STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 2592.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Multiple closes below the June-July uptrend line crossing near 2555.97 are needed to confirm that the rally off June's low has ended while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2592.56. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 2658.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2516.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2503.50.
The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Wednesday's low ahead of the release of this morning's GDP report. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rebound, this month's high crossing at 1375.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1320.00 would confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1375.70. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1395.50. First support is the reaction low crossing near 1320.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1302.70.
INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-31 are needed to confirm that a double top with June's high has been posted. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 153-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 147-23.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.05.
September heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's short covering rebound off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 312.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 270.38.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this week's rebound off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 265.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early August. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 288.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 288.72. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 299.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 259.39.
September Henry natural gas was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a pause or setback is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.929 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the decline off the 2011 high crossing at 3.352 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.186. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the decline off the 2011 high crossing at 3.352. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.929. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.706.
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extended Thursday's breakout below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 82.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early August. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.33 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.33. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 84.24. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 82.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 81.56.
The September Euro was higher overnight and challenging key resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.06. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains into early August. If September renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 118.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.03. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 120.51. Second support is weekly support crossing at 118.74.
The September British Pound was higher overnight and is poised to renew the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.5773 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5586 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.5746. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.5773. First support is July's low crossing at 1.5390. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.5266.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and challenging resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at .10253. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10253 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at .9939 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10253. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10588. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .10040. Second support is weekly support crossing at .9939.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 99.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.35 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 99.28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 99.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 97.40. Second support is the June-July uptrend line crossing near 97.15.
The September Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at .12895 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .12662 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .12854. Second resistance is June's high crossing at .12895. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .12750. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .12662.
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October gold was higher overnight and is poised to test this month's high crossing at 1626.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1626.90 would confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional gains into early August. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1593.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1626.90. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1644.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1550.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 1534.30.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 28.445 are needed to renew the rally off June's low. If September resumes this month's decline, June's low crossing at 26.105 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 28.445. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 29.915. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.425. Second support is June's low crossing at 26.105.
September copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off last Thursday's high, June's low crossing at 325.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.66. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 355.65. First support is the reaction low crossing at 326.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 325.00.
FOOD & FIBER
September coffee close lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 19.55 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the last Thursday's high crossing at 22.85 tempered the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends today's rally, July's high crossing at 23.75 is the next upside target. If September renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 20.85 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.57 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 24.69 is the next upside target.
October cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while extending this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends Wednesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 66.70 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective October needs to close above 75.00 or below 65.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of June's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
December corn was higher overnight as it continues to consolidate below psychological resistance crossing at 8.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above 8.00, it could trigger renewed buying interest that would push new-crop corn prices sharply higher into August. Initial support begins with Tuesday's low crossing at 7.45 1/2 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4.
December wheat was higher overnight but is trading below broken support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.11 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.70 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early August. If December renews the rally off June's low, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.70 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.16 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this summer's rally, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 9.54. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.75 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.50 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 10 70 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.34. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10 70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.50 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.99 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were higher overnight as it continues to consolidate above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.58 1/4. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.58 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to a possible test of June's uptrend line crossing near 15.10 before a bottom is found. If November renews this summer's rally, psychological resistance crossing at 17.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 16.91 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.58 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 15.10.
December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it bounced off the 20-day moving average crossing at 458.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 458.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 509.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 458.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 433.00.
December soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 52.31. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 51.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.20. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 56.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 52.31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.36.
LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed up $1.25 at $95.80.
August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off lat week's low, July's high crossing at 96.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.67 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.95. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 96.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.67. Second support is July's low crossing at 89.75.
August cattle closed up $0.22 at 118.17.
August cattle closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past five days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 120.55 is the next upside target. If August renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 114.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 119.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.55. First support is July's low crossing at 115.45. Second support is April's low crossing at 114.70.
August feeder cattle closed up $1.32 at $136.00.
August Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past six days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
August renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 132.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.50. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 133.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.66.
The markets are clearly being heavily manipulated by the politicians. The question is how long can the facade continue. It is one thing to inflate a balloon with hot air. It is quite another to inflate using hydrogen gas laced with nitroglycerin.