The Super Bowl Indicator - Seattle Seahawks (Bulls) VS. Denver Broncos (Bears)

Have you ever heard of the Super Bowl Indicator? Who do you want to win? Are you a Bear or a Bull?

How it works

The Super Bowl Indicator rules state that if a team from The National Football Conference (NFC) wins the Super Bowl, a bull market will prevail. If a team from American Football Conference (AFC) wins, a bear market will prevail.

The Denver Broncos are from the AFC, and they will represent the bear market in 2014. The Seattle Seahawks are from the NFC, and they represent the bull market. If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl there is an 80% chance that the markets will rise this year.

I don't know about you, but I want the Seahawks to win.

There are two notable exceptions as of late:

2013 saw the Baltimore Ravens (AFC) win the Super bowl, and the DOW rose 26.5%. This should have been a bear market.

2008 saw the New York Giants (NFC) win the Super Bowl and the DOW fell 33%. This should have been a bull market.

Some notable DOW gains from previous years:

1975 saw a gain of 38% when the Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl IX.

1989 saw a gain of 27% when the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XIX.

2003 saw a gain of 25% when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVII.

With the big game coming up this weekend, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the Super Bowl Indicator. Have a great time with friends and family watching the big game!

Every success,
Jeremy Lutz and

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11 thoughts on “The Super Bowl Indicator - Seattle Seahawks (Bulls) VS. Denver Broncos (Bears)

  1. There is also as statistical correlation between the decline in number of pirates and global warming...

  2. Baltimore Ravens started life as the original Cleveland Browns and I believe the rule says original NFL teams which moved to the AFC are counted as NFC. That is how Pittsburg (original NFL) is counted as a win.

    That means that 2013 also followed the rule.

  3. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow--a very negative event predicting a weather-related bear market (six more weeks of a rather nasty winter).
    The Super Bowl correlation is quite clear--Phil's glimpse of his shadow accurately predicts that the Denver Broncos (bear market)will definitley beat the Seattle Seahawks (bull market)--but it will be close.

  4. I'm not a big football fan but will be watching and hoping Seattle is victorious....that being said, wouldn't you need to graph the winner for each year to see if this "theory " holds any substance.(?)

    It's not unlike predicting a pregnancy "boy or girl" have a 50/50 chance of being right. I do know about others but I won't be buying stocks based on the outcome of the game!

    1. a paired t-test or other similar statistical comparison that looks for significant correlation would be reasonable way to evaluate quantitatively. anyway, seahawks won by a huge margin so the bull market will undoubtedly be a monster. time to go all in!! any cash will be lost returns, absolutely, positively, bet everything on it!

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