Here is what I don't think is going to happen in 2012

It Doesn’t Matter What You Think Going Into 2012!

Let me say that again: It Doesn’t Matter What You Think going into 2012!

Why would I say something like that as we come to the end of 2011?

Well here’s the cruel reality of the marketplace ...

It doesn’t matter who's right and who's wrong with their 2012 predictions. What matters most is where these markets are headed, and that you as a trader get the direction right.

MARKET DIRECTION … is the single most important element in trading. It’s one of the keys to trading success. As we head into 2012, you have to understand that these are trading markets and not buy and hold markets anymore.
We are likely to stay in this mode for some time to come.

As I said, what matters most is that you get the direction of the market right. You can only determine the trend by using pure market action and the easiest way to do this is by using a program that can tell you in plain English what the market is doing.

Don’t let the hype, hoopla, news, and the chat rooms fool you. A market can only do three things: it can go UP, DOWN, or SIDEWAYS – that’s it!

When you hear about the next hot or cold market that is headed for the stars or the basement, just say to yourself “it doesn’t matter.” That way, you can divorce yourself from all the market noise and just focus on market action. Is the market going UP, DOWN, or SIDEWAYS? That is all you have to figure out

I invite you to take a couple of minutes to watch this educational video. This video is all about common sense trading in 2012 and will help you eliminate the number one account killer – emotion.

Here’s to thinking “it doesn’t matter what you think,” it’s the direction of the market that is important.

Let the markets have their say … all you have to do is listen.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
Co-creator, MarketClub

20 thoughts on “Here is what I don't think is going to happen in 2012

  1. I believe the bond market will drive up bond yields due to the debt situation despite whatever measures the Fed uses to maintain them at zero. The Bond Markets are the only instrument of control in this increasingly dangerous world (other than war) as it will punish governments for 'sub-optimal' policies, e.g. watch Europe change government after government in reaction to the Bond Markets of the respective countries. The question is 'Who is Next', and when. If the US Bond Market starts going down in a substantial way forcing interest rates up, the Republican nominee will win the Presidential election, if not,(sideways to higher this next year) Obama will be re-elected, but it will be close. It is that simple to this political amateur.

  2. When you have a debt laden system the only way to survive is to have a very advanced and liquid financial trading system. This is why the dollar and U.S. Govt. bonds remain so strong. . In historical context we could look to Spain and Netherlands between 1500-1700. Spain repeatedly went belly up once their debt reached ten times govt. revenue while the Netherlands sustained debt up to 12-15X. This was because the Dutch economy was urban and trade oriented and liquid while the Spanish economy was mostly rural and stuck in largely illiquid land assets.

    If the U.S. can refrain from yet another cakewalk war dragging on for years costing trillions of dollars not to mention the endless cost of maimed personnel and other human cost and suffering - I believe the U.S. should be able to muddle through the next decade. There is a breaking point somewhere there in the j-curve though. Maintaining a national security system eating up a third of your revenues is a train crash heading into ballooning costs of medicare, medicaid federal employee pension funds. These issues have been robbed for decades, leaving them with Govt bonds. Which probably will be traded close to zero percent yield if needed as we muddle through. It could work, just we desperately don´t need another another war.

  3. The ETF Report copyright 2010
    Lawrence Sarsoun 321-259-4729
    [email protected] Melbourne, Florida
    Dec. 26, 2011

    ……. New Year!! Ooops, what happened to the Happy? Well, maybe we can show you how to make it happy. The first thing you’ll have to learn is that you have to sue the …….. that have been … you for years. We have done some serious research (not only financial, but spiritual, as well), and think we can make a case for that old debbil, Satan, in cahoots with some mortal fellows as well, the folks at The Federal Reserve. Let’s just say they are a new-fangled branch of that same group of thieves that Jesus ran into years ago, The Money-Changers. The Money-Changers, you have to admit, were sorta like a cartel, engaging in what we could call a Monopoly. They had taken over control of the Temple Money. Mr. Rothschild had warned us years ago that if someone could take of a country’s currency, they could take control of the country, and we, like the stupid sheeple we’ve become, fell for it. We allowed a bunch of people, our Congressmen, to give away control over our monetary affairs to a group of unelected folks who have used this unauthorized power to steal the country.

