Copper Futures Continue Bullish Momentum

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.8135 a pound while currently trading at 2.8455 up over 300 points for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum. The housing market is on fire at the current time following the U.S. economy, which continues to accelerate to the upside.

I am keeping a close eye on a bullish position as I'm currently not involved. Still, I'm certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter-trend trading, which is very dangerous over time. However, if you are long a futures contract, I would continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 2.76 as an exit strategy.

If you have been following any of my previous blogs, you understand that I'm very bullish the U.S. economy, as that will be a bullish factor for copper prices ahead. I will take advantage of any price to buy in next week's trade, therefore, taking advantage of lower prices while also lowering the monetary risk, so keep a close eye on this market. I think prices could crack the 3.00 level in the coming weeks ahead as the risk/reward would be in your favor if that situation occurred.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Platinum Futures

Another wild trading session in platinum as prices are up another $23 an ounce at 1,024 after settling last Friday in New York at 986 up about $38 for the trading week as prices are right at a two year high. The precious metal sector is higher across the board once again, continuing its bullish momentum. Continue reading "Copper Futures Continue Bullish Momentum"

2020 Market Outlook - Margin Of Safety Required

Euphoric 2019 and Bleak 2020 Forecast

All three major indices ended 2019 in rarified territory as the Santa Claus rally capped off a euphoric market. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones ended 2019 at all-time highs. The S&P 500 posted its best return in nearly 20 years, coming in at a 28.9% return.

2019 was a unique year on multiple fronts where the markets roared higher despite impeachment proceedings, U.S.-China trade war, Federal Reserve actions, inverted yield curve, and slowing economies abroad. Furthermore, for the first time in history, the U.S. economy has started and ended a decade without a recession, with the economy expanding for a record 126 consecutive months (Figure 1).

2020
Figure 1 – All three major indices reached all-time highs at the end of 2019

Currently, the markets are faced with stretched valuations absent of any significant volatility over the past few months. 2020 predictions are shaping up to widely variable from the collective grouping of investment firms (Figure 2). The average forecast is looking bleak after a banner 2019. I feel these bleak forecasts are rooted in political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, slowing company buybacks, stretched valuations, and inevitable market volatility. As 2020 unfolds, a margin of safety via raising cash as a core position may be wise. Continue reading "2020 Market Outlook - Margin Of Safety Required"

Strong Economic Data And Housing Boost Market

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks traded at record intra-day highs Friday morning as strong global economic data, strong housing data, and a solid start to the earnings season led to another week of gains. This week's move for the S&P 500 and DOW are close to posting the best weekly gain in 5 months.

All three of the major indexes hit intraday highs in Friday morning trading with the S&P 500 hitting 3,326.44 up +1.7% for the week. The DOW continues to trade above 29,000, hitting a high of 29,373.62, posting a +1.7% gain. The NASDAQ will post a weekly gain of +1.9% and hit a record high of 9,393.48.

Chinese industrial data for December came in better than expected, with production rising +6.9% on a year-over-year basis. The overall Chinese economy grew by +6.1% in 2019, matching expectations. To be sure, that is also the slowest growth rate for the Chinese economy since 1990. Continue reading "Strong Economic Data And Housing Boost Market"

My Big Trend Analysis For Silver Investors - Part 2

This, the second part of our Silver research article suggesting Silver may be forming a massive price base in preparation for an explosive upside move, will continue from Part I of this research series.

Our research team believes Silver is setting up in a price pattern that may already be “ripe” for an explosive upside move. Our researchers have poured over the data and believe the disparity between Gold and Silver is already at excessive levels.

Historically, anytime the disparity between Gold prices and Silver prices (rationalized into comparative Gold price levels) breaches 30% to 60% and Gold begins an upside price advance, Silver typically begins to move higher with 4 to 8+ months. This setup pushes the Gold to Silver ratio back below 50 or 60 as Silver rallies substantially higher, and faster than the price of Gold.

Comparatively, Silver continues to trade within a sideways price range after basing in early 2016. This price range has been fairly consistent between $14.50 and $21.0. With Gold recently starting to move higher because of the US/Iran military conflict, this raises an early warning flag for our research team because Silver has continued to trade below $18 – and well below recent highs near $20.

The price disparity between Gold and Silver is currently greater than 200% based on our proprietary modeling system. Remember, anytime this disparity level is greater than 30% to 60% and Gold breaks out in a rally, Silver will break to the upside within just a few months.

Silver Gold

The second stage rally in Silver, the real money-maker, will come when investors pile into Silver and Silver Miners as the breakout in Silver becomes explosive. The time to get into this trade is/was now or 4 months ago. Still, there is plenty of opportunity for skilled traders right now because the breakout move in Silver and Silver Miners has not really begun yet. Continue reading "My Big Trend Analysis For Silver Investors - Part 2"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, January 2020

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for January, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.800 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dipped 1 million barrels in December at 2.914 billion, 54 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For 2020, OECD inventories are projected to build by 47 million barrels to 2.962 billion. This is EIA’s first projection for 2021, and it forecasts that stocks will draw by 17 million barrels to end the year at 2.945 billion.

Oil

The EIA estimated that OPEC production dipped by 250,000 b/d in December to 29.24 million. For 2020, it estimates that OPEC production will average about 29.19 million, about 600,000 b/d lower than in 2019. For 2021, it estimates OPEC production will remain about the same. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, January 2020"