Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals - Sell In May And Go Away

Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Sell In May And Go Away
Chart courtesy of

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?"

Three Politically Focused ETFs

Matt Thalman - Contributor - ETFs - Politically Focused ETFs

While some investors like to think a company has sole control of their destiny, