First published on October 29, 2008. Not much has changed.
Regardless of what others might say, there is no quick fix for the global economy.
To illustrate this point, a friend of mine recently sent me a chart which I would like to share with you. This charts shows that we may be going into a prolonged period of no growth in the overall stock market. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,132.52 on March 10th, 2000. The NASDAQ market is in many ways more important than the DOW, and should be considered more of a leading indicator. If that is truly the case, then we have been in a bear market for the last eight years.
Trading throughout the balance of this decade and into the early part of the next decade is going to be the key to survival and for recovering the profits in your portfolio. We strongly recommend that you approach these markets with some level of expertise and knowledge of technical trading.
The future is going to be the future and we need to take advantage of every moment and prepare ourselves to be the very best we can be in whatever business or endeavor we are pursuing.
Every success in the future,
49 thoughts on “This is a very sobering chart...”
It might have been more interesting to show a 150-year graph that took in the crash of the 1870s and the deep recession of the late 1890s. What strikes me in this graph is that the first plateau in it isn't a plateau at all; it is much closer to a classic crash and "organic," unmediated recovery. To extrapolate a more stable plateau this time around based on its immediate predecessor (roughly, 1964-1983), in which various federally-mandated mechanisms were in place to prevent a market meltdown, and the government cut us loose from the gold standard and printed lots of paper money, seems to me to invite comparisons you might not wish. Bad logic is our worst enemy at times like these (for help in recognizing classic ways to reason badly, see http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/). We see a lot of appeals to it nowadays in push polling: To ask, as this page does, "Are you happy at what it going on in DC and the economy?" tries to elicit a unitary response to what are two distinct questions many voters might well answer differently, and in nuanced ways even within each one. What if one thought the economy was doing as well as might be expected for the moderation with which the government has put money into it to stimulate it and provide jobs for the newly unemployed, and that it would do far worse if the TEA party extremists in the GOP had their way instead of being left outside the door without a pit to pose in while the mainstream of both parties forged a difficult compromise? What if one felt that on the whole the politicians in DC were doing the best they could except for those radicals on the right whose agenda has always been the dismantling of government altogether? Your "poll" really doesn't ask any of this, so your data from respondents is probably not going to be very useful in any intellectually honest way. If you really do want valid information, ask the right questions. And for the rest of you, question the methodology of every assertion you read. There are a lot of people shooting their mouths off these days who really don't know how to think very well at all, and worse, others deliberately disseminating misinformation calculated to fugle those of you who can indeed think rationally but neglect to do so. This is morally inexcusable, but beyond that it is self-defeating. Bad thinking leads to bad market decisions and in a zero-sum system like commodities speculation, such an error can be very costly indeed.
Even if he could produce a (LEGAL)B.C.he still could not be president.There is one other requrment in the constitution.In order to be president both parents need to be natural born citizens of this country.His father was born in Kenya.When he was running for the senate this was brought to his attention and his response was "I'm not running for president".And he was correct in that statement as it is not a requerment for a senator but it is for a president and for him to make that statement shows that he was aware of that. GO FIGURE !!!!!!!
I wonder whether we could really regard the NASDAQ's price action as the definitive trend, as stated in the article, because:
1) It was swamped by a technology bubble peak in 2000; so, its relative price action since then is skewed.
2) The S&P500, because it represents a broader market, is what should give the true picture of the stock market.
These are, however, the thoughts of a novice.
I'm afraid that the great pride many of us had when the first black President was elected was sorely misplaced. His failure to benefit all Americans, not just his own race (which, in fact, he benefited the least of any modern day Presidents) will go down in history as a stumbling block to the character and capabilities of blacks for a long time to come. I don't think that is fair, but that is the way people will think. The Holy Bible is once again proven correct, put your trust in God, not in people.
To blame the politicians is so futile and shows helplessness. The citizen has voted (or not voted at all) the politicians in place, hence to blame them is to blame our own selves.
