16 thoughts on “The Euro may have topped out on Friday

  1. .........all fiat currencies are going the same direction,to zero or almost zero.The future is anybodyś gues and I believe it definitaly won´t be nice."Believe in God and keep your powder dry"as Oliver Cromwel used to say.Martin

  2. What happened to all the problems with the US economy? It isn't recovering as much as the media hypes it. All the problems with-in the US are soon to resurface and the Dollar continue it's decline. Euro back up to the 1.40's by year end. Euro is still higher than it's inception price. Isn't that considererd an uptrend?

  3. My lucky silver dollar says that eurusd will go up during Sunday - Monday FX trading. I will toss again Monday afternoon. Maybe! I am in Vegas for a couple of weeks and can do all the gambling I need without farting around in the slow Forex markets.
    I would say that if my lucky dollar was to have to make a longer term guess it would be bye-bye eur.

  4. The B-Bands got too wide and the European jawboning got it from the lower to the higher Band just like the SPY. It could be a short term high with a topping tail looking for a pull back to the 18 day MA at 122.00-122.50 for a reset, then re-evaluate. May need for the B-Bands to narrow in again before the next big move,

  5. Unless there is a major philosophical change on spending and other matters involving benefits I don't see a long run improvement. Military issues in that hemisphere may yet come to affect Europe's wealthier nations. I suggest reading the Apocalypse to get the gist of what is happening in Europe and the formation of of an early one world government. Expect the prophesied war, famines, etc. The droughts are now starting in America as an early foretaste of what will come.

    In part I will fall back upon my miserable assortment of Nuveen, etc, junk bond funds which so far have performed better than almost all my equities. I otherwise have a small stash to invest when there is some direction shown in market areas where I am interested.

  6. on a daily and weekly chart the euro is showing bullish momentum divergence, so i reckon it's going up

    1. When these things happen, the big money sees it as well, and as you can not fight them, they will suck your money by doing the contrary. I am not saying you are wrong,ok?

      1. I've started to think that as well , i mean there must be a convergence of information now with i.t where everyone is reaching the same conclusion at the same time and i reckon this may be behind the large swings we see.

  7. Hi, Adam --

    I disagree. I think the Euro has a little more upside left, and the dollar has a bit more downside to go. I don't think that those moves (Euro up, Dollar down) will be large, but I think that we will see the "residual momentum" play out early next week. I think the dollar will gravitate toward the 82 area (closed at 82.71) and the FXE will move higher toward the 124 level. I'm not talking about a big move here, but I will wait before I pull the trigger to go short the Euro and long the dollar.

    Can't wait to see what happens! Thanks for your excellent work, which is consistently illuminating.

  8. On a daily chart the eur-usd is showing bullish mom divergence and also on a weekly chart showing bullish mom divergence

  9. If you look at the chart on the dollar, some serious headwinds at .84
    I think it re-tests the .80 level, and see if it breaks that channel from OCT 2011.
    If it does, we will test .78
    The Euro is not going anywhere. Greece is not imploding. I talk to many people in Greece and they are
    vacationing, sitting at the beach, doing what they do. I am in the USA, born here, and the media makes you
    think it is a 5TH WORLD rock throwing Crisis with fire and dragons. Its not.
    NO Drachma, No end to the euro.
    The only thing that we need to do next is VODEMOUT.

  10. Illusory! The wishful thinking is palpable Will Ben or will he not.

    He will, but not now. N ned to pump when the Dow is over 13,000.

    Keep the gun loaded until Sept when the situation (election outcome), becomes definitive. Be patient and liquid.

  11. Big talk and no action. Merkel, Draghi and co are talking, because they know there is no money available for bailouts. 500 Bi for Spain, 60 % should come from countries which are broke and need bailouts themselves. What Draghi proposes is breaching EU Agreements, but since Adolf, they all know that Agreements are made to be broken. Question: Which country did not break the Maastricht Treaty? So simple, when you do not have the money, you just need to talk like if you had it. And many buy their talk. However the Euro in its current form was flawed from the beginning on. Everybody knew that the southern EU countries had been cooking their books, just to join the Euro, as they have been living nicely from the subsidies and transfers from THAT EU-Social Economy and would be economists from Brussels. Imagine that the EU is making and implementing laws without ever been elected in a democratic process. So look forward for a Euro at 60 cents to the US$.

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