We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading at 1,252 after settling last Friday in New York at 1,226 up about $26 for the trading week breaking out to a five-month high. Money flows are coming out of the U.S equity market which is sharply lower once again today while now entering the precious metals across the board as I am looking closely at a bullish position in silver as well as it seems to me that the precious metals are going higher. I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you're going to take this trade place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 1,216 as the risk is around $3,600 per large contract plus slippage and commission or about $800 per mini contract. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is clearly to the upside as this commodity is used as a flight to safety as investors are getting spooked by the volatility in the S&P 500 while taking money out of that sector and heading into gold. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as the monetary risk will also be lowered as the volatility remains relatively low with the next major level of resistance all the way up around the 1,275 level as I think there is room to run as I have not recommended a gold position for quite some time
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.
As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.
In short, the improving sector and macro fundamentals I’ve been writing about for a few months now continue to slam home as the cyclical world pivots counter-cyclical. And what do you know? Gold stocks are reacting as they should. Well, it’s about time, guys!
The technicals had already made some constructive moves as noted in an NFTRH subscriber update on December 4th. The update concluded as follows… Continue reading "Gold Stocks Acting As They Should"
“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course, we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before a situation turns decidedly negative.
Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio
Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield
Amigo 3: Yield Curve
In honor of Amigo 3’s arrival to prime time let’s have a good old fashioned Amigos update (going in reverse order) and see if we can annoy a few more people along the way.
Clicking the headline yields a Bloomberg article all about various yield curves and all the doomed news you can use, including a hyperactive interview with an expert bringing us all up to speed on the situation. Continue reading ""Harbinger Of Doom": Amigo 3 In Play, But Real Doom Awaits"
The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.
Fed Finally Blinks
Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.
This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.
Add in very high profile haranguing by Donald Trump, the above-noted drop in inflation expectations and economic weakening (that began with our Semi sector signals nearly a year ago) and it sure is not surprising that the Fed may take its foot off the break for a while, and possibly a long while.
So what is expected of our two main themes, the cyclical and risk ‘on’ stock market and the counter-cyclical and risk ‘off’ gold and the miners, which leverage gold’s counter-cyclical utility? Let’s check in after this week’s events. Continue reading "A Post-Powell View Of USD, S&P 500 And Gold"
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