Dismal Jobs Number Doesn't Stop Futures

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2821 while currently trading at 2904 ending the week on a positive note trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session. The bullish trend continues even though the unemployment rate is near 15%, which is the highest since the Great Depression.

I am currently not involved, but if you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I do have a bullish bias. I think higher prices are ahead as the U.S. economy is finally starting to open up as optimism has come about, which is a terrific thing to see.

The Nasdaq-100 has now turned positive in 2020 as the technology sector is doing exceptionally well, and I still see more positive returns going forward. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20-day but still below its 100-day moving average, which is just an eyelash away at 2994. That could be broken in the next couple of weeks as the earnings season is upon us.

Volatility at the current time remains very high, and I don't think that situation is going to end anytime soon. We will now have to wait and see what the statistics are about individuals spending money at retail stores and restaurants.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Mexican Peso Futures

The Mexican Peso settled last week at 4023 while currently trading 4190 up over 150 points for the trading week looking to break out of its tight 7-week consolidation. If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I am looking at a possible bullish position to the upside.

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 4254 as the risk/reward is in your favor due to the low volatility as prices are now trading above their 20-day, but still below their 100-day moving average as prices are still down 20% from the February high.

The Peso follows the crude oil market closely as Mexico is one of the largest producers of oil in the world. When oil prices go higher, the Peso moves higher and vice versa as we've seen an absolute collapse in prices over the last couple of months, and that's why you have seen lower prices. However, we are now trading above their 20-day moving average, but still far below their 100-day moving average as the risk-reward is in your favor to take a bullish position if prices breakout.

Volatility at the current time is starting to increase even at these depressed levels. I think the spike bottom, which was created on April 6th at 3835, will hold as the downside is minimal, in my opinion, so be patient and keep a close eye on this market to the upside.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the June contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session as prices have now hit a 7-week high after settling last Friday in Chicago 87.25 while currently trading at 98.05. We've experienced multiple limit up days as the processing plants have been forced to close as that certainly is a fundamental bullish factor.

I was looking at a bullish position around the 89 level as this trade has just exploded to the upside. I'm not involved, but if you are long a futures contract continue to stay long as I think there's a real problem at this time because I believe we could hit the 110 level in the coming days ahead.

Cattle prices are trading above their 20-day but now just slightly below their 100-day moving average, which stands around the 102 level. I think it could be touched in the next week's trade as prices still look cheap. This is a very unusual situation due to the Coronavirus, and I'm advising cattle farmers to be patient as higher prices are ahead.

Volatility is extremely high, and that situation is not going to change anytime soon. Still, as I have talked about in many previous blogs, I thought the 76.60 level, which was created on April 6th, would hold. I don't think you'll ever see that price again.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

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Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2402 while currently trading at 2400 unchanged for the week still hovering at a 7-week high. Many commodity sectors are higher across the board today. It is great to see optimism about the U.S economy.

I think the demand for the commodity markets will start to surge in the months ahead, especially at these ridiculously depressed prices. We are trading above the 20-day, but still below their 100-day moving average. However, it certainly looks to me that prices have bottomed out. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 2410 level, and I will continue to place the stop loss under the contract low at 2200. However, if that is too much risk for your account, I would put the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 2323 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time.

The risk/reward is in your favor to the upside as the downside is minimal, in my opinion. I think the bottom in many different commodities has finally occurred, so continue to play this to the upside as the chart structure has improved tremendously in next week's trade, therefore lowering monetary risk.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 55.84 while currently trading at 56.91 up about 100 points for the week as China has come back into the U.S market therefor increasing demand pushing prices higher.

Cotton prices have now traded higher for the 3rd consecutive session as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 55.50 level, and if you took that trade, the stop-loss now stands at 53.20 as the chart structure is outstanding. However, the stop loss will not be moved for another 8 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time.

Many commodities continue to climb higher on optimism about the U.S economy starting to open up as the stock market is higher once again today as this is a terrific thing to see, so continue to play this to the upside. We could hit the 60 level in the coming weeks ahead, especially if weather conditions in the southern part of the United States starts to turn negative towards crop development.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVED
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.