U.S. Petroleum Inventory Rise 4.8 Million Barrels

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) rose by 4.8 million barrels last week to 1.292 billion, and SPR stocks were unchanged. Total stocks stand 2 mmb below the rising, rolling 5-year average and 31.4 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 233 mmb above that average.

Total US Petroleum Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd last week, up 100,000 b/d from the prior week. It averaged 10.700 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 18.0 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 10.736 mmbd, off 17.5 % v. last year, about 2.3 mmb/d lower

US Crude Production

Other Supply

I have previously noted in an article how the “Other Supply,” primarily natural gas liquids and renewables, are integral to petroleum supply. The EIA reported that it rose by 13,000 b/d v. last week to 6.914 mmbd. The 4-week trend in “Other Supply” averaged 6.856 mmbd, off 3.4 % from the same weeks last year. In YTD, they are off 1.5 % from 2020.

Other US Petroleum Supply

Crude production plus other supplies averaged 17.196 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, far below the all-time-high record of 20.213 mmbd.

Crude Imports

Total crude imports rose by 299,000 b/d last week to average 5.622 mmbd last week. This figure was below the 4-week trend of 5.723 mmbd, which in turn was off 9.5 % from a year ago.

US Net Crude Imports

Net crude imports rose by 338,000 b/d because exports fell by 39,000 b/d to average 2.481 mmbd. Over the past 4 weeks, crude exports averaged 2.496 mmbd, 6.8 % lower than a year ago.

US Crude Oil Exports

U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 28,000 b/d last week to average 280,000 b/d. Over the past 4 weeks, Saudi imports have averaged 302,000 b/d, down 34.8 % from a year ago.

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Crude imports from Canada fell by 30,000 b/d last week, averaging 3.418 mmbd. Imports over the past 4 weeks averaged 3.537 mmbd, off 1.9 % v. a year ago.

US Net Oil- Petroleum Imports

Net oil imports averaged 1.253 mmb/d over the past 4 weeks. That compares to net oil exports of 1.022 mmb/d over the same weeks last year.

Crude Inputs to Refineries

Inputs rose 957,000 b/d last week last week averaging 14.389 mmbd. Over the past 4 weeks, crude inputs averaged 12.509 mmbd, off 20.6 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, inputs averaged 13.695 mmbd, off 15.0 % v. a year ago.

US Crude Input To Petroleum Refineries

Crude Stocks

Over the past 4 weeks, crude oil supply exceeded demand by 1.394 mmb/d.

Crude Stock Change

Commercial crude stocks 502.7 mmb are now 47.4 million barrels higher than a year ago.

US Crude Stocks

Petroleum Products

Given the recent net product stock draws, product demand has exceeded supply by 1.812 mmb/d.

Petroleum Product Stock Change

Total U.S. petroleum product stocks at 789 mmb are 21 million barrels lower than a year ago.

US Petroleum Product Stocks

Product exports rose by 895,000 mmb/d last week, averaging 5.222 mmbd. The 4-week trend of 4.445 mmbd is off 20.3 % from a year ago. In the year-to-date, exports averaged 4.780 mmbd, off 13.3 % from a year ago.

Demand

Total petroleum demand averaged 18.766 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 10.7 % v last year. In the YTD, product demand averaged 19.278 mmbd, off 5.8 % v. the same period in 2020.

US Petroleum Product Demand

Gasoline demand at the primary stock level rose by 231,000 b/d last week and averaged 8.483 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 8.7 % v. the same weeks last year. In the YTD, it reported that gas demand is off 10.1 % v. a year ago.

US gasoline Demand

Distillate fuel demand, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 436,000 b/d last week, and averaged 3.974 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 1.4 % the same weeks last year. In the YTD, demand is up by 2.8 % v. a year ago.

US Distillate Demand

Jet fuel demand is off 35.4 % over the past 4 weeks v. last year. In the year-to-date, demand was off 30.9 % v. 2019.

US Jet Fuel Demand

Product Stocks

Gasoline stocks are now 7.0 mmb lower than a year ago, ending at 232.3 mmb.

US gasoline Stocks

Distillate stocks are 17.1 mmb higher than a year ago, ending at 141.6 mmb.

US Distillate Stocks

Conclusions

The correction in crude v. petroleum product supplies continued. Crude stocks have a sizable surplus v. last year, whereas products have a deficit.

Product demand has not responded much to changes in pandemic conditions, in which retail businesses can operate more fully. There are no indications that demand will return to pre-pandemic levels in the foreseeable future.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies

Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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