This chart does not show capitalism but one of its operations on steroids. Among other capitalistic steroids (beyond betting on venture) is usury and insurance (payments forced, pooled and bet to protect usury). All this, along with government and big fund money games, only place heavy debt on populations rather than assure a steady support for the expansion of goods and services and the freedom that a medium of exchange allows.
When making quick money off money becomes the primary game there can be no result but a cancerous expansion of usury with its resulting debt and inflation. Making money off money is done on the backs of the herd by marketing for numbers. The sound and orderly exchange of goods and the solid building of essential services over time is lost in the numbers game.
Script from usury has no substance behind it except population numbers and death rates. True wealth is agrarian. Systems that build on this expand on conquests and servitude, debt, controlled scarcity and a number of other spurious means. Usury pushing the expansion of commerce is almost always terminal to the social environment it feeds from.
Rudolph Penner was director of the CBO Congressional Budget Office from Nixon to Bush 41. In this 2 hr interview shares how Supply Side Reagononics was viewed in opposition to Kensian Economics, and how his thoughts changed during his years.
He also shares what political maneuverings took place from presidency to presidency. He comments as well on the current 2011 deficit crisis.
Penner describes forecasting as more of an art than science and how in order to protect his credibility he courted the Academic world. He describes how the press would terminate an interview occasionally, not wishing to hear both sides. He describes personalities in Congress and budgetary shenanigans How they (CBO) viewed the GDP as opposed to Congress..
I found Penner's view from the inside quite an interesting read.
This debacle has been brewing since the repeal of Glass-Stigal for regulation of financial institutions established after the 1929 collapse. Greenspan wanted a hands off approach to the banking system saying the market would self correct for any fraud. He recently made a statement that he was wrong there should have been more investigation into derivatives and Credit Default Swaps. For Moody's to rate them (CDO) as AAA was fraudulent and criminal.
I cringed when Bush 41 and Bush 43 went into Iraq and again into Afghanistan. That region is known as "The graveyard of Empires". It nearly bankrupted England and then again bankrupted the USSR in the 70s and Now the US has spent its treasure and blood in this region for what? So the Taliban would fight us on their own turf and keep the fight off US soil? It's definitly not for oil! Less than 3% of the supply comes from that region.
My mother used to say judge them by their actions not by what they say. Looking at the actions of government The Whitehouse is Infested more than ever before by Goldman Sachs alumni. I thought it was a campaign promise by this president to get rid of the good old boy mentality and cronyisim in Washingto and limit the influence of the Military Industo Complex. The stimulis was a bald face transfer of the peoples wealth to the wealtiest in the nation. The future is for the people to become economic slaves with no time to be educated and vote wisely. Maybe the retired Baby Boomers will research and revolt.
We need some one in the presidential office like a Ron Paul, who would return the nation back to Constitutional sanity.
The dream is over. Too late to fix it now.
impeached? he hasn't done anything illegal that we know of.. I heard that about Bush too.. atleast with Obama, he's viewed in a better light throughout the world then Bush. If your gonna frown upon Obama then you need to frown upon bush and every other president. Obama has done nothing to cause this mess.. absolutely nothing. and he can't do anything to fix it. to put all your hope in one man to solve all of our problems is totally unrealistic. then to blame him for all our problems is even more unrealistic. no one, nothing can change the state of our economy. our society requires infinite growth. infinite growth is impossible. we can not have infinite growth. like every civilization in the past, they all collapsed b/c infinite growth is not sustainable. too many people on this planet. too many problems. too few resources. Obama is not the problem. the problem is all of us to dum to realize we ourselves caused this by the way we live.. and of course the corrupt politicians in washington!! you were right though about one term politicians. i agree with that. every congressman or woman gets pushed around by the mighty corporation filling their pockets with their money.. getting hired by them once they leave office.. too many conflicts of interest.. things are too chaotic. society as itself cna not be sustained b/c too many problems and we blame one person for everything. we are in for a real crap storm that the world has never seen.. 2008 was just the icing on the cake.. our country is bankrupt, we are runniing out of oil, and the worlds population expands by an additional 100mm people every year requiring more and more food, water, shelter, energy and other resources.. it can not be sustained! it will collapse. whetherr its now, next year or in 50 years.. we will see a total worlwide civilization collapse of society..
