How Low Could The S&P 500 Go?

Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…

I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200 for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?

Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop policy style.

So, for now, I see no reason to make dire proclamations beyond that key support level, as so much will depend on incoming information in 2019. At this point, even 2100-2200 is not technically in the bag because the US stock market clung to last-ditch daily chart support, as per the marginally favored short-term NFTRH view. So all of we bear callers need to remember that as ugly as the charts are, support is not broken until it is… broken.

I was going to cover this in NFTRH 530‘s Opening Notes segment, but why not make it a public post and save NFTRH’s virtual ink for more immediate issues going on with the markets? Before we dial out to a couple of simple SPX charts showing the prospective downside targets, let's review the situation with a less than simple chart. Continue reading "How Low Could The S&P 500 Go?"

U.S. Indexes Erase Weekly Gains

Hello traders everywhere. Mid-week things were looking positive for the stock market overall as fears of a long-term trade war with China lessened on news that the U.S. and China began to talk about settling the disagreement. However, weak economic data from China and Europe rekindled fears of slowing global growth, and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is leading the lower sustaining significant losses after Reuters reported the company knew for decades that asbestos lurked in its Baby Powder.

weekly loss

All three indexes are suffering losses over 1.3% on the day which has effectively erased the weekly gains that all three indexes were looking to post. The DOW will end the week in negative territory losing almost one percent at -.90%. The S&P 500 will post a weekly loss of around -.80%, and NASDAQ is trying to finish the week unchanged floating between and gain and loss for the week. Continue reading "U.S. Indexes Erase Weekly Gains"

Chicago Ready To Legalize Cannabis

Chicago just took a big step toward becoming the cannabis capital of the Midwest. Not only would that be good for the broader US cannabis industry – it would be great news for two young and promising cannabis companies operating a string of cultivation facilities and dispensaries all across Chicago and Illinois.

The catalyst for Chicago’s cannabis potential? Governor-Elect JB Pritzker.

Pritzker is a major advocate of legalization. It was a staple of his campaign and now that he has won Pritzker says his goal is to legalize recreational cannabis as quickly as possible.

According to a recent report from the Chicago Tribune, Illinois legislators are expected to introduce a bill as early as January that could be passed by May.

Sponsors plan to introduce a new legalization bill in January and hope to get it passed before the session ends in May. The proposed measure would allow the commercial sale and regulation of marijuana, similar to alcohol, for adults 21 and over. There would probably be a six-month waiting period for officials to draw up rules before issuing licenses for growing and selling it. Sponsors say existing medical marijuana companies would likely get the first crack at sales.

Illinois already has a booming medical cannabis industry. Continue reading "Chicago Ready To Legalize Cannabis"

Is The Fed Done Tightening After December?

It’s beginning to look a lot like the Federal Reserve is done tightening, at least after next week’s monetary policy meeting, when it’s expected to raise interest rates another 25 basis points, to 2.5%, its fourth rate hike this year. After that, however, it’s looking less and less likely that it will raise rates at all next year, certainly not four times, which seemed to be the market consensus not all that long ago.

As we know well, Fed chair Jerome Powell told the Economic Club of New York late last month that interest rates are “just below” the so-called neutral rate, a retreat from his comments less than two months earlier that the fed funds rate was a “long way” from neutral. That sparked a big, but short-lived, rally in both bonds and stocks, as it left investors with the idea that Powell and the Fed are going to be a lot less hawkish moving forward in light of still somnolent inflation and now signs of a weakening economy, exacerbated by the recent inversion of some Treasury bond yield curves, which traditionally have been a sign of impending recession.

As CNBC’s Jim “Mad Money” Cramer noted on Monday, the Fed "risks its credibility" if it doesn’t raise rates next week, a move it has been telegraphing for several months. Failure to do so risks setting off a market panic because, as Cramer said, the Fed could create the impression that “there's something really wrong that we don't know about.” So the Fed has largely backed itself into a corner and must go through with it, whether it wants to now or not.

But what about next year? Continue reading "Is The Fed Done Tightening After December?"

Stocks Jumped On China Trade Talks

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks jumped higher at the open of trading after news broke that the U.S. and China started the latest round of trade talks with a phone call involving Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. It's been reported by people familiar with the call that they discussed Chinese purchases of agricultural products and changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.

But the markets soon fell from those highs and have settled in what I would call muted trading today, which is a far cry from the recent volatility.

Stocks jumped

The DOW finally joined the red monthly Trade Triangle club issuing a new one at 24,122.23 on Monday when it traded below 24,000 for the first time since June 28th of this year. Not to be outdone the S&P 500 issued a new red weekly Trade Triangle at 2,621.53 pushing the Chart Analysis Score to -100 once again. The NASDAQ remains in a sidelines position with a red monthly Trade Triangle and green weekly Trade Triangle. A move below 6,830.76 will trigger a red weekly Trade Triangle indicating that a move lower could be ahead. Continue reading "Stocks Jumped On China Trade Talks"