In the previous post about ‘Gold Miners & Inflation’ it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind. Here is a visual to put with that statement.
The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down. The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.
Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout. So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.
Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives. But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.
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4 thoughts on “HUI Timing Boxes”
Got to love how the guy goes after "those gold bugs" as if to totally make everyone forget his very own disastrous cheer leading calls going back since 2011.
Hindsight is so precise.
Too bad it does no good at the hard right edge.
That is interesting that an identical up/down pattern would form like that. And maybe those range bound boxes have some compression information in them. But, the dollar really has to get nailed for any of these commodity based futures or ETFs to rise. Yellen is a pawn. What a mistake she was as the choice for new FED leader - she's a total tool of the big banks.
For those interested: this week's COT Report.
This piece of analysis is entirely introverted and takes no account of the real world at all. In the real world, it is not finding patterns in your coffee or navel that helps you understand where the economy is going, it is economic facts on the ground (not in the grounds).
So look to leading and lagging indicators and there you will find explicable reversions to the norm and the price of gold.
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