    The heists have come in stages. Clearly, the greatest heist was in the Great Depression during the 30’s. Not only were many people divested of their wealth in the Stock Market Crash of the 30’s, but then the people were conned into giving up their gold by government edict (where did it go? Who has it now?). Gold is a very durable element. It’s been said that all the gold that’s been mined out of the earth from day one is still extant.

    The second Great Heist took place in 1965 (you didn’t know it, did you?) was when the Federal Reserve was able to stop redemption of its notes into money. The Feds were able to change the legend on the bills from – “This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private, and is redeemable in lawful money at the United States Treasury, or at any Federal Reserve Bank” to “This note is legal tender for all debts public and private”. Clearly this action was illegal, as the Constitution (to this day!!) REQUIRES the states to use only gold and silver money for the settlement of debts. This violation of the law is actionable. What that means is that YOU HAVE A CASE!! They, the Fed., cannot do this to you, or anybody. And once you sink your mind around it, there have been NO legal, binding contracts in this country for over 46 years. Think about it, everything is bogus. I started working when I was 19 or 20. If the government took my money 51 years ago, they owe me gold and silver money back. If they borrowed paper since 1965, they don’t owe any money, they didn’t borrow any. THINK of the ramifications!
    Did your bank lend you dollars (a silver coin) or did they create bank deposits out of the air, and if so, how did they get that miraculous power? Did we, the people, give them such power?

    Years ago, in one of my newsletters, we talked about that old fable, the Emperors New Clothes, and how the child in the story how to be silenced lest the whole world come to find out, oh gosh, oh golly, that the old geezer REALLY didn’t have any clothes on. Well, I say it again, as I did years ago, the U. S. has no money, hasn’t had any for 46 years, the National debt is bogus, there is no need for a debt ceiling, and it might not be a bad idea to get out of these little green pieces of paper that you think are money. I’m converting any that I get into useful stuff like food, water, ammo, and silver.

    Oh, now that YOU know, happy New Year.

  4. Hello Adam,
    this is the fiirst time i write to you. I don't understand exactly if this system is good for intraday trading. What I can see here is that most of the traders using MarketClub is for long term investments. I do small operations with mini NQ, EuroFx, Bund (FGBL) and Sp 500 mainly.

    1. Herman,

      Not sure we are right for you. Intraday trading is a fulltime business and requires a great deal of time for in my opinion very little rewards. The big money and this is a fact I learned as a member of the CME in Chicago, is swing or position trading.

      Thanks for your feedback.


  5. I agree with previous comments. I have used "professional investors" for 20 years. My current investor advisor, had me in and out of various mutual funds. ALL the funds in which I was invested contained (essentially) assortments of stocks (banks, oil, resources etc etc). It was obvious to me for many years that these financial experts, even the big money managers, are using cookie-cutter approaches. So I finally took over my portfolio about 6 months ago. Guess what. I have made more money in the past 6 months than me investor had made in the past 6 years. Really this was not hard to beat, because I had made ZERO. I have 2 portfolios. I initially lost 5 % but I am now up 12% in one portfolio and have broken even in the other. I trade in only one sector of the economy to keep things simple. By doing this I have essentially made (a bit more than) what I would have paid out in commissions/salaries for the "experts". My experience so far supports my initial conjecture; "financial experts" are generally cookie-cutter imposters. As I learn more and more about the markets and trading I hope/expect to do even better.

    1. Peter,

      Congratulations and thanks for sharing your story. At MarketClub our entire mission is to empower investors just like yourseld to go it alone and believe that it can be done. You will be amazed at the results.

      Here is to a great 2012,

  6. Hey Phil, I get the impression you are a contrarian. If you are not a member here's a hot tip for you today. Buy Gold!

    Adam, Thanks for keeping us on the right side of the market.

