Is This Apple's Secret Or One Amazing Coincidence?

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere. Today, I am going to be looking at what could be an amazing coincidence in Apple. It could also be a profitable opportunity for alert traders. Before we get into that, I hope you all had a chance to look at yesterday's special post on gold. If you didn't, please check it out right here.

It is the last day of the trading week, with both the stock and bond markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

I want to lay out for you a potential trading scenario for Apple stock. To that end, I have shown on the below daily chart what I think is going to happen in the future.

In approximately 7 days from now, give or take a couple of days, Apple should offer an amazing buy opportunity if this scenario plays out like I think it will.

Apple Daily Chart

It appears after making a high, Apple sort of drifts back for the next 33 to 34 days before it once again has a sharp upward move. If that same scenario plays out this time, then somewhere between the 10th and 12th of April would be in ideal time to look at getting long stock in Apple. On April 10th, Apple is going to begin taking preorders for its new Apple Watch, coincidence maybe. I'm sure there will be legions of loyal Apple fans waiting and wanting the latest gadget from Apple.

How To Trade Apple

Naturally, I would like to see our weekly Trade Triangle kick in, but you could also potentially use the Parabolic SAR indicator, providing that the monthly Trade Triangle, which represents the overall trend, remains green and positive. The other option is to get long on a move and over the down sloping trending on the chart. This scenario would mimic the two previous occasions when Apple broke over its trendline.

How High Can Apple Go?

How high can Apple go when it breaks over the trendline? I expect Apple, should it break over the down sloping trendline, to move between $20 and $30 to the upside. That would potentially put a upside target zone on Apple of $145 to $155.

What Can Go Wrong With This Trade?

If the same scenario plays out, it's a pretty good bet that Apple is going to go higher. However, in any type of investing there are always risks and there are no guarantees or sure things. Money management should be used in any type of investing scenario. Should Apple break above the down sloping trendline, it should continue to move higher. You could of course, have a situation where Apple falls back, stops everyone out and then moves higher again. If that happens, you should be mentally prepared to re-enter the trade.

How Long Will The Trade Last?

Previously when Apple had broken over its trendline, it moved higher for the next 28 and 23 days. So a good average would be around 25 days after breaking over the down sloping trendline.

Only time will tell if this same scenario plays out with Apple, but I think the odds are pretty high that it will. Let's keep an eagle eye on Apple next week when we all return after the Easter break.

To all our members who celebrate Easter, we wish you all the very best for this special holiday.

Don't forget to check out the special post on gold. If you like this type of report, please let us know in your comments below. I'd also like to hear what you think about today's post on Apple with a comment below this post, pro or con. I would enjoy hearing your viewpoint.

Have a great Easter everyone, I will catch up with you next week.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
Co-Creator, MarketClub

12 thoughts on “Is This Apple's Secret Or One Amazing Coincidence?

    1. Susan,

      Difficult to say. I am going to stick to the Trade Triangles. Long term predictions assume too many variables for my taste and are subject to change.

      All the best,

  1. Can you suggest an option trade for the AAPL breakout?

  2. Thanks! We cannot see the future with certainty. Only probability. If you take high probablity trades you will do okay.

  3. Those daily pennant watchers will concur with your analysis. I was glad to see others are seeing the same thing. Thank you

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