We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Grain Futures--- Grain Futures--- The grain market saw extreme volatility this week especially in the July soybeans which were up over $.50 yesterday hitting a high of 15.46 then reversing and settling unchanged settling today at 14.76 a bushel down 23 cents and has sold off 75 cents in 2 days and that tells me that there’s a possibility that this could be short term high. The November soybeans which I have talked about in previous blogs stating if prices are able to break above 12.40 a bushel hitting a 6 week high continuing its bullish trend I would advise traders to buy soybeans above that level risking $12 stop which is around $400 per mini contract as the trend continues to move higher. The U.S dollar today was slightly lower not impacting many of the commodities today except for a selected few with a really wishy-washy trend and I still think July soybeans are headed higher despite the fact of the tremendous selloff happening in the last 2 days & I think that was just profit taking and there are very few supplies to be sold and that’s the reason prices are headed higher in my opinion. Corn futures continued their bearish trend while still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling slightly higher this afternoon in the December contract at 5.36 still in a directionless trend as record planting took place this week putting corn planting right at the five-year average with very little bullish fundamental news to propel prices higher while wheat futures are still below their 20 and 100 day moving average stuck in an 11 week consolidation with major resistance at 7.40 & major support at 6.65 which was the contract low hit on April 1st so I’m still advising traders to be long the soybean complex and sit on the sidelines in the wheat & corn until a trend develops .TREND: MIXED–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Precious Metal Futures— The precious metals have seen extreme volatility in recent weeks especially last Sunday night when silver was down over $2 an ounce in just a matter of minutes pushing gold down nearly $40 as well before rebounding and stabilizing later in the week. Gold futures for the June contract are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 1,364 going out this Friday at 1,386 up about $25 for the week and traded as low as 1,336 on Sunday night retesting April 1st lows and in my opinion I still believe gold prices are headed lower but I do think volatility will start to slow down. Silver futures for the July contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 22.35 trading as low as 20.25 on the Sunday night settling at 22.50 basically unchanged for the trading day as it seems traders took the day off with extreme volatility in the last 4 days but a relatively quiet trading session today. Chart structure in gold and silver is starting to improve so if you’re looking to get short or long this market you can place a stop above the below the 10 day low or 10 day high minimizing your risk in case the trend does change. Copper futures which have been one of the strongest precious metals due to the fact that the housing recovery has been very solid here in recent months pushing copper prices up and increasing demand settling last Friday at 332.30 currently trading at 330.50 down slightly for the week, however if you look at copper on the daily chart it still has bullish momentum. I’m still recommending short positions in silver and gold but copper is still pretty neutral at this point in time but the commodity market still remains relatively weak especially with the strong U.S dollar again this week as a fundamental shift in interest rates and the U.S dollar might be occurring. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Energy Futures-- Energy futures had a volatile trading week as usual with crude oil basically finishing unchanged this Friday afternoon at 94.10 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average with very little chart structure with giant swings to the upside and to the downside with a possible double top around $97 and if you’re looking to get short this market my recommendation would be to put a stop above 97.35 in case the market does rally settling last Friday at 96.30 basically unchanged for the trading week. Heating oil futures for the June contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average after hitting a 4 week high last Monday down for the 4th consecutive day as we enter the summer when demand for heating oil generally lightens so I’m still not bullish this commodity but I’m still advising traders to basically sit on the sidelines in crude oil and in heating oil and look at unleaded gas which is still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 2.90 with major support 2.70 down 800 points for the week currently trading at 2.84 and I do believe that a bottom has occurred in unleaded gas prices as we enter the demand seasonin the next couple of months. The commodity markets have been extremely volatile in recent weeks with the U.S dollar hitting contract highs a couple of days back, however crude oil and its products have held up very well despite all the negative news with record inventories here in the United States they continue to hang near recent highs and I just wonder how long that is going to continue especially in heating oil & crude oil. TREND: SIDEWAYS –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures in New York are down another 300 points this Friday afternoon hitting a 3 year low currently trading at 127.10 a pound hitting a fresh 3 year low trading far below its 20 &100 day moving averages with solid weather in Brazil and low demand for this product at this point continuing to push prices lower. Coffee futures settled last Friday at 137 a pound finishing down almost 1000 points this week as traders are now pushing prices lower with the next major resistance between 115 – 120 and I do believe prices are headed there in the next couple of weeks, however coffee prices down at those levels will start to look attractive because eventually bear markets end as well as bull markets and I do believe if you can pick up coffee around 115 & your long term investor I think you will be very happy in the long run. There is solid chart structure on the daily chart after having several false breakouts to the upside and downside previously so this one might be the real move to the downside and I do think prices are headed lower at this point in time especially with volatility remaining extremely low which is very surprising to me as we enter frost season down in Brazil. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures in New York finished higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session basically trading around unchanged for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average also hitting a 3 year low this week as well as coffee and they seem to be mirroring each other in recent months to the downside as large supplies and a bearish trend continue to push sugar prices lower. As I’ve talked about several previous blogs I do believe sugar prices are headed down to the July 2010 lows around 14.50 in the next couple of months with huge supplies and lack of demand with a strengthening dollar here in the United States which are all very bearish indicators for prices. I still recommend a short position in July sugar and if you are short this contract currently I would place a stop above the 10 day high in case the trend does change therefore minimizing your risk in case you are wrong. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Orange Juice Futures-- Orange juice futures for the July contract are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and have been by far the strongest soft commodity as the other soft markets continue to the downside but OJ is right near an 8 week high settling last Friday at 142 going out this week around 148 looking to break the 150 level with prices in an 8 week consolidation and if those levels are broken you will see a bullish trend develop in my opinion. Orange juice has been propped up in price lately do to the fact of greening disease down in Florida which could impact prices for several years to come as many of the markets are heading lower but OJ seems to be grinding higher on concerns of smaller crops in the future so if 150 is broken to the upside I would place my stop below 140 risking around 1,500 per contract with excellent chart structure allowing you to place this relatively tight stop. TREND: SIDEWAYS –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures-- Cotton futures in New York continue their bearish momentum down another 55 points in the December contract which is considered the new crop which will be harvested this fall trading at 83.10 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 3 month low continuing its bearish trend. Cotton futures settled at 85.90 last Friday down nearly 300 points as weak Chinese demand has been pushing prices lower and I’m recommending a short position across the board in the cotton market as prices look to continue their downtrend in my opinion. Many of the grain markets have been going down except for the July soybeans which means that we are in a deflationary period for now. Cotton prices are no exception with large crops possibly looming in the next couple of months and the slowdown across Europe and China cotton prices at this point look extremely bearish remember to place a stop above the 10 day high which is risking around 1,500 per contract in case the trend does change and sometimes it does. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cocoa Prices-- Cocoa prices in the July contract are continuing their bearish trend hitting a 5 week low today down another 37 points finishing sharply down for the 3rd consecutive day trading below its 20 day moving average but still above its 100 day moving average which stands at 2234 settling this Friday afternoon at 2246 as good weather in Africa and weak demand is pushing prices lower. In many of my previous blogs I have been bearish cocoa and I still recommend selling the futures contract placing a stop above the 10 day high which is at 2364 with the original breakout at around 2300 risking around $650 per contract as the commodity markets still look weak and vulnerable to further downside action. The next major support in cocoa is at 2200 if that level is broken you can go all way back down the contract lows which was hit several months back at 2050 because the fact that there’s no demand for sugar & coffee so why is there demand for cocoa and I do believe prices are headed lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
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Michael Seery, President
Phone # (800) 615-7649