January Market Rebound Provides 100% Options Win Rate

Previously, I authored a piece covering options trading and the mechanics behind long-term successful options trading to generate high probability win rates for consistent premium income. I provided empirical data via 100 options trades during the market wide sell-off in Q4 of 2018 where the Dow and S&P 500 erased all of its gains while turning negative for the year and posting their worse December since the Great Depression in 1931. Despite this negative backdrop, I was able to successfully close 80% of my trades at a profit, demonstrating the resiliency of high probability options trading regardless of market condition. These trading mechanics resulted in a total portfolio return of -5.9% against the S&P 500 return of -14.0% in Q4 of 2018, outperforming the broader index by a wide margin.

Since then, the month of January presented the polar opposite market scenario with the S&P closing out the best January in over 30 years. Maintaining the same trading mechanics deployed in Q4 of 2018 into January produced a portfolio return of 9.26% against the S&P 500 return of 7.87%, outperforming the index by a healthy margin. This seesaw from a negative to a positive market backdrop provided unique opportunities to capitalize on option trading via capturing a higher percentage of premium income, closing contracts early in the option lifecycle and relinquishing previously assigned contracts, which allowed the repurposing of capital for further options trading. In January, I was able to achieve a 100% options win rate by closing 30 out of 30 option contracts while maintaining capital liquidity.

Terse Overview

Options trading can be a fantastic avenue to mitigate risk; provide consistent income, lower cost basis of underlying stock positions and hedge against market movements while maintaining liquidity. Risk mitigation is particularly important given the market wide melt-down during Q4 of 2018. Maintaining liquidity via maintaining cash on hand to engage in covered put option selling is a great way to collect monthly income via premium selling. Heeding critical variables such as implied volatility, implied volatility percentile and probability, one can optimize option selling to yield a high probability win rate over the long term given enough trade occurrences. Continue reading "January Market Rebound Provides 100% Options Win Rate"

Stocks Surged Higher To End The Week

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks surged higher Friday on increasing hopes for a U.S.- China trade deal. The Dow and Nasdaq are both on pace to post their eighth consecutive weekly gain. The S&P 500, meanwhile, was on track for its seventh weekly gain in eight. The indexes are all up more than 2% entering Friday's afternoon trading session. They check in with gains of +2.5%, +2.1%, and 2% respectively.

Stocks Surged Higher

Chinese President Xi Jinping said trade talks between the U.S. and China will continue next week in Washington. This comes after a U.S. trade delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was in Beijing this week.

China and the U.S. are trying to strike a trade deal before an early March deadline. If a deal is not reached by then, additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could take effect. President Donald Trump, however, is considering pushing back the deadline by 60 days to give negotiators more time to come up with a deal.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Stocks Surged Higher To End The Week"

Blowin' In The Wind

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week held sacred the Fed’s “precious” independence, but he apparently forgot how quickly and easily it’s been bullied into altering its monetary policy by both politicians and influential financial markets people.

Until just a couple of months ago, the Fed was determined to “normalize” interest rates and its enormous balance sheet. But after a relative – emphasis on that word – weak patch for the economy and howls of pain from investors during last year’s correction, the Powell Fed was lighting quick to reverse course and put a halt to more rate hikes and portfolio runoff until further notice.

Not surprisingly, the financial press hasn’t given President Trump any credit for this (if credit is the right word in this instance), even though he was clearly the first and loudest basher of tightening Fed policy. Wall Street then jumped on the bandwagon, and voila, we have a new “patient” Fed and an easier monetary policy – and the best January for stocks since the 1980s.
Powell and other members of the Fed have tried to justify their abrupt about-face by noting recent weak – again, relatively speaking – economic data. But January’s robust nonfarm payrolls report – nearly double the consensus forecast – calls that into serious question. Continue reading "Blowin' In The Wind"

Our May Stock Market Prediction - Part 1

As we enter the final stage of our stock market prediction from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data. We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally? The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.

As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future? Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months. Here we go.

At this point, we are going to highlight our earlier predictions (all of 2018 and into Q1/Q2 of 2019) and show you what the market has done since these calls were made back in September 2018. Pay attention to this Weekly ES (S&P 500 chart) and pay attention to the YELLOW ARROWS on this chart. We have highlighted key predictive price modeling points with these yellow arrows on the chart to show you what our ADL predictive modeling system suggested would happen back in December 2017. Continue reading "Our May Stock Market Prediction - Part 1"

Israel Legalizes Medical Cannabis Exports

Israel just took a major step toward becoming a global leader in the high-growth medical cannabis market.

Israel just became the fifth country in the world to legalize medical cannabis exports after its cabinet voted to approve a sweeping new cannabis law.

Here are some more details from Reuters.

The bill, backed last month by parliament, allows companies approved by the health regulator and police to export medical cannabis to countries that permit its use. Israeli media said exports could start in as little as nine months.

“I am glad this is finally happening. It opens a very big market in Israel. The technology is here in Israel and until now we simply had to give the technology to other countries. Therefore, I am glad we can reap the profits here in Israel,” said Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked.

Some lawmakers had tried to block the legislation, fearing more cultivation could push more drugs onto the streets at home.

Israeli companies – benefiting from a favorable climate and expertise in medical and agricultural technologies – are among the world’s biggest producers of medical cannabis.

Israeli Cabinet Approves Law To Allow Medical Cannabis Exports

This legislative move places Israel into a very small group of countries in the world, and the export news comes at the perfect time. The global cannabis market is expected to explode in the next few years. Continue reading "Israel Legalizes Medical Cannabis Exports"