Has Unemployment Started a Long Term Trend?

Stocks are on the rise today due to a better than expected report on February hiring from the Jobs Report. We talk a lot about trading with trend here at MarketClub and it seems that the unemployment rate has established a trend. However it doesn't appear to be trending up or down, but rather sideways. The unemployment rate has remained virtually unchanged for the last three months. So we want to know....

What's ahead for the unemployment rate?

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As always we would love to hear your opinion on the matter. Please leave a comment below.

Every Success,

The MarketClub Team

13 thoughts on “Has Unemployment Started a Long Term Trend?

  1. I suspect these figures are carefully massaged to remove all traces of the under-employed, part-time workers who would prefer to be in full-time employment, and those who have given up looking for work (not always practical to relocate if your spouse has a good job locally). I read somewhere recently that there are almost as many of the latter category as there are in the formal published stats. In other words, one can take the published stats, double the unemployment rate, and it would only include the unemployed and those who have given up. It still wouldn't include those under-employed or part-time.
    Having said this, were the stats any more accurate under previous administrations? Here in the UK, we have literally millions of 'workers' in Public Sector non-jobs (ie they add no real economic value). This is a typical communist approach. It claims to offer people self-respect. Maybe it does. It also distorts the labour market, drives up PSBR, and demotivates those who actually try and produce something for a living.

  2. According to "seeking alpha" this AM:
    "However, according to Gallup measurements, unemployment rose to 9.1% in February from 8.6% previously (no seasonal adjustment), while underemployment (combining unemployed with those working part-time but wanting full-time work) rose to 19.1%. "Regardless of what the government reports, (these) measures show a substantial deterioration since mid-January".

    There are those with college degrees have no desire to work who wish for what was "promised" to them. There are others with and without college degrees who are off to Bakken to work the oil fields and related jobs suach as construction, pipelines, trucking, food services, real estate etc. Same for Marcellus and more. We need oil, natural gas and LNG and will for many years. There are many jobs with good pay if folk are willing and able to relocate and work. Others can wait for the jobs come begging to them which may or may not happen. I know people on both sides and I know which are successful and inspired versus those moaning and groaning and in the dumps. Then there are others with no hope. We can only hope inspiration prevails.

  3. The numbers are again not what they seem. AP and Main Media say that everything is hunky dory but the numbers show an increase in unemployed and underemployed citizens. You have to be analytical in what the media presents as real information.

    1. Yep. Everyone should read Charles Hugh Smith's article on Zero Hedge today "Let's Pretend Jobs Growth..."

  4. Who knows what the real unemployment rate is? It certainly isn't the published rate. As for the market, I am experiencing the same feeling I had near the end of the Dot.Com bubble. To quote Einstein,"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."

    1. The bad part about that is the market doesn't necessarily move based on reality. It moves according to perception. I wonder what Einstein had to say about perception?

  5. I can't answer or vote on something that is put out by our government, most are lies.

    1. I agree. So just switch the question to Which way do you think the lie will trend over the spring/summer months?

  6. The unemployment figures are so skewed, not only does the Government ignore the unemployed who is now off the rolls, but it has never counted the small business owner who has lost all his business and capital due to this depression. If the unemployment figures were honest, they would include all who are unemployed. It's like the inflation figures, they leave out the areas that are truly inflating, food and fuel. They are a scam, and most in this Nation have been buying the fraud.

  7. I think more people are going back to work and seasonal jobs are kicking in early this year because of warmer weather in the North East. However, I am living in a bubble in Washington County Pennsylvania the 3rd largest job growth county in the US where we are benefiting from drill baby drill oil & natural gas and throwing the dice & dealing cards at our casino's. I just love the free markets and global warming and wish the rest of the country would get a clue that they are really awesome for the quality of life.

  8. The way the government counts it if someone is unemployed for over a year and can no longer collect unemployment they go into the "discouraged" category and are no longer in the unemployed category. So the economy just "improved" because unemployment is now "lower". I can see how they do it but "unemployment" is more a feel good statistic than an honest one. Are people in your part of the country better off because the statistic kept by gov't is lower?

    1. What you say is absolutely true. There are people, though that go from being discouraged back to looking for work. Nobody I know has a number for that.

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