Date: June 25, 2007.
From: MarketClub Headquarters
Subject: Apple's new iPhone
There's an old adage on Wall Street that goes something like this, to make money in the market you "buy the rumor and sell on the news".
What this adage reminds me of is the upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone.
Let me be right up front with you. I am a huge fan of Apple (not just a computer company anymore). I have been using Apple computers since 1982. Hey, that's 25 years I have been buying Apples and tapping away at their keyboards.
How time flies.
OK, enough with the sentimental stuff... so here we are just days and hours away from what everyone at Apple would like us to believe is the product launch of the century.
Is Apple going to sell 10 million iPhones in 12 months?
Is all the hype already built into the stock price?
If Apple fails to sell 10 million iPhones, is that a huge failure in the eyes of the market?
But hey, let's be fair, the phone is cool, way cool. So what if the cost is $499 or $599 ... Apple has reached icon status like few other companies in the world It's not the money, it's the status and the cool factor of owning an iPhone that matters most to users, Forget the fact that they just paid an arm and a leg for a communication and entertainment device.
But, there's more, or a Steve Jobs would say ... "Oh, And There's Just One More Thing".
Well Steve Jobs is more than a comeback kid. Here's a guy who in his early 50's (he was born on the 24th of February 1955) who has to be the coolest guy on the planet, after all it was Steve who saved Apple from extinction
But not so fast, Apple stock has been on a tear, and lots of investors are betting the iPhone is going to be a huge success ... how huge? That's what the market is going to tell us on Monday when Apple stock opens up to trade after its rock star debut this weekend.
But nothing goes up forever, and that's what got me thinking about that old Wall Street adage "Buy the rumor sell on the News".
Now, I am not saying that you do just that, buy the rumor and sell on the news. What I am saying is that come this weekend, the iPhone goes on sale at 6.p.m. Friday across the country. The speculation on Monday is going to go something like the first weekend of a major new movie release. You know, you've probably heard it every weekend ... box office receipts were x millions of dollars, but analysts expected a bigger opening and were disappointed with ticket sales. Or it could go something like this, record opening for iPhone, Apple scores a slam dunk with long lines of iphoneiacs (this is a name I coined for people who have gotta be the first to have an iPhone) waiting outside all AT&T stores nationwide.
We will see.
The Chinese have a saying/curse, "... may you live in interesting times." Well, if your Apple or AT&T I guess these are very interesting times.
The key to Apples fortune with the iPhone is to watch the market action on Monday and Tuesday. This action will tell the true story of were the iPhone is going to lead Apples stock price.
Come Monday, professional traders are going to judge how much of the iPhone hype is already built into the market and what is the upside potential for this stock. It's all based on perception.
Big weekend, but not big enough. Small weekend but lot's of interest in buying the phone later. It's all perception.
But, as Steve Jobs would say, "Oh, And There's Just One More Thing". That one more thing is MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" approach. The chart clearly shows on September 5, 2006, MarketClub dynamically flashed a buy signal at $70 a share.
The question is when does MarketClub get out? The only way to answer that question is to watch this video.
One last thought.
I can't help thinking that Bill Gates is out there somewhere thinking to himself "I should have killed Apple years ago." and "Why can't I be cool like Steve".
Old rivalries never end, they just get more interesting.
That's all for today.
Don't forget to tune into the Apple stock show this coming Monday on the NASDAQ, it ought to be interesting.
Every success trading Apple.
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