Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken

Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro.

industrial metals

Here is oil’s weekly view. Key support was lost last week as noted in this article: Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down. I expect currently oversold WTI to rally from the noted support area, but remain ‘not bullish’ on this cyclical commodity (and remain in scouting mode for the upcoming gold miner buying opportunity). Continue reading "Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,233 an ounce while currently trading at 1,211 down over $20 for the trading week as the precious metals across the board look to move lower in my opinion. Gold prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned negative because the U.S. dollar is right near another contract high as interest rates in the United States are on the rise and should continue to climb into 2019. If you are bearish, I would place the stop loss at 1,239 as an exit strategy as it looks to me that prices will retest the 1,195 level possibly in next week's trade as the commodities across the board look very week as now everything is following crude oil to the downside. Silver prices are down over $0.25 today as it looks like that will retest their contract low of 13.96 possibly in next weeks trade as that is also putting pressure on gold as the only bullish commodity is the S&P 500 which reacted very positively to the midterm elections. Volatility in gold is starting to increase and remember if you're trading a smaller account you can trade the mini contract which is 1/3 of the size of the large contract, therefore, reducing the monetary risk.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down

It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters.

Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other kind. Here is the monthly chart we use.

Gold Miners

It is preliminary, and one weekend OPEC jawbone could put oil back up in the consolidation. But as of now the price has ticked below the previous 2018 low to close the week. It is not a good look… unless you’re a gold bug, that is. More on that later. Continue reading "Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce while currently trading at 1,233 unchanged for the trading week hitting a three week low in Wednesday's trade before rallying sharply yesterday because the U.S. dollar was down 90 points. I'm sitting on the sidelines as this market remains extremely choppy with no trend even though we are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as gold prices have been supported by the breakout which has occurred in the platinum market which is also higher once again in today's trade. The next major level of resistance is around the 1,245 level as that has to be broken for the bullish momentum to continue. I still have a bullish bias towards the U.S. dollar despite the recent setback so keep an eye on this market while looking at other commodities that are beginning to trend as many of the sectors have come to life. Volatility in gold is average at the current time as we are experiencing $20 up and down days, but that's pretty normal for this market over the course of time and remember if you have a smaller account you can always trade the mini contract which is 1/3 of the large contract.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

macro fundamentals

So the 3 Amigos (of the macro) were saddled up last year in order to guide us to the point of macro change. Linked here is the most recent update from October 19. In this post let’s look at just one macro fundamental indicator among several important macro and sector fundamentals; the ratio of gold to developed stock markets.

As a side note, the macro fundamentals indicate whether the larger economic cycle and investor sentiment backdrops are right for the gold sector and the sector fundamentals that we track indicate whether gold mining companies are likely to improve, operationally. The gold stock sector is a real value now, assuming the turns in stock markets are for real, unlike the February spike down. Continue reading "Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change"