Indexes Trigger Monthly Trade Triangles

The DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin all triggered new green monthly Trade Triangles signaling a move to a long-term uptrend. The move higher was on the back of a historic and surprising gain in U.S. jobs that raised hopes that the economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. employers added a shocking 2.5 million jobs last month, the largest gain on record, while the unemployment rate slid to 13.3%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a drop of more than 8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to nearly reach 20%, which would have been the highest since the 1930s. Continue reading "Indexes Trigger Monthly Trade Triangles"

BNY Mellon With Truly Fee-Free ETF

BNY Mellon has been a player in the ETF industry for years, however until just recently, it was always a 'behind the scenes' player. In early April, the Bank of New York Mellon changed that in a big way by not only introducing three brand new ETFs but offering one of them to clients for free.

Yes, you read that correctly, the BNY Mellon US Large Cap Core Equity ETF (BKLC) has an expense ratio of zero. The fund doesn't charge you anything to own it. Furthermore, the Bank's two other ETFs come with extremely low fees, 0.04% for each of them.

The BNY Mellon US Mid Cap Core Equity ETF (BKMC) and the BNY Mellon US Small Cap Core Equity ETF (BKSE). Both fall in the top 1% of lowest funds when based on expense ratio, and that's while the BNY Mellon US Large Cap Core Equity ETF was technically the first ETF to offer a zero-expense ratio. Since the launch of these three funds on April 9th, BNY Mello has also launched a few other ETFs, all of which have low fees but one other that doesn't have any, the BNY Mello Core Bond ETF (BKAG).

You may be wondering about another ETF that has been touted as a zero-fee ETF or the first free ETF, it's the SoFi Select 500 ETF (SFY) and the SoFi Next 500 ETF (SFYX) however while they don't currently have an expense ratio, they could in the future. The reason for that is because the SoFi products have a fee reducing waiver, which would need to be renewed for the fund to maintain its zero-fee long term. Continue reading "BNY Mellon With Truly Fee-Free ETF"

U.S. Crude Oil Production Peaked In November

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production averaged 12.716 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 28,000 b/d from February. Reductions occurred in the Gulf of Mexico (41,000 b/d) North Dakota (19,000 b/d), and Colorado (13,000 b/d). Because of the oil price war and demand destruction, the collapse in oil prices likely undercut output in March, but the substantial drop in production started in April.

Texas production rose by 67,000 b/d to an all-time high of 5.422 mmbd.

Crude Oil

The gains from last April were still 824,000 b/d. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply fell 490,000 b/d from a year ago. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Peaked In November"

Election Year Cycles - What To Expect

Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events. Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric. The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar, yet still important for our researchers.

The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets. Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.

We’ve published research articles about this technical setup/pattern that occurs in the markets nearly 8 to 15+ months before the US Presidential election cycle before. The basic theory of the setup/pattern is as follows…

  • 12+ months prior to the election date, the parties consolidate around specific candidates where the first battles of the US presidential election cycle conclude.
  • Over the next 12 months, the battle between the selected candidates becomes more heated and aggressive as voters are pushed information and disinformation related to their decisions.
  • The process of the election and the decision-making process for consumers/voters is very stressful and distracts from the normal economic activity for many. This distraction translates into an indecisive market where future expectations (optimism and pessimism) greatly depend on the outcome of the election. Thus, the markets are stuck in a “no man’s land” type of “stasis” waiting for the election event to conclude.

Depending on the events that lead up to the election date, the stock market could be biased towards a bullish trend or a bearish trend which can have a big impact on the pre and post-election outcomes.

S&P 500 Index 2006-09 US Presidential Election Cycle

Let's start by taking a look at the 2006-09 (2008 US election cycle) data/chart. Continue reading "Election Year Cycles - What To Expect"

Are Palladium, Gold And Silver Set To Takeoff?

In this post, I'll go over the charts for palladium, gold and silver, but first I would like to start with palladium futures as it has the most potential gain to reach this round. At the start of May, I shared with you the map with equal opportunities for this champion metal to either break up or down. Here is how you saw the future for palladium in the graph below.

Palladium Poll

The majority chose the “break down” option, although with a minor advantage, but this bet played out as the metal’s price dipped one more time in the third leg down of a large correction. You were right again!

Now, let’s get down to the hot opportunity that I spotted for you on the palladium futures daily chart as it’s worth watching on the Gold & Silver Primetime.

Palladium Gold Silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The chart structure of palladium futures on the daily time frame could indeed be posted in the trading textbook as it is neat and smooth. I put detailed explanations here and on the chart as this metal gives such an excellent opportunity for education. Continue reading "Are Palladium, Gold And Silver Set To Takeoff?"