If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple. If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his Double Stop trading technique.
Let me introduce you to one simple technique I've used to pick intraday market direction with 80% accuracy.
Would you like to know if a particular trade has an 80% probability of working? Would you like to know exactly where to enter that trade, and where to exit? Would you like to trade this technique with a 2 point stop loss or less?
It Doesn't Matter if the Market is Going Up or Down, This Simple-to-Learn Method Has a Historical Accuracy of 80 Percent!
Using just two key numbers each day, floor traders and other professionals can try to pick the direction, entry price, stop loss and target price of a particular trade. It doesn't matter if the market is going up or down - this simple to learn method has a historical accuracy of 80%. In fact it's called the 80% Rule.
Each morning you will know what those two key numbers are. Then, if the set up is correct, simply enter the trade, set your stops, set your target price and sit back with a trade that has an 80% expectancy of hitting the target. What could be easier?
Here are the basics for the 80% Rule:
The Value Area (Secret Tip #12): The range of prices where 70% of yesterday's volume took place. For instance, if the value area in the S&Ps is 138500-139000, then 70% of the previous day's volume took place between the prices of 138500-139000.
The 80% Rule: When the market opens above or below the value area, and then gets in the value area for two consecutive half-hour periods. The market then has an 80% chance of filling the value area.
The value area and the 80% rule can be excellent tools for judging potential market direction. Many traders familiar with the value area and the techniques that go along with it use it to help them decide what trades to do each day.
A couple of key points to remember:
If the market opens above the value area, try to enter a short position as close as possible to the top of the value area.
Conversely, if the market opens below the value area, aim to enter any long position as close as possible to the bottom of the value area.
Once you get used to it, you will find that using the value area each day will be valuable in your trading. (Pun intended!)
The 80% rule is a simple way to ride the market as it potentially fills the value area. However, there is an exception to be alert for. If it the market opens above the value area and then goes above or below it, the 80% rule can still come into play. Watch for it to get back into the value area for those important two consecutive brackets or 30-minute bars.
Best Trades to you,
Founder & President- Trading Advantage
Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.