Crude Oil Outperforms Stock Market

Hello traders everywhere. Crude oil outperforms stock market for the week, that's not a statement that you hear very often, but it's true this week as crude is set to have it's biggest weekly gain in over two months posting a +8% gain on the week. The reason, shrinking U.S. stockpiles, supply disruptions from Canada to Libya, tensions between Iran and the U.S. and last week's decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers to relax supply limits.

As for Iran, if the recent re-imposition of U.S. sanctions succeeds in driving the Islamic Republic's oil exports close to zero, crude could surge to $100 a barrel, according to many analysts.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that national crude stockpiles fell by 9.89 million barrels last week, the most significant decline since September 2016. Inventories in the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, also declined, while domestic crude exports surged to a record.

Crude Oil Outperforms Stock Market

The stock market is closing out the week on a high note with the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all higher on the day getting a boost from the big banks and Nike, but it's still headed for weekly losses as traders are still skittish over global trade frictions.

The NASDAQ is leading the way lower with a weekly loss of -1.8% followed by the S&P 500 -.7% and the DOW standing at -.60%. The U.S. Dollar is posting a minimal gain of +.08% rebounding from last weeks loss. Gold continues to be under pressure from the bears and is down -1.23% on the week continuing it's weekly loss streak now standing at three weeks. And last, but not least we have Bitcoin which remains to be caught in the bear trap losing another -4.0% on the week and trading below the $6,000 level as we wrap up the week.

Key Levels To Watch Nest Week:

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A New Entry Into Germany’s Cannabis Industry

Analysis originally distributed on June 21, 2018 By: Michael Vodicka of Cannabis Stock Trades

Germany has quickly emerged as one of the fastest-growing medical cannabis markets in the world.

According to a study on the German health insurance market, 500 German patients requested medical cannabis in January of 2017.

In December of the same year, the number of patients requesting reimbursements for cannabis prescriptions skyrocketed to 13,000.

What was the biggest factor that drove the huge spike?

German insurance companies started covering medical cannabis subscriptions in 2017 – and the number of patients surged.

Looking forward – this bullish trend is expected to accelerate.

Tens of thousands of new patients are expected to enroll in Germany’s medical cannabis program in 2018.

Longer term – I expect the success of Germany’s medical cannabis market to usher in recreational legalization. Continue reading "A New Entry Into Germany’s Cannabis Industry"

The Beat Goes On

Hello traders everywhere. I'm not referring to the hit song "The Beat Goes On" by The Whispers, but the continuing "Trade War" talk that is putting extreme pressure on the stock market. The latest news out Washington D.C. has put the tech sector in the crosshairs, and that can be seen with the S&P 500 shedding -1.7% and NASDAQ -2.6% on the day so far, issuing new red weekly Trade Triangles that I highlighted last week. In fact, the move lower has pushed the DOW down over 400 pts issuing and new red weekly Trade Triangle as well indicating that the downtrend is gaining momentum and strength to the downside.

Beat Goes On

The Wall Street Journal first reported Monday that the President would use the wide-reaching International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to invoke national security concerns to limit the ability of China-owned or China-backed firms to invest in U.S. companies that are linked to "industrially significant" U.S. technology. The reports also said that the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments, as well as the National Security Council, was drafting plans to introduce "enhanced" export controls, that could be unveiled as early as this week, to keep American technology from finding its way to China.

Harley-Davidson is also making news today with shares falling over 4% after the company announced it would shift production of motorcycles headed for Europe to factories outside the U.S. The company sold nearly 40,000 bikes to the European Union, second only to the U.S.

Shares of chipmakers Micron Technology and AMD all fell at least -7%. Boeing, Caterpillar and General Motors, all companies with significant exposure to China, also dropped by -2.8%, -2.9% and -1.5, respectively. Boeing, Caterpillar, and GM were also on track to post substantial monthly losses.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract continued its bearish trend trading lower for the 4th consecutive session hitting a fresh 7-month low trading at 1,270 an ounce. I still see no reason to own this commodity as the NASDAQ 100 hit another all-time high this week and all of the interest lies in the equity market, not gold. In my opinion, if you are short a futures contract stay short as the next level of support is around 1,260 which could be tested in tomorrows trade. I still think we could retest the December 12th low of 1,251 & if that occurs prices could head down to the 1,200 level as a strong U.S dollar continues to impact gold prices as that market is also hovering right near an 11 month high & looks to even move higher in my opinion. Gold futures are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower and if you're short a futures contract continue to place the proper stop above the 2-week high standing at 1,313 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I am certainly not recommending any bullish position as that would be counter-trend trading as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

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Escalating Trade Tensions and Oil Production

Hello traders everywhere. The dominant topic of the week has been the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports and Beijing vowed to retaliate. But the market got a bit of a reprieve on Friday after OPEC agreed to a modest increase in crude oil production at their meeting in Vienna.

That move by OPEC helped the Dow Jones Industrial avoid what was shaping up to be it's worst daily loss (9 days) record in nearly forty years. The decision by OPEC has let the DOW post a daily gain led by the energy stocks, but it's still posting a weekly loss of -1.86% on the week, its second weekly loss of the month. Much like the DOW the S&P 500 is posting a weekly loss of -.70% and the NASDAQ has joined the weekly loss party for the first time in four weeks with a loos -.59% on recent weakness on Friday.

Trade Tensions Oil Production

Crude oil has jumped +5.6% on the week, but most of those gains are from today as it jumped +4.4% after news of the OPEC decision. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other top crude producers, meeting in Vienna, agreed to raise output from July by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) after its de facto leader Saudi Arabia persuaded Iran to cooperate in efforts to reduce the crude price and avoid a supply shortage.

The real increase, however, will be between 600,000 to 800,000 bpd because several countries that recently suffered production declines will struggle to reach full quotas, while other producers may not be able to fill the gap in production.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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