As Expected The Fed Cuts Rates

Hello traders everywhere. As expected the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75 - 2.00%. This cut is the second cut that Fed has implemented in 10 years, the first rate cut came back in July when the Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.0% - 2.25%.

The market was clearly disappointed by the 25 point cut as it was expecting or hoping for a 50 point cut. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ have all headed lower on the day with the NASDAQ leading the way losing -1.0%.

Though the U.S. economy continues growing at a "moderate" rate and the labor market "remains strong," the Fed said in its policy statement that it was cutting rates "in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures."

With continued growth and strong hiring "the most likely outcomes," the Fed nevertheless cited "uncertainties" about the outlook and pledged to "act as appropriate" to sustain the expansion.

New projections showed policymakers at the median expected rates to stay within the new range through 2020. However, in a sign of ongoing divisions within the Fed, seven of 17 policymakers projected one more quarter-point rate cut in 2019. Continue reading "As Expected The Fed Cuts Rates"

It's Time To Go long

While President Trump’s tweet calling the members of the Federal Reserve “boneheads” for failing to cut interest rates as low as Trump wants them grabbed the financial headlines, his suggestion that the government “refinance” its enormous $22.5 trillion debt got less attention. At the most, it was dismissed as undoable.

It’s hard to believe that the smartest people on Wall Street and at the U.S. Treasury can’t come up with some kind of scheme that would take advantage of today’s – and probably tomorrow’s – historically low bond yields and save taxpayers some money. This job would fall to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin – himself a former Goldman Sachs investment banker – and not the Fed.

On Thursday, Mnuchin told CNBC that Treasury is “very seriously considering” issuing a 50-year bond next year. “We think there is some demand for it. There are some technology issues we need to make sure we have in place; there are market issues. But we would do this in a way that if there is demand, it’s something that we would meet.”

If Walt Disney and several European countries can sell 100-year bonds, certainly the United States of America can.

The initial reaction to Trump’s suggestion about refinancing Treasury debt was met with derision and skepticism. Continue reading "It's Time To Go long"

Gold Update: Is A Bear Face Showing Up?

Gold has missed our main target by $20 as it topped at the $1557 on the 4th of September. The gold optimists still benefited nicely as this peak was $67 above the first target of $1490, that we hit more than one month ago. So, it was definitely worth it to keep bullish for one more month.

Let’s see below if there were a lot of gold optimists a month ago.

Gold Poll

Indeed, the majority with a large margin preferred the continuation of the gold’s rally. It means you could book more than $60 for every ounce staying bullish. Thank you for support as I also believed in that outcome.

In the meantime, we should bear in mind that this was just a considerable correction, which had started in December of 2015. It has been retracing the other drop between 2011 and 2015. So, it is evident that the considerable drop and the correction are almost equal in time it took to emerge – 4 years both. Shall we book the recent rally as “done”? Continue reading "Gold Update: Is A Bear Face Showing Up?"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract ended the week on a sour note down $0.42 at 17.75 after settling last Friday at 18.11 an ounce as prices are near a 3 week low. I have been recommending a bullish position over the last several months from the 14.93 level originally in the September contract as it is time to exit and move on as prices are right near a 3 week low as the trend in the short-term has changed.

Silver futures are trading below their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average as all the interest has come back into the U.S stock market which is right near another all-time high as money flows are entering equities and out of the metals.

If you are a longer-term investor, I would still hold on to silver as I still believe prices are cheap historically speaking as this is just the pullback as I will not take a short position as I think the downside is minimal.

I do not have any recommendations in the precious metal as I think this is a pause as we will probably witness a consolidation over the next couple of weeks, but I still believe prices will head into the $20 range come year-end, but it is time to move on and exit.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Market Management 101: Balance

I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time. The truth is that 2019’s learning is much different than 2018’s learning was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008/2009 and other pivotal market phases. So I’d say that the biggest lesson to learn has been the concept of marrying adaptability with discipline.

Cookie-cutter advisors and brokers have it easier. They’re the majority of market professionals and they’ve learned and set in stone the way of allocating into markets; 60/40 stocks to bonds or some such variant. But for something more effective than ‘cookie-cutter’, you need to keep learning, adapting and holding discipline as long as your signals remain valid.

As for the current situation and speaking personally, it usually does not work out like this, especially when anticipating a corrective phase in the precious metals. The way it usually works is that I underestimate the intensity of a correction that I am pretty sure is coming and either I don’t sell quite enough, don’t hedge correctly (timing-wise) or don’t balance the portfolios optimally, even if the balancing seemed logical at the time it was undertaken. Often that is because the last market situation is not going to be like the next one. Automatic, cookie-cutter thinking need not apply. Adaptability.

Well somehow today, with gold and silver stocks way off their highs (and GDX & GDXJ painting bogus looking engulfing candles) I am right at my personal portfolio’s value highs for the year despite 2019’s best trade having topped out a couple weeks ago. That is due to some combination of… Continue reading "Market Management 101: Balance"