Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,132 an ounce while currently trading at 1,082 down about $50 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bearish trend as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,160 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week. Gold prices are trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next level of support is around 1,050 as I think that could be tested in next week’s trade as there’s no reason to own gold and if you’ve been reading any of my previous blogs you understand how bearish I am of the entire commodity sector as a whole. Silver prices are also hitting a six year low as I’m also recommending a short position in that market as all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is slightly lower this afternoon as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the stock market and I don’t see that trend ending any time soon. The U.S dollar is near a six week which continues to keep a lid on commodity prices coupled with the fact of higher U.S interest rates possibly coming later in the year as both act as negative influences on commodities historically speaking.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.83 an ounce while currently trading at 14.33 down $.50 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high at 15.50 as the chart structure will improve starting next week. I sound like a broken record as I continue to recommend bearish commodity plays as deflation is the problem not inflation as a strong U.S dollar will continue throughout 2015 in my opinion as gold prices are sharply lower this week as I’ve been recommending a short position in that market as the commodity market looks to have another leg down in my opinion. The problem with the precious metals and silver is the fact that all the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is right around its all-time highs as nobody wants to own the precious metals as a safe haven as the trend is your friend and clearly the trend in silver is to downside with the next major support at $14 and if that’s broken who knows how low prices could actually go. Silver futures are trading below their 20 day and far below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines and wait for the risk/reward to be in your favor which includes better chart structure.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the September contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling in New York last Friday at 51.21 currently trading at 48.45 down nearly $3 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last two months and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 54.00 a barrel. The trend in the commodity markets is weak as everything seems to be melting down and remember as a commodity trader in my opinion you must trade with the trend so continue to play this to the downside. Crude oil has huge worldwide supplies coupled with a strong U.S dollar as I think prices will re-test the $45 level so continue to place the proper stop loss trying to get as much as 75% of the trend as picking tops and bottoms is impossible over the long haul in my opinion. The stop loss will not improve for another week so you’re going to have to be patient as volatility currently is high and should remain so for weeks to come as I still believe prices are too expensive.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 151.22 while currently trading at 147.22 down about 400 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 153 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 153 which will start to be lowered next week. Cattle prices hit a 5 month low in today’s trade as a possible retest of the six-month low of 142 could be in the cards over the next several weeks as the commodity markets in general look extremely weak and I still think prices are way too expensive compared to many other markets. Prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the U.S dollar remains in a secular bullish trend. Hog prices in recent weeks have been coming down and I think that’s starting to pressure cattle prices as well and if you did not take this trade the chart structure is very poor at the current time as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are beginning to trend and have better chart structure developing.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE:POOR

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.96 while currently trading at 11.34 hitting a six year low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away at 12.80 but I want to keep an eye on this market as the chart structure will improve next week as it looks like we will be playing this to the downside. Sugar futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the long-term and short-term trend remain intact as the commodity markets in general remain weak and if you’ve been following my blogs you understand that I’ve been recommending a short position in many different sectors, however a 150 point risk in sugar is too high as the risk/reward is not in your favor in my opinion but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as over supplies continue to keep a lid on prices.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract finished the week in Chicago on a sour note down 9 cents at 4.05 a bushel after settling last Friday at 4.31 as excellent weather in the Midwestern part of the United States has been pressuring prices here in the short term. Corn futures are trading below their 20 but slightly above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure has been terrible over the last three weeks as prices moved straight up and now straight down so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets with less risk. As I had talked about in many previous blogs I was hoping that producers would be taking advantage of any price rally and start hedging around 4.25/4.50 which was right near the top as I don’t think prices are going back to those levels as there are still outstanding corn fields coupled with the fact that commodity prices are extremely bearish and look to head lower so wait for better chart structure to develop as a speculator as the risk/reward is not your favor at the current time. The grain market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks but the only grain that I’m currently involved in is soybeans to the short side as I think the soybean crop will still be outstanding in the year 2015.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: TERRIBLE

Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 60.67 while currently trading at 61.67 up about 100 points for the trading week in an extremely volatile week as prices have had large fluctuations and if you took the original trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was in Wednesdays trade at 62.75 risking around 100 points or $400 per contract plus slippage and commission. I’ve been recommending a short position in hogs for over two months as this trade has certainly trended lower over the course of time and if we are stopped out don’t be stubborn and move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside. As a commodity trader I always think that you should trade with the trend and currently I’m short hog and cattle futures as I think they are overpriced with the rest of the commodity markets as risk/reward and solid chart structure is what you should look for before entering into a trade. If you did not take the original recommendation I would still sell even at today’s price while risking $400 as I still think lower prices are ahead as I think the risk/reward is in your favor.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 128.40 while currently trading at 122.00 down around 600 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 132.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. The original recommendation was to sell around the 128 level as the chart structure at that time was outstanding as the risk/reward was is your favor however, if you have not taken this trade you’re going to have to wait for some type price rally before entering. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I think a possible retest of the January 2014 lows around 105 could happen in the weeks to come due to the fact with large worldwide supplies coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar versus the Brazilian Real so I remain bearish.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the December contract which is concerned the new crop which will be harvested in Autumn is trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that this trend is lower but prices have gone nowhere in the last 10 months as I have not traded cotton for quite some time as I’m still advising investors to avoid this market and look for markets that are trending. Last Friday prices settled in New York at 65.22 while currently trading at 64.60 trading slightly lower for the week as trading in choppy markets is extremely difficult to trade successful in my opinion as prices have very little fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as China holds all the cards in this market as they are the largest importer in the world and hold around 50% of the world stockpiles, as the U.S dollar continues to climb hitting a six week high which is negative prices and commodity prices in general. The weather in the southern part of the United States has improved as grain prices are also starting to fall as the weather situation is starting to produce better looking crops at this point but avoid this market like the plague as I don’t think we will be involved in cotton for quite some time.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - AVOID

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 10.06 a bushel while currently trading at 9.68 down nearly $.40 for the trading week down and lower for the 3rd consecutive session as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the $10 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the most recent high which is also the 10 day high at 10.45 as the chart structure is poor at the current time. Soybean prices are trading below their 20 and just barely above their 100 day moving average hitting a 4 week low in today’s trade as the chart structure will start to improve next week on a daily basis as outstanding weather here in the Midwestern part of the United States is putting pressure on prices this week. Traders are awaiting the August 12th USDA crop report which will show production numbers and official acreage which nobody seems to have full grasp on at this time but with the weather continues to look nice over the next 7-10 day forecast as I think lower prices are ahead. I still believe come October that prices will hit new contract lows as worldwide supplies are massive coupled with the fact that Brazil is also going to produce another record crop in 2016 barring any type of weather problem.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Trading Theory

Where Should You Place Your Stops?

Identifying where stops exist in the market is an important lesson to learn because placing a correct stop loss that will improve your trading tremendously over the course of time. Nobody knows for sure where stops are located, however I have learned a couple of things over my 20 year career and I have a general idea where stops are placed and why. Buy stops are generally placed above the 10 day high as well as above contract highs as the bulls generally are buying more and the short selling are getting stopped out. Sell stops are usually placed at the 10 day low as well as below contract lows which means the shorts are adding to their position and the longs are getting stopped out as they figure they are wrong. The other common places to have stops are at certain moving averages such as the 20 or 100 day moving average where traders think either the trend is turning bullish or the market is starting to break down. Placing stops to close or not at important price levels can get very frustrating because the market can stop you out and then go the direction that you thought leaving you behind and out of the market. Placing stops is one of the most important aspects of trading in my opinion.
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: (800) 615-7649
mseery@seeryfutures.com

One thought on “Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

  1. Quote from Corn: ". . . the chart structure has been terrible over the last three weeks as prices moved straight up and now straight down. . . "

    Mr. Seary: Have you ever heard of the MACD? It's a technical indicator developed by Gerald Appel in the late 70s. Or the indicator called the Slow Stochastic? Or the RSI (Relative Strength Index)? Or the 10 Over 20 Crossover (where a position is entered when the 10 moving average (MA) crosses over the 20 MA? Because all the grains topped-out at the end of June -- including CORN -- and all these technical indicators were screaming, "Sell! SELL!!" So for those of us that cashed-out of our Long Positions and went Short-- why? Because the Charts were telling us to go Short-- because Charts are excellent communicators. Furthermore: As traders, as investors, we are looking for Profitable opportunities. We want charts to go up, and we want charts to go down. If you missed the rally on the way up, and missed the ride down, WHY are you giving anybody advice about the grain charts?

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