It's not the japanese. Way back soon after WWII, charles
Degaulle, later PM or prez of France said. The US is exporting it's inflation as we had deficits back then importing German cars, may be French and Italian as well? Well, we have not changed, we just moved our inflation east? The Far East.
No one in the history of the world likely has had as much debt as you and yours own today? And they want more, more, more! They spend the money buying votes and paying liberal lawyer hit squads to de-christianize America.
I think congress and the prez have declared a financial jihad against the taxpayers in America. Or mybe it is Tora, Tora, Tora as they bomb us with more debt? More debt, no jobs, but raises for themselves. And they are supposed to "represent" the people of their districts? They seem far more interested in seeing just how much they can stick it to the taxpayers.
Isn't this remarkable how similar to the Boston Tea Party days. We are supposed to have reps, but our royalty, the Banking Empire and the "elected royalty" in congress don't have any interest in being reps. They represent the party now, not the voters and both parties are part of the Banking Empire that controls DC and funds elections/campaigns. We are at the same position as was they whom threw the tea overbord. We are taxed without representation! But we still have the vote, and need to use it to throw out most of PC DC.
You only need to look at Syria, at Libya today to see what govt can and will do if challenged? And recall the 1956 crushing of a Hungarian desire for freedom by soviet tanks. Then in Teiniean Sq in China and a crushing of "trouble makers" during iran's last elections! In tolerant govts do look out for themselves, just like we recently witnessed in DC over a deficit! And the Banking Empire won!
We are responsible for the financial mess that we are in. Most people sat around paralized over the past 20 years,saying we are the little guy who has no power to influence our elected officials. We have stood by and let them destroy our county. Finally, we have awaken, thanks to the "Tea Party". Now is the time plan for the ncxt election. We can change thing like we did in the 2010 election. This may be your last opportunity. Don't blow it.
Lies and disgrace: Why don't you want to impeach Bush ???
A chart without a horizontal index is meaningless.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel but our Congress is yet to find it and our President wouldn't recognize it if he saw it. The suggestion that we all become independents is nonsense. Rather we should work toward our elected representatives participating in Social Security, Medicare, and all the other programs they have concocted for the rest of us and toward a flat tax. Income taxes cannot support all of these vote-buying schemes. We need to participate in primary elections or we will not have honest candidates to support in the general elections and we must keep the elected one's feet to the fire to stop this spending spree that has gone on way too long. It is doable but it will not be easy.
Interesting chart... but what it doesn't show in that macro perspective is all the opportunities to make money. I recently alerted my friends to SH, DOG, PSQ, etc. as ways to make money when the markets turn South. Now, they owe me at least a dinner out!
The laws in the land don't apply to top elite---deregulation of the mortgages was a shameless act and our congress is to blame.
I think you are correct. The 2020 these people are talking about will never accur as good times, for we will all be hand fed my our world goverment. and most will never realize what has happened to them. So Sorry Very sad
QE1 ,QE2 ,QE3 All wrong live in a balanced budget everybody is screaming it. Well they are all wrong, keep on printing money till the dollar is worth 20 cents then default, then really make the world suffer give the overseas dollars the tax free status so as the dollars can come home and plunge the world into darkness. Teach them a lesson in finance as the almighty @ 20 cents is worth more than any currency in the world so all the wrongs that you have been screaming will be right. Come on think outside the box.
Why on earth were you still in this market anyway? It has been built on nothing at all.
I just took some heavy losses. Now that I sold everything at the low I can guarantee you that tomorrow we are going to have the biggest rally in the history of mankind. I hope others are more fortunate I am...
We have met the enemy and it not us. We trusted them and they betrayed us.
Same goes for Euroland. Asia is like cloud computing, nebulous at best.
Washington gave all our value added manufacturing jobs away, the huge area where GDP counts.
Time to flush the Washington toilet before they paper us into slavery. If not, we are freaking doomed.
