Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,202 while currently trading at 1,170 an ounce down about $30 for the trading week remaining incredibly choppy as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out in last week’s trade when prices bumped up against 1,200 as I’m sitting on the sidelines at the current time waiting for another breakout to occur and that could happen soon as prices remain very weak. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to break the critical 1,170 level and the second critical level is 1,160 if that level is broken I would have to think that the bear market is underway as I see no reason to own gold at the current time as all the interest is in the stock market which is right near all-time highs. Gold only seems to rally due to the fact that Greece could possibly exit the Euro Zone and that’s why I got stopped out in last week’s trade. The chart structure in gold is outstanding but if prices do break I will be recommending a short position while placing my stop above the 10 day high which 1,205 risking around $35 or $1,200 risk per mini contract plus slippage and commission so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 16.15 an ounce while currently trading at 15.80 down about $.35 for the trading week as I’m now recommending a short position as prices hit a 3 month low as my recommendation is to sell at 15.80 placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 16.46 risking $.66 or $660 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Volatility in silver is extremely low in recent weeks as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as the next level of resistance is 15.40 as prices traded as low as 15.48 today rallying slightly as the trend remains to the downside as there is no interest at the current time in the precious metals. The U.S dollar is slightly higher this afternoon still trading around 95.50 stuck in its recent trading range but that’s still negative towards the precious metals so continue to play this to the downside and take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure is outstanding and the risk/reward is in your favor as traders await next Friday’s monthly unemployment report which should send volatility back into this market and if the 15.40 level is broken which is been tested on a half-dozen times look for the bear market to begin as I see lower prices are ahead. Silver prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if you have followed any of my previous blogs you understand I’m a trend follower because trading with the path of least resistance is the best way to go in my opinion over the long haul.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session currently trading at 58.87 a barrel while settling last Friday in New York at 59.97 down about $1 for the trading week still stuck in nonvolatile sideways trend despite the fact that prices hit a two week low in today’s trade as I’ve been recommending a short position for over a month and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high at 61.81 risking around $3 or $1,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Crude oil is trading below its 20 day but still slightly above its 100 day moving average as I’ve traded crude oil for 20 years and I can’t remember such a nonvolatile stretch like we’ve had in the last several months consolidating the giant move to the upside. The next breakout level is below 57.00 and if that level is broken prices could move sharply lower but that’s a big if as volatility is extremely low at the current time. Next week is the 4th Of July holiday weekend as I think volatility will remain low until Friday’s monthly unemployment report which could dictate the short term trend.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 154.52 while currently trading at 152.52 down 200 points for the trading week hitting a 6 week low as I’m recommending a short position while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 156.17 risking around $1,400 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure will not improve for another 5 days. Prices are trading below their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average as I talked about in yesterday’s blog I believe a head and shoulders top has been created plus the fact that the grain market is skyrocketing due to massive floods here in the Midwestern part of the United States sending feed cost higher which is negative to meat prices so continue to take advantage of any rallies as I think a top has been formed. Cattle prices have risen about 10% in the last four months and has been one of the strongest markets over the last several years as tight supplies have kept prices near historical highs, however I’m recommending the December contract which I think will have more expansion therefore continuing to put pressure on prices and as a technical analyst I love the fact that prices hit a 6 week low with a head and shoulders top so continue to play this to the downside as I’m also recommending a short position in the hog market.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE:SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday at 11.55 a pound while currently trading at 11.92 up about 37 points for the week as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last month and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which is just an eyelash away at 12.12 risking around 20 points or $220 dollars per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Sugar prices hit a 6 year low as I remember in 2010 prices were trading around 35 rallying with many of the commodity markets due to quantitative easing as that’s how far prices have dropped as production numbers in Brazil are relatively high. Harvest is underway which generally creates a seasonal low at harvest time, however I’m a technical trader and I will continue to stick to the rules and place my stop at the 10 day high as overproduction over the last several years has sent prices to multi year lows and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 63.90 while currently trading in New York this Friday afternoon at 65.90 up 200 points for the trading week hitting a 2 week high now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in quite some time, however I’m still sitting on the sidelines as I need a 4 week high before entering so I remain neutral. China still holds much of the world supplies as carryover levels are very high, however it looks like with weather problems in Texas and Oklahoma this year the crop will not be a record coupled with the fact that the grain market has surged hitting new highs in today’s trade pushing up cotton prices as well as were now entering the very volatile summer season with large price swings. Prices have gone nowhere over the last six months which is very surprising because cotton is an extremely volatile commodity but has been very nonvolatile in 2015 so keep a close eye on this market as the chart structure is solid and a breakout looks to be looming as the commodity markets are starting a bullish trend once again.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract are sharply higher up 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions settling last Friday at 3.68 a bushel while currently trading at 4.02 rallying about $.35 on massive flooding in the Midwestern part of the United States causing production concerns sending prices that we’ve not seen since April 8th hitting a 10 week high. Corn futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average forming a triple bottom in Monday’s trade around the 3.65 level, however I’m still sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is absolutely horrific at the current time as the 10 day low is almost $.40 away which does not meet my criteria to enter, however I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that would be countertrend trading. Traders are awaiting next Tuesday’s USDA acres report which will show estimates lowering uncertainty in this market because at the current time estimates are around 89 million acres but nobody really knows what the report will state due to the wet conditions especially in the state of Iowa so expect high volatility next week. Tuesday will give us some type of estimate of what production could be and if you are a farmer as I’ve talked about in previous blogs if prices were 4.25/4.50 I would definitely take advantage of that situation and sell your cash crop due to the fact that carryover levels are extremely high as there’s no supply problems despite this weather scare. As I write this article in central Illinois the corn crop here is outstanding and is already about 4 feet tall green and lush so this is only affecting certain areas of the Midwest but as a speculator sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 61.65 while currently trading at 60.80 down slightly for the trading week and traded as low as 59.17 in Monday’s trade before profit-taking ensued pushing prices higher as I’m still bearish this market and if you took the original recommendation from around the 69.00 level place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 64.32 risking about 300 points or $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels. The chart structure will not improve until later next week so 64.32 will remain the 10 day high so you have to be patient and play by the rules as now cattle prices have fallen out of bed and I’m recommending a short position in cattle as grain prices are exploding this afternoon hitting new multi-month highs due to massive rains here in the Midwestern part of the United States sending the meat sector lower as feed costs are a negative influence on the price of meats. Hog prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and as my theory states the farther away prices trade from their moving average the stronger the trend as I do think that 59.17 will be retested in next week’s trade so continue to take advantage of any rallies while maintaining the proper stop loss continuing to keep a proper risk management technique risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading above their 20 but slightly below their 100 day moving average continuing its sideways trend settling last Friday in New York at 130 while currently trading at 136 as I do think prices have bottomed out around the 128 level, however prices have not hit a four week high so I’m waiting for a breakout to occur. The chart structure is improving dramatically as volatility remains relatively low as I do think a breakout to the upside is in the cards as prices hit a 2 week high in today’s trade as many of the agricultural markets have bottomed and are moving higher especially the grain market due to weather problems. The problem with coffee is the fact that we had huge production coming out of Brazil coupled with the fact that of a very weak Brazilian Real against the U.S dollar pushing many agricultural products that are grown in Brazil lower including orange juice, sugar and coffee in 2015, however everything comes to an end and it certainly looks to me that prices are going higher. I deal with many producers down in Brazil and in my opinion I would start to buy the actual cash coffee as I think prices are low enough but for speculators wait for the breakout which would be a 4 week high before entering which could happen in next week’s trade.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4 .92 a bushel rallying sharply this week settling around 5.68 up about $.76 for the trading week on concerns about moisture conditions here in the Great Plains of the United States plus dryness in Canada and France as the weather market certainly is underway in the wheat market sending prices to a six-month high. If you have been reading any of my previous blogs I have been avoiding this market as the chart structure and volatility are out of control, however I am not recommending any type of short position in this market as a breakout has occurred but the risk/reward is not your favor at the current time so wait for better chart structure to develop before entering. Wheat prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its extreme volatility as traders await next Tuesday’s USDA crop report and are keeping a close eye on the Great Plains weather situation on a daily basis but look at other markets with less risk as this market is too dangerous in my opinion at the current time but it looks like higher prices are ahead. If you are a producer take advantage of the weather scare and sell some of your cash crop before prices come back down as the fundamental situation is still bearish in my opinion so take advantage of this gift as we have seen this before.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the September contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its slow grinding bullish trend settling last Friday at 121.80 while trading at 121.40 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as I’m recommending a bullish position buying at today’s price while placing your stop below the 10 day low which in Monday’s trade will be at 118.10 risking around 300 points or $500 per contract plus slippage and commission. Rumors of smaller ending stocks have pushed prices higher as a bottoming pattern in my opinion has developed as many of the commodity markets especially the agricultural commodities are moving to the upside as I think the risk/reward is your favor. Orange juice can become an extremely volatile commodity with large price swings so take advantage of the tight chart structure and play this one to the upside. Orange Juice prices have been going sideways for the last 3 months bottoming out around the 110 level as the next major resistance is at 126 and if that’s broken prices would be hitting a 4 month high.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Trading Theory

