Why Gold Futures Are Falling

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract experienced a wild trade and volatile trading week settling last Friday in New York at 1,672 an ounce while currently trading at 1,519, ending the week on a sour note down about $175 as prices have now hit a 2 1/2 month low.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst trading session in 33 years yesterday, and margin calls across the board are to blame for the declines in the precious metals. Volatility is extraordinarily high at the current time, all due to the Coronavirus, which is wreaking havoc on all sectors.

I do not have any precious metal recommendations as I will be looking at possible bullish positions in the coming days ahead if prices get out of control to the downside. However, the chart structure is terrible as the risk/reward is not in your favor, and sometimes doing nothing is the best thing to do.

Gold prices are now trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is negative. The amazing thing about it is prices hit a contract high and 7 year high just in Monday's trade slightly above the $1,700 level, and that's how crazy this market has become, but I do think the downside is limited.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.26 an ounce while currently trading at 15.28 down nearly $2 for the week hitting an 8-month low.

I am not involved in silver or any of the precious metals as there has been massive liquidation due to the Coronavirus panic causing the US equity market to have its worst day in 33 years yesterday. The DOW was down over 2,400 points as margin calls across-the-board produced massive liquidation. The volatility at the current time is very high, and I don't think that the situation is going to change as prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower. However, the chart structure is terrible; therefore, the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a bullish or bearish position.

Silver prices have now traded lower for the 6th consecutive session ending the week on a sour note down about $0.70. However, I do believe the downside is limited at these depressed prices as I will not go short, so be patient as we could be involved in the next couple of weeks.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Live Cattle Futures

Cattle futures in the April contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 105.75 while currently trading at 101.25 down about 450 points continuing its bearish momentum as the Coronavirus situation is killing demand.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 124.50 level. If you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 112.65. However, in next week's trade, the stop loss will be lowered; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced. The commodity markets across the board were sharply lower this week as the stock market had its worst day since 1987 yesterday dropping almost 2,400 points as weakening demand across the board continues to put pressure on prices.

Cattle prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the volatility is extremely high as we have had many limit up and limit down days over the last couple of weeks. I don't think that situation is going to change anytime soon, but I remain bearish as I think 90 could be touched in the coming days ahead, so stay short.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2.68 a bushel while currently trading at 2.75 up about $0.07 for the trading week possibly creating a spike bottom on Monday when prices traded as low as 2.55 as the volatility certainly has expanded over the last several days.

I have been recommending a bearish position over the last month or so from around the 2.97 level. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high on a closing basis only standing at 2.82 as we are just an eyelash away as the chart structure is excellent at the current time.

Prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains negative as prices are still hovering right near a 10-month low. The Coronavirus has certainly caused panic throughout many different sectors, increasing volatility across the board, and I don't think that's going to end anytime soon. I still think prices are expensive so stay short as the risk/reward remains in your favor.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Rice Futures

Rice prices experienced a wild trading week after settling last Friday in Chicago at 12.91 while currently trading at 13.30 up about $0.40 for the trading week and higher for the 4th session after hitting a 3 month low in Monday's trade only to rally significantly then as this remains the strongest grain at the current time.

I have been recommending a bearish position from the 13.15 level, and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high, which stands at 13.69 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk.

Rice prices are still trading below their 20-day but now above their 100-day moving average. The trend is mixed as the volatility has exploded over the last several days as historically speaking, rice is one of the most volatile commodities as I'm kind of perplexed at this recent rally that we have witnessed. The Coronavirus has put heavy pressure on many different commodities sectors, including soybeans, but it's not having much impact on rice prices. However, I will not second guess as I will remain short.

TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the May contract is trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session after settling last Friday in Chicago at 8.91 a bushel while currently trading at 8.51 down another 40 cents due to the Coronavirus curbing demand.

I'm not involved, but I do think lower prices are ahead. I have multiple bearish grain recommendations presently, and if you are short, stay short, in my opinion, as the commodity markets across the board look to remain weak in the coming weeks ahead.

Soybean prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is getting stronger weekly. Until some resolution with this Coronavirus comes about, I see no reason to be a buyer. The next major level of support is around the 8.25 area. If that is broken, you could possibly break the $8 level in the coming days ahead as spring planting is right around the bend as then this will become a weather market that will undoubtedly dictate short-term price action. There is absolute panic across the board as nobody wants to own anything as the stock market had its worst day since 1987 yesterday, as that is also putting pressure on soybeans and the grain market.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5.15 a bushel while currently trading at 5.10 down about $0.05 for the trading week breaking the $5 level in yesterday's trade as prices have hit a 6 month low.

I have been recommending a bearish position from the 5.44 level. If you took that trade, the stop loss now stands at 5.34 as an exit strategy. However, in 2 trading sessions, that will be lowered to 5.26 as the chart structure will turn outstanding, therefore, reducing the monetary risk.

I also have bearish recommendations in oats and rice. I still think the grain market looks weak as the Coronavirus is causing panic throughout many commodity sectors. However, for the bearish momentum to continue, prices have to break yesterday's low of 4.97, and if that does occur, I think we could go down to the 4.80 level in the coming days ahead.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

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