating into phenomenal transaction and volume growth. Visa posted great growth across all segments of its enterprise. Meanwhile the company continues to grow its dividends and engage in consistent share repurchases. Visa has continued to be a best-in-class large-cap growth stock and continues to make a compelling investment as a great long-term core portfolio holding. I feel that Visa is a great long-term holding that offers growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. Taken together, the Visa Europe acquisition and major client wins will enable sustained and durable growth now and into the future. Continue reading "Payments Volume Growth Propels Visa To All-Time Highs"

Visa Delivers - Visa Europe Integration Begins To Shine

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

As cashless societies forge ahead, Visa remains at the forefront of this movement with its dominance in the credit card space. Visa Europe acquisition, growing dividends, share buybacks and accelerating revenue and EPS growth culminates into a compelling investment as a great long-term core portfolio holding. As many countries make a secular transition towards cashless societies, the credit card transaction space will continue to reap the rewards of this trend via swipe fees and other services. Globally, Visa has been at the forefront of this space, accounting for more than 45% and 68% of all credit card and debit card transactions, respectively. Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) has it eyes set on capturing more market share from competitors, notably American Express via securing long-term branded credit card relationships with Costco, Fidelity and USAA. Visa has recently signed a partnership with PayPal which allows U.S. merchants with a Visa payWave reader to accept PayPal as a form of payment thus leveraging Visa’s payments network while benefiting Visa and merchants alike. Visa is unique in that it does not take on any financial liability as it serves as an intermediary to process payment transactions and capturing a fee for its payments technology/network. I feel that Visa is a great long-term holding that offers growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. This thesis is further supported by the most recent earnings announcement. Continue reading "Visa Delivers - Visa Europe Integration Begins To Shine"

Visa - A Great Long-Term Core Holding

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Visa’s worldwide industry leading payments technology, dominance in the credit transaction space, secular growth towards cashless societies, Visa Europe acquisition, growing dividends, share buybacks and accelerating revenue and EPS growth culminate into a compelling investment case as a great long-term portfolio holding. As many countries make a secular transition towards cashless societies, the credit card transaction space will continue to reap the rewards of this trend via swipe fees and other services. Globally, Visa has been at the forefront of this space, accounting for more than 45% and 68% of all credit card and debit card transactions, respectively. Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) has it eyes set on capturing more market share from competitors such as Mastercard and more notably American Express in recent months via securing long-term branded credit card relationships with Costco, Fidelity and USAA. Visa has recently signed a partnership with PayPal which allows U.S. merchants with a Visa payWave reader to accept PayPal as a form of payment thus leveraging Visa’s payments network while benefiting Visa and merchants alike. Visa is unique in that it does not take on any financial liability as it serves as an intermediary to process payment transactions and capturing a fee for its payments technology/network. I feel that Visa is a great long-term holding that offers growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. Continue reading "Visa - A Great Long-Term Core Holding"