Stocks Surged Higher To End The Week

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks surged higher Friday on increasing hopes for a U.S.- China trade deal. The Dow and Nasdaq are both on pace to post their eighth consecutive weekly gain. The S&P 500, meanwhile, was on track for its seventh weekly gain in eight. The indexes are all up more than 2% entering Friday's afternoon trading session. They check in with gains of +2.5%, +2.1%, and 2% respectively.

Stocks Surged Higher

Chinese President Xi Jinping said trade talks between the U.S. and China will continue next week in Washington. This comes after a U.S. trade delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was in Beijing this week.

China and the U.S. are trying to strike a trade deal before an early March deadline. If a deal is not reached by then, additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could take effect. President Donald Trump, however, is considering pushing back the deadline by 60 days to give negotiators more time to come up with a deal.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Optimism Propels Stock Market Higher

Hello traders everywhere. Groundhog day, that's what it feels like right now as traders continue to follow news about the U.S. - China trade talks. On Tuesday President Donald Trump suggested that he might be open to postponing the current deadline of early March so that both sides can reach a deal. Failure to achieve an agreement would spark higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with U.S. delegates on Friday as both sides try to strike a deal, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

The Dow is up about 135 points as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Visa (V) outperformed. The S&P 500 gained 0.45%, led by gains in tech and consumer discretionary. The Nasdaq advanced 0.5% as Amazon (AMZN) shares climbed .50% at the open.

Optimism

The stock market is also getting a boost from news that a tentative deal on a new budget that could prevent another government shutdown which also includes border security funding. President Trump said Tuesday he is not happy with this proposal but added he will be studying its details.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

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A Precious Metals Update

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark, you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

Precious Metals Update

First off, Commitments of Traders data are only available through 12.31.18 as a result of the government shutdown. So we are flying somewhat blind from that perspective. At the end of December, the CoT for gold and silver were well on their way to a bearish alignment. Have they maxed their trends and reversed in the meantime? It is quite possible, especially since the metals have taken pullbacks (within their intermediate uptrends) recently.

We have been following an analog to 2001, which saw SPX break down below its 50 & 200 day moving averages as HUI began its bull market. What’s more, SPX then tested its breakdown in Q1 2001… Continue reading "A Precious Metals Update"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract finished down about $4 for the week at 1,318 an ounce reversing earlier losses finishing strong especially compared to the rest of the commodity sectors. The U.S stock market sold off about 200 points as that supported gold prices as there were concerns earlier in the day about lower inflation estimates in Europe coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar also hit a 2 week high. However, investors came back into the market as a flight to quality. I have been recommending a bullish trade from around the 1,252 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss has now been raised to 1,302 as the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remain strong, but for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the January 31st high of 1,331 in my opinion. Let's see what Monday's trade brings as I think they'll be a lot of volatility because many government reports will finally be released.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

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Weekly Losses In Sight For Stock Market

Hello traders everywhere. The three major indexes are set up to post losses for the third straight day to end the week. In fact, if the trend holds true through the close the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ will all post weekly losses. That would be the first weekly loss in seven weeks for the DOW and NASDAQ and it will be the second time in three weeks that the S&P 500 ended in negative territory.

Recent weakness has been brought about by skepticism over the United States and China reaching a trade deal before a looming deadline which has added to investor's nerves over slowing global growth.

Weekly Losses

The U.S. Dollar is on track for its best week in over six months posting a +1% gain on the week. This will be the biggest weekly increase since a 1.28% jump in the week of Aug. 10, 2018. This spike higher was brought on as investors flocked to the safe haven amid worries about a weakening global economy. Continue reading "Weekly Losses In Sight For Stock Market"