Is The Fed Done Tightening After December?

It’s beginning to look a lot like the Federal Reserve is done tightening, at least after next week’s monetary policy meeting, when it’s expected to raise interest rates another 25 basis points, to 2.5%, its fourth rate hike this year. After that, however, it’s looking less and less likely that it will raise rates at all next year, certainly not four times, which seemed to be the market consensus not all that long ago.

As we know well, Fed chair Jerome Powell told the Economic Club of New York late last month that interest rates are “just below” the so-called neutral rate, a retreat from his comments less than two months earlier that the fed funds rate was a “long way” from neutral. That sparked a big, but short-lived, rally in both bonds and stocks, as it left investors with the idea that Powell and the Fed are going to be a lot less hawkish moving forward in light of still somnolent inflation and now signs of a weakening economy, exacerbated by the recent inversion of some Treasury bond yield curves, which traditionally have been a sign of impending recession.

As CNBC’s Jim “Mad Money” Cramer noted on Monday, the Fed "risks its credibility" if it doesn’t raise rates next week, a move it has been telegraphing for several months. Failure to do so risks setting off a market panic because, as Cramer said, the Fed could create the impression that “there's something really wrong that we don't know about.” So the Fed has largely backed itself into a corner and must go through with it, whether it wants to now or not.

But what about next year? Continue reading "Is The Fed Done Tightening After December?"

Stocks Jumped On China Trade Talks

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks jumped higher at the open of trading after news broke that the U.S. and China started the latest round of trade talks with a phone call involving Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. It's been reported by people familiar with the call that they discussed Chinese purchases of agricultural products and changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.

But the markets soon fell from those highs and have settled in what I would call muted trading today, which is a far cry from the recent volatility.

Stocks jumped

The DOW finally joined the red monthly Trade Triangle club issuing a new one at 24,122.23 on Monday when it traded below 24,000 for the first time since June 28th of this year. Not to be outdone the S&P 500 issued a new red weekly Trade Triangle at 2,621.53 pushing the Chart Analysis Score to -100 once again. The NASDAQ remains in a sidelines position with a red monthly Trade Triangle and green weekly Trade Triangle. A move below 6,830.76 will trigger a red weekly Trade Triangle indicating that a move lower could be ahead. Continue reading "Stocks Jumped On China Trade Talks"

Gold & Silver: US Dollar Could Spoil Santa Claus Rally

Here we are on the final track of the year, and investors hope for the traditional Santa Claus rally in the precious metals sector. This euphoria of the anticipated strength based on the current move up could be spoiled if this pattern would emerge in the US dollar index (DXY).

Chart 1. US Dollar Index Daily: Triangle

US Dollar
Chart courtesy of

The disappointing data of US non-farm payrolls released last Friday couldn’t damage the US dollar as it kept above the former trough established on the 4th of December at 96.30. The first reaction in the market was a USD sell-off against all major currencies, but it was short-lived, and none of the former extremes were breached. This made me focus on the Dollar Index chart to see if there is some pattern or trading setup has been shaping amid this unusual market behavior. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: US Dollar Could Spoil Santa Claus Rally"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading at 1,252 after settling last Friday in New York at 1,226 up about $26 for the trading week breaking out to a five-month high. Money flows are coming out of the U.S equity market which is sharply lower once again today while now entering the precious metals across the board as I am looking closely at a bullish position in silver as well as it seems to me that the precious metals are going higher. I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you're going to take this trade place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 1,216 as the risk is around $3,600 per large contract plus slippage and commission or about $800 per mini contract. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is clearly to the upside as this commodity is used as a flight to safety as investors are getting spooked by the volatility in the S&P 500 while taking money out of that sector and heading into gold. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as the monetary risk will also be lowered as the volatility remains relatively low with the next major level of resistance all the way up around the 1,275 level as I think there is room to run as I have not recommended a gold position for quite some time

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Gold Stocks Acting As They Should

The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.

As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.


gold stock sector

In short, the improving sector and macro fundamentals I’ve been writing about for a few months now continue to slam home as the cyclical world pivots counter-cyclical. And what do you know? Gold stocks are reacting as they should. Well, it’s about time, guys!

The technicals had already made some constructive moves as noted in an NFTRH subscriber update on December 4th. The update concluded as follows… Continue reading "Gold Stocks Acting As They Should"