This week’s focus turns to the June 2014 Euro currency futures, where recent weak March PMI results leads to a downward path of least resistance. The recent sell off has been supported by ongoing talk that the US might be closer to raising interest rates than previously thought, giving lift to the US Dollar.
We have seen a sharp retracement from the recent swing high of 139.66 posted on March 13, 2014. Last Wednesday and Thursday, we saw two sharp sell offs on increased volume, which would confirm a bearish sentiment for this week. Following the two day sell off, Friday saw a consolidation within Thursday’s range, and we open this week looking for a bearish continuation.
For a swing trade, I would be a seller in the June 2014 Euro futures (CME:6E.M14.E) if the market breaches Friday's low print of 137.64. If this trade were to fill, I would place a protective stop just outside of Thursday's high of 138.44, rolling the stop down behind the trade accordingly. The near-term target for this trade is the 200 Day Moving Average, currently at 137.01.
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