This all started when the first Nissan landed on our shores and we wanted the toys from Asia at a good price. From there we gave up making things here ( corp profits) and start to ship our mgf there and they, learn from what we were making how to make it cheaper, faster and cra...r, but did we mind that it last 12minute after we got in home...and all the time our gov was making our air better, w.comp, EDD, OSA and all the other fed protections that we said..thats good..I think.. or was it some left wing group that got out and made noise while the rest of us went to work and slowly fell asleep, like those poor soul, on the Titanic, thinking someone at the wheel really knew what they were doing. Now the Feds have us all in a chock hold making us cough up more money to run a goverment that we can ill afford.
We the people are the problem. We put those bums in office and they want the perks and will do, say, be what ever it takes to stay there. Its our fault true and straight where we are. We put them there, but how do we give up all those perks, those freebies that we love and want the Gov to keep giving while crying about the taxes and the laws and the issues the state of affairs is in. Poor us. We are in quick sand and if we wiggle we sink faster so we all stay still and hope that someone will come from heaven or where-ever and will save us and the day. Hello..no one is coming! what we need NOW... is what we did when we left England...is it possible.. yes...but there is no way anyone is going to do that on the streets..yet... maybe by not paying the Pit bull tax collector, all of us at one time to make it clear what we the people are saying because no one seems to listening... but who would take that chance... and when the gov figures out that is the only way we can have our next Rev....ion, they will simply do this... have us all pay our taxes on our birthdays instead of on one day.. Divide and Conquer..when that happens you can be sure we are truly lost. Just my opinion as a Nation and as a People...but fear not...it happened to Rome and it will happen again. So grap your pot of Gold and run baby run OR ?
Problem with the chart...
We have not had "100 years of capitalism." If we did, we would not have 18 and 21-year down cycles. We have a mixed economy at best - on the verge of becoming much more socialistic.
Capitalism, the laissez-faire kind, would be greatly appreciated. Unfortunately, it has yet to exist...certainly not in this country.
Instead of bi-partisan lets all go uni-registration. Just go andre-register as an Independent
One action that has the best chance to get the little man heard is:
Let's all, Republicans and Democrats take a little time to change our voter registration to independent!!
Then, drop an e-mail to your senators and representatives and let them know. I did it already.
This is a very sobering day!
CORRECTION: Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, administrate.
IMPEACH OBAMA NOW!!!
I doubt if it would change the basic picture of eras(except 1900 to 1920) but this chart is misleading and should not be shown as is. Corrections required.
1) The index has to be put is real terms( ie adjusted by the CPI) to be fit for purpose. You will then find that in the 20 years to 1920 it went up more than shown whereas in 64 to 82 and 2000 to today it went DOWN big time .
2) To be correct psychologically it has to be on a log scale so the same slope represents the same rate of change on the low end of the graph and the high end. The upward slope which you label as flat 1900 -1920 is in fact far steeper that you give it credit fro by using a linear.
I love the nature of the comments. They all focus on yesterday's news? Washington wants you to buy into their delusions of grandeur. There are much bigger forces at work here than can be exerted by Disneyland on the Potomac, or anywhere else the politicians gather. The top of the page shows a road map, one we've always followed in the U.S. equity markets (and I'm guessing we're probably not alone in that respect in other equity markets). We're in a secular bear market and have been since 1999-2000. As the suggestion also indicates, we've got more time to run. But that begs the issue: what do we do to make some money. Secular bear markets are not devoid of opportunities on the long side, where most people's comfort level lies. The record annual percentage gain in the Dow Jones Industrials was 66.69%. It occurred in 1933. It happened in the grand daddy of all secular bears which lasted from 1929 to 1954 in which two of the top ten annual gains were measured. So there's money to be made although it's not going to be as easy as it was from 1982 to 1999. All one needs to do is read the map. I suppose the fact that we're in a secular bear might be sobering to some. Probably the sooner one treats it as an indicator rather than a threat, the more sober ones behavior might become?
From the post. Regardless of what others might say, there is no quick fix for the global economy.
How true. How do you eliminate a mortgage or other debt? You either pay it off or renege and just walk away? But how can a govt walk away from it's country?