Where Should You Place Your Stops? Identifying where stops exist in the market is an important lesson to learn because placing a correct stop loss that will improve your trading tremendously over the course of time. Nobody knows for sure where stops are located, however I have learned a couple of things over my 20 year career and I have a general idea where stops are placed and why. Buy stops are generally placed above the 10 day high as well as above contract highs as the bulls generally are buying more and the short selling are getting stopped out. Sell stops are usually placed at the 10 day low as well as below contract lows which means the shorts are adding to their position and the longs are getting stopped out as they figure they are wrong. The other common places to have stops are at certain moving averages such as the 20 or 100 day moving average where traders think either the trend is turning bullish or the market is starting to break down. Placing stops to close or not at important price levels can get very frustrating because the market can stop you out and then go the direction that you thought leaving you behind and out of the market. Placing stops is one of the most important aspects of trading in my opinion.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: (800) 615-7649
mseery@seeryfutures.com

One thought on “Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

  1. Once again - not to mention last week - your commentary on Wheat infuriates me to no end. I believe last week you said the chart structure was "horrible". That was so ludicrous i wonder you are looking at. It wasn't horrible-- it was perfect! Have you ever heard of 8 hr and 6 hr and 4 hr and 3 hr charts? I was Buying September below 490 and again on Monday when the it broke up and thru a perfectly technical chart structure. You watch way too many markets to offer intelligent and useful commentary on Wheat. The fact that you missed this week's breakout-- thru all kinds of perfectly sound and perfectly technical chart structure, reveals how completely out of tune you are with Wheat. Wheat is the only market i trade with 20 - 25 charts with different time frames of the same contract month. Wheat's chart structure is NEVER horrible. Your analysis, however. . .

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