Hello traders everywhere. Stocks jumped higher at the open of trading after news broke that the U.S. and China started the latest round of trade talks with a phone call involving Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. It's been reported by people familiar with the call that they discussed Chinese purchases of agricultural products and changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.
But the markets soon fell from those highs and have settled in what I would call muted trading today, which is a far cry from the recent volatility.
The DOW finally joined the red monthly Trade Triangle club issuing a new one at 24,122.23 on Monday when it traded below 24,000 for the first time since June 28th of this year. Not to be outdone the S&P 500 issued a new red weekly Trade Triangle at 2,621.53 pushing the Chart Analysis Score to -100 once again. The NASDAQ remains in a sidelines position with a red monthly Trade Triangle and green weekly Trade Triangle. A move below 6,830.76 will trigger a red weekly Trade Triangle indicating that a move lower could be ahead. Continue reading "Stocks Jumped On China Trade Talks"
Here we are on the final track of the year, and investors hope for the traditional Santa Claus rally in the precious metals sector. This euphoria of the anticipated strength based on the current move up could be spoiled if this pattern would emerge in the US dollar index (DXY).
Chart 1. US Dollar Index Daily: Triangle
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
The disappointing data of US non-farm payrolls released last Friday couldn’t damage the US dollar as it kept above the former trough established on the 4th of December at 96.30. The first reaction in the market was a USD sell-off against all major currencies, but it was short-lived, and none of the former extremes were breached. This made me focus on the Dollar Index chart to see if there is some pattern or trading setup has been shaping amid this unusual market behavior. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: US Dollar Could Spoil Santa Claus Rally"
We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading at 1,252 after settling last Friday in New York at 1,226 up about $26 for the trading week breaking out to a five-month high. Money flows are coming out of the U.S equity market which is sharply lower once again today while now entering the precious metals across the board as I am looking closely at a bullish position in silver as well as it seems to me that the precious metals are going higher. I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you're going to take this trade place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 1,216 as the risk is around $3,600 per large contract plus slippage and commission or about $800 per mini contract. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is clearly to the upside as this commodity is used as a flight to safety as investors are getting spooked by the volatility in the S&P 500 while taking money out of that sector and heading into gold. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as the monetary risk will also be lowered as the volatility remains relatively low with the next major level of resistance all the way up around the 1,275 level as I think there is room to run as I have not recommended a gold position for quite some time
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.
As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.
In short, the improving sector and macro fundamentals I’ve been writing about for a few months now continue to slam home as the cyclical world pivots counter-cyclical. And what do you know? Gold stocks are reacting as they should. Well, it’s about time, guys!
The technicals had already made some constructive moves as noted in an NFTRH subscriber update on December 4th. The update concluded as follows… Continue reading "Gold Stocks Acting As They Should"
The market-wide sell-off in equities during the fourth quarter has disproportionally impacted growth stocks that possess high price-to-earnings multiples translating into rich valuations. The market appears to have lost its appetite for the high growth and steep valuation equities that had huge upward moves throughout this record-setting bull market. HealthEquity Inc. (HQY) continues to post quarter after double-digit quarter growth in revenue and EPS and has been rewarded with a rich valuation as a function of its impressive growth. This high price-to-earnings multiple may be in jeopardy as the market moves into a risk-averse environment. As high-flying equities come down in the broader market sell-off, Health Equity may come down as a result and erase some of its monster gains that were witnessed in 2018. To be clear, Health Equity is an intermediary servicing the secular growth Health Savings Account (HSA) space that’s largely independent of legislative actions, drug pricing, rising insurance costs and not playing any role in the pharmaceutical supply chain. HealthEquity manages funds allocated for medical, dental and vision expenses that are deducted on a pre-tax basis and deposited into a dedicated HSA account. The company blew out the numbers when it reported its Q3 FY19 results and beat on both the top and bottom line.
HealthEquity manages $7.1 billion in assets across 3.7 million accounts against a potential market maturity of $1 trillion in assets across 50-60 million accounts. The durability of this growth has a long runway due to the secular growth in the HSA market. The company is sitting on largely untapped revenue sources where the vast majority of account holders have yet to invest any HSA money in investment offerings. Expanding margins for greater profitability is also unfolding as the older the account, the greater the gross margins. HealthEquity is currently sitting on a healthy balance sheet with $330 million in cash and cash equivalents with no debt. The company is posting accelerating revenue, cash flow, margin expansion and income growth with a strong balance sheet. I feel that HealthEquity will continue to post strong growth as it services the double-digit HSA growth market and manages more assets, accounts, and investments within these accounts. HealthEquity may be a great long-term investment in the healthcare space that’s independent of the health insurances, pharmaceutical supply chain companies, drug makers or pharmacies. Previously, I warned that the “current valuation is rich in an already frothy market thus caution at these levels is wise” and now it appears this heeding was responsible as the stock has sold off from $101 to $74 shedding 26% of its market value during the fourth quarter. Health Equity looks compelling after this healthy correction as the long-term narrative remains intact. Continue reading "HealthEquity Inc. - Rich Valuation Concerns?"