This leaves pay it off. And for America stop the borrowing of money and just print it so there is a moderate surplus. Since all money does or should flow though the govt from it's taxing power (if it does not flow overseas, the surplus must be used to buy back, especially from our enemies, a portion of the bonds, etc, they hold and thus reduce the ND. With the goal of driving the N debt to zero. This would essentially be controlled deflation, which is not a sin, unlike the depression which was uncontrolled deflation due to the nation being undercapitalized (now we are over capitalized.) And in order to prevent the cure from being worse than the disease it will take 60 to 100 years to drive the ND to zero. And an excellent opportunity for the voters to purge all these know nothing big spenders from elected office and to purge all these liberals from tenureship at most big state universities and to bring order back to local and state union excesses and run away pensions/HC bennies! And to eliminate attack lawyer groups such as the ACLU who all seem to be hell bent on de-Christianizing America the beautiful!
PC DC is now under seige by We the people and this will not be over until it is over! This is the beginning, not the end! O and Reid and Pelosi should all resign!
deleveraging is a real. In the U.S., the consumer accounts for 70% of GDP....so as multinationals lobby Congress and the Senate to continue to eliminate U.S. jobs (illegal immigrants taking the blue collar jobs and imported H1B visa holders (from India, China and South Korea) taking the U.S. college grad jobs (wholly supported by strategy of U.S. Chamber of COmmerce---see CompeteAmerica.org statesments documenting this strategy) ....the "engine" of consumption is shrinking, and the more Americans you fire, or reduce their pay, the more the U.S. economy will contract. The rich buying tiffany's and BMW's cannot support a 14 trillion dollar economy. Thats just factual.
So, like it or not, a strong, employed and decent wage for the middle class is a NECESSARY CONDITION of a strong U.S. economy. Without consumers, the U.S will crumble---because multinationals who export only hire 17% (and shrinking every year by a full percentage point) of all U.S. workers. Game over.
Most of them yes! O is a big question mark since he claims ntural born citizenship based on his prodical BC. It was lost, now it is found? How many Americans, especially of his curious early years, have had their BC lost? None? Is the only one?
hello to all,
(forgive me my poor english,im dutch-speaking) but you r all in a bad mood and concers about usa....which i can understand.
What do you think about Europe.....we have the same problem.
The future will be in asia but didnt we created this situation all by ourselves?
And pointed to the forex market.....if you made a winning trade,you will be happy and proud no? (me yes) but dont forget
that somebody else loose that money...
wish you all good luck and a happy life
Capitalism does not create money, nor does it create debt. And the economy does not create money either. The economy only determines who has the money created by the govt. And why are we taxpayers in hock for the reckless spending habits of our elected officials? We are in hock because they borrow money from the bank. Where did this bank get money to lend it to the govt in the first place?
Why does the govt borrow money at all? It, the govt, is empowered by the it's founding document, the Constitution, to print money, to put money in circulation. Money has no stored value, all it has is purchasing power, which changes as the amount of money in circulation, and to some extent is actually circulating. Inflation/deflation are not the same as the cost of living. A depression is the a major stoppage in the movement of money, or as they say a recession is when your neighbor gets laid off and a depression is when you get laid off.
Inflation is an increase in the money in circulation, only can be done by the govt, while deflation, not depression is a decrease in the money in circulation, also done, believe it not, by the govt. Just because I spend a dollar I had yesterday and no longer have it does not mean this dollar was destroyed or taken out of ciculation. Heck, you might now hae it.
And where does govt debt come from? Most govt debt comes from banks, or from foreign govts now. Doesn't the govt issue bonds or other interest bearing notes in return for cash? And the ND determines how much they can borrow and get what? Fed Res notes? An increase in the debt limit is new cash put into cirrculation, and taxpayers are on the hook, enslaved by our elected officials to pay the tribute, oops the interest to the Banking Empire in America.
Back to inflation/deflation. With inflation you get more of less while with deflation you get less of more. You get +/- money for the same work/labor, but each dollar has -/+ purchasing power. Capital. What is capital? It is simply unspent money, cash. If you a dime you have "capital". But if you have a car payment you have debt. And when the govt spends more cash, they don't spend debt, you the taxpayers get responsibility for paying off this debt which amounts to a mortgage on the nation.