  7. I think 2012 will be another muddle-through year. The death of the dollar will remain elusive as it continues its rally off a cyclical low. It should be good for at least 10% more, matching four tops of the last five years. This should eventually lead to a correction in stocks of U.S. multinationals (fewer dollars to book back home as revenue and profit). Commodities should drop as well since a rising dollar means that foreign producers and sellers get more units of their local currencies (with which they pay production expenses). This market will then seek equilibrium through lower prices in dollar.

    There will be no more QE, no major war and the world won´t end on Dec. 21st. How anyone in their right mind would take that scam seriously is totally beyond me. Those primitive Mayans believed that the Earth was a disk sitting on the back of a gigantic alligator. So much for their astronomical genius. The guy chiseling that so called calendar probably ran out of stone or maybe he died.

    In 2012 I think attention will increasingly turn to the dangerous state of the United Kingdom economy and financial system. It´s a staggering and largely overlooked mess with total debt at almost 1000% of GDP.

  8. I am enjoying the trade triangle plogs every day but still am not getting the tottal concept of it, this makes me afraid to buy into stocks and contracts in commodities,maybe it is an age thing,I am looking for some reassurance to pull the trigger on somthing. can someone help. thanks paul

  9. Thank you for the reminder Alan. It's easy to get caught up in the sensationalist commentary in the financial media. At the end of the day, it's the markets that decide the direction of the markets and not the news.

  10. I would say the markets will go down until they hit a bottom: Example: S&P500 at below 700 points - could fall further though.

    1. DRS,

      Our longer term monthly Trade Triangle remains bearish. We do not have a downside target that we can measure right now.

      Thanks for your feedback.


  11. "you can be sure the markets will go up, down and sideways" Really? My porfolio has floundered for the past three or so years, even with the help of paid professional fund managers and subscribing to newsletters galore. About two years ago, I took a portion of that portfolio and put it into one specific sector, one that I work in so have somewhat of an ear to the ground - heathcare. And although I have not reaped triple digit returns on "a secret new energy company that even Warren Buffet owns" (see even I can write hyped headines) my strategy has done better than any of the so-called experts and wasted money on newsletters, alerts etc. etc. Sorry for all the cynicism, but it is difficult to keep the emotion out of things. God Bless Us All in 2012! Hans

    1. Hans,

      I see that you are not a MarketClub member. You should give it a try. I think it you put in any of the health care sector stocks into our Trade Triangle engine you will be surprised. Here is the link you need.

      All the best,

  12. Never mind knowing the future with 100% certainty. If you knew with 55% probability they would either have to close the Casino or kill you.

  13. Very good advice, Adam.

    I just read an article on some money managers and where they are putting their money right now. Half of them are prognosticators who have put their clients' money into declining assets in the belief that these assets will eventually go up, and the other half are nervous nellies who have their clients in cash and cash equivalents and have performance histories dating back 10 years that do not even exceed inflation. In other words, clients are paying these so-called professionals to lose money.

    It's fascinating to see them rationalize how European debt will sink the markets, or how natural gas investments will save the day despite tanking for the last 5 years.

    I would love to ask them why they're gambling with their clients' money. Instead of guessing what's going to happen in the market, why not simply wait to see what the market actually does and simply go with it...Sounds a lot less risky.

    And by the way, for those who think that keeping money in cash and treasuries all the time is lower risk, by standard risk assessment formulas, not keeping up with inflation is equivalent to guaranteed failure, which equates to infinite risk. It is this infinite risk that has resulted in trillions of dollars in unfunded pension liabilities as pension finds cannot meet their funding obligations in this low-interest-rate trading (as opposed to buy-and-hold) environment.

    I strongly suggest some of these managers do some back testing using trade triangles; they might be surprised.


  14. First I want to thank you for the basics that I needed.
    Your title caught my attention. Then you lost me. I find nothing in the content that relates to the title message. Unless it might be that what you don't think is going to happen is anything other than up,down or sideways. Ah! None-the-less, I shall continue to perues the site to determine if it's for me.

    Thank you,

    Mr. Hart

    1. Phil,

      Thanks for your feedback. The point I was making, is that no one knows what is going to happen in the future with 100% certainty. The only thing you can be sure of is the markets will go up,down and sideways.

      All the best in 2012,

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