Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract continued its bearish trend trading lower for the 4th consecutive session hitting a fresh 7-month low trading at 1,270 an ounce. I still see no reason to own this commodity as the NASDAQ 100 hit another all-time high this week and all of the interest lies in the equity market, not gold. In my opinion, if you are short a futures contract stay short as the next level of support is around 1,260 which could be tested in tomorrows trade. I still think we could retest the December 12th low of 1,251 & if that occurs prices could head down to the 1,200 level as a strong U.S dollar continues to impact gold prices as that market is also hovering right near an 11 month high & looks to even move higher in my opinion. Gold futures are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower and if you're short a futures contract continue to place the proper stop above the 2-week high standing at 1,313 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I am certainly not recommending any bullish position as that would be counter-trend trading as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract is sharply higher this Friday afternoon due to the fact that OPEC raised production by only 600,000 barrels which was much less than the possible 1 million that they spoke about earlier in the week sending prices to a 3 week high up $3.15 in today's action at 68.69 barrel. I am not involved in this market, but after today's announcement, I am bullish crude oil prices and the entire energy sector as strong worldwide demand will continue to push prices higher in my opinion as this was a very bullish announcement. Oil prices are now trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this has finally stopped the bearish momentum as I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position at this time as I think we will retest the contract high around $73 a barrel in the coming months ahead. Fundamentally speaking the API report was bullish earlier in the week as inventories were lower than expected coupled with the fact that we are entering the high demand season for driving as there will be a lot of cars on the road come the 4th of July holiday which is just a couple weeks away. Today's announcement was bullish, not bearish although production was raised, perception is all that matters & the perception at this time is that demand is outweighing supply & that the recent pullback in price was just a healthy retracement over the course of time in my opinion.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 119/19 while currently trading at 119/27 up eight ticks for the trading week continuing its short-term bullish momentum as the yield stands at 2.91% as prices have remained choppy over the last several months. If you are a longer-term trader, I certainly would be short the 10-year notes as the Atlanta Federal Reserve announced that they think the 2nd quarter GDP could be as high as 4.4%, which hasn't happened in over a decade and that would be a very bearish fundamental factor towards bond yields. I still think historically speaking yields are way too low for this type of economic growth. If you are a trader, I will wait for the 4-week breakout which will happen if prices break last weeks low of 118.29 and if that does occur I would recommend a short position once again. I think the uncertainty about the Trump tariff war possibly developing with China is what is holding prices up here in the short term, but I think that situation will end up in a positive solution. However, it might take some time. The 10-year note is trading right at its 20 and 100-day moving average as there is no trend even though we are at about a 2-month high. The volatility is also starting to increase which is a good thing to see as I remain bullish the U.S equity market as I think eventually that market will move higher as bond yields will also move higher so look to play this to the downside.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract traded lower by 80 points this week at 116.95 a pound as we are hovering right near a 3-year low as the front-month contract which is July is now trading at 112 continuing its bearish momentum on a weekly basis. Clearly, this trend is lower as I am not involved as it looks to me that prices will retest the 110 level in the coming weeks ahead as the entire agricultural sector is getting hit hard to the downside due to the Trump tariffs & until that situation is resolved, I think prices will remain depressed. Growing conditions in Brazil are ideal at this time as we should produce an outstanding crop; therefore, supplies are coming onto the market as there is really nothing bullish at this time. All of the bad news has probably been reflected in the price, but there is very little interest in buying coffee at this time. Once the Trump tariffs situation is resolved I think of bullish trends will come back across the board. However, a strong U.S dollar & a trade war are not bullish the commodity markets which also curbs demand. The volatility remains extremely low for such a historically volatile commodity so sit on the sidelines and let's be patient and wait for the chart structure to improve as the risk/reward is not in your favor to be involved just yet.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract is currently trading at 3.78 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.82 down slightly for the week. But that's not telling you the whole story as prices hit a multi-year low earlier in the week at 3.60 possibly causing a spike bottom as the volatility is extremely high at present. Prices peaked out on May 24th at 4.29 and now has dropped about $0.70 as I think prices are very cheap at these levels as I will not go short, however, if you are short a futures contract I would be taking profits at this time. Heavy rains throughout the Midwestern part of the United States this week continue to put pressure on prices as we should produce an outstanding crop in 2018 as traders are awaiting the June 29th planting prospective report as that will dictate short-term price action here in the short term. Traders are also keeping an eye of the 7/10 day weather forecast as mild temperatures continue with rain almost across the board, but at this point, we are raining too much as some of the fields are starting to flood. Corn futures are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is clearly to the downside as we are experiencing extremely oversold conditions at this time. I will be looking at a bullish position in the weeks ahead as its a long growing season as we could still develop some weather problem in the weeks ahead. The Trump tariffs have also really hurt agricultural prices as farmers across the board are in a world of pain at this time as I certainly hope this situation gets resolved as I do want to see higher prices come about.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.30 a bushel while currently trading at 9.06 & now has traded lower 14 out of the previous 16 trading sessions as this market has entirely fallen out of bed hitting a 10 year low earlier in the week at 8.64 before profit-taking ensued pushing prices off session lows. Soybean prices peaked out on May 29th at 10.60 so within a matter of 3-weeks prices dropped nearly $2 due to two different situations. The first being outstanding growing conditions in the Midwest as we have rain every single day and I have not seen the sun in Illinois for about 4-days as it rains 24 hours a day. Couple that with the Trump tariffs that are crushing the agricultural markets as this commodity has nothing going for it at the current time except for the fact of extremely oversold conditions. There is some flooding in local soybean fields as we are experiencing too much rain and if you are short a futures contract, I would be taking profits at these levels. I still think prices look incredibly cheap, but I'm not recommending any position as I will wait for the chart structure to improve, but I do believe all of the bad news has already been reflected into the price. Traders are awaiting the June 29th acreage report as that will undoubtedly dictate where short-term price action goes as volatility is exceptionally high at the current time and will remain that way throughout the summer months. However, I do think a possible spike bottom at 8.64 has occurred as that could be the final washout to the downside, and I'm not bearish at these depressed levels.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract are ending the week on a positive note up 20 points at 12.41 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 13.35 unchanged for the trading week still looking for some trend to develop. Sugar prices are trading slightly below their 20 and 100-day moving average as a possible double bottom may have been created around the 12.00 level over the last couple weeks as we continue to experience higher lows on the daily chart which is a bullish technical indicator that prices are in a bottoming pattern in my opinion. Fundamentally speaking the world still is awash in sugar as Thailand experienced a record crop coupled with the fact that India is now exporting sugar as they were a net importer over the last several years. However, a lot of this poor fundamental news has already been dictated into the price in my opinion. Oil prices hit a 3-week high today up over $3 a barrel, and I think that will start to support sugar prices. Sugar is used as biodiesel as we need the commodity markets, in general, to begin to move higher, but they have been moving lower due to the Trump tariff talks as the agricultural markets have been utterly decimated over the last several weeks. I don't have any soft commodity recommendations at the current time as coffee also hit a multi-year low this week so keep a close eye on this market. I do think a bottoming out pattern is occurring as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis as the risk/reward will be in your favor soon.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract is currently trading at 5.04 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 5.13 hitting a 5-month low in this week's trade as prices traded at 4.80 at one point as there was absolute panic earlier in the week due to the Trump tariff talks. In my opinion, I believe wheat is the strongest commodity out of the grain sector as I still have a bullish bias to the upside as there are still concerns about growing conditions in the southern part of the Great Plains as I think this market sold off due to the fact of the weakness in corn and soybeans. Wheat prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower but is mixed as prices have been choppy over the last several months. I think we could trade over the $6 level down the road as it is a very long growing season as I will not take a short position. However, the chart structure is poor in wheat and the rest of the grain market because we just fell out of bed over the last several weeks as I think that situation will change so keep a close on this market as we could be involved soon. Traders are awaiting the June 29th planting prospective report, and that could replace these bearish scenarios very quickly or add to the problem as we will have to see what that report states. I still think that eventually, the Trump tariffs will end and there will be something positive in the long run, and when that happens you will see a relief rally across the board in my opinion, and if you are short a futures contract, I would be taking profits at this time.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

One thought on “Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

  1. I found constant and sharp down trend in Dow, Gold and Oil, which are presently at near about 24274, 1267 and 68.95 respectively. at present as on 25-06-2018. this may happened due to impact of trade-war or any other reason, however, all concerned charts became bearish.

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