What is the danger of just printing money? Well, Germany did that, and Argentina. The danger is rampant inflation. But we have continuous inflation in America since WWII. A college grad in 1956 might have made $4800/year. Now they make what? $48,000/year? Are they 10 times smarter now to be worth that much? (This is not taking into account what they think of themselves?) (Only the prez thinks he has all the answers and just needs to spend more and more money to impose his answers on America. And I guess needs to have more and more trillions to accomplish re-distribution of money or wealth?)
Essentially we have been ripped off for close to 100 years now by the Banking Empire, the head of this snake is the fed res. And I assume this Banking Empire has it's roots in european royalty banking practices, not the banking practices of a free country prior to 1913?
i think there is a correction going on, my father in law died few years back and he used to say 1929, was bad stale bread and cup of coffee. that time we did not have thse trillions of loans? Hope for the best.Buy American,no foreign cars etc. no 4x4 big luxury cars, no waste , save save save.
We Are No Longer "A Goverrnment Of The People, For The People, By The People"...We, The People Who Elect These Congressmen Should Be Able To Vote On Their Pensions, Healthcare And Benefits...Maybe Then They Will Listen To The People Who Elected Them!!! Presently They are Rich And Secure And Should Care Less About The People...Also, Before They Are Republicans And Democrats, Aren't They Americans First???
Sorry, capitalism is in ascendance. Hopefully, cronyism is on the way out.
Sorry, capitalism is in ascendance. Hopefully, cronyism is on the way out.
>Washington under this administration is a complete disgrace.<
Read some Wikileaks, Best we ever had, Best in the world.(1st time we demand more from others,It was always we give in.)
I can see your future ~~~ Your grandkids will memorise and celebrate his birthday, Learn his speaches, And school trips to his Grand DC memeral ~ of corse 1 foot bigger than Lincoln.
1 step up.
Sorry for the truth - We should want to celebrate 1st black.
a complete disgrace is when the world boos our leader, The other one.
Good Morning Adam, The key word in your article is capitalism! Capitalism is on the way out thanks to the childern of the greatest generation. We are a pig nation for all the same reasons pigs are pigs in europe. Spoiled and Godless!
Thank you, Lynn
The results above certainly don't speak well for our elected leaders.
But, who can blame people.
Congress deregulates the mortgage market and totally screwed up one of
the biggest industries in the country. And now we have a fiasco on our
Then they point the figure at the Wall Street machine and the big banks
and say they were to blame?
All I know is that people well to jail during the S & L crises.
How come there are no congressmen paying the piper for their mess?
Then we have a debt ceiling problem and they wait until the last second
to get a deal worked out?
No wonder no one has faith in our fearless leaders.
>my vision has not made itself clear<
Look to Japan
Broker memo, Euro banks under $3.00 share avoid, Under $10.00 sell. I think i saw a Loyd London bank?
Could it be we are at the zenith of a 100 year cycle?
There is an old saying: Those that can do, those that can't teach.
How many Czars are teachers that can't.
How many cabinet members are front persons for Czars who did not go through "advise and concent" procedure?
All is going according to plan......... Bankrupt the global economy so they can usher in the new world regime and unified global currency, prepare to receive the mark. For no man will be able to buy or sell without the mark of the beast.
We can not afford to have career politicians anymore. We need to vote out the incumbent in every election. We need to elected candidates that are severing for the love of our county not their wallets and power. Washington under this administration is a complete disgrace. I have not seen so many lies and misleading actions every before. Obama needs to be impeached now if we have a chance. The 2012 election is to far away rid of of the looser of a president. If this is the way our county is headed maybe it is time to think of moving to another. Good Luck America!
Unfortunately, for the 90+ percent of us throughout the world whom are not wealthy enough to be unaffected by the pangs of the Global Unification of markets, 2018 can not come quick enough. We are in a paradigm shift that in terms of my vision has not made itself clear enough to define it's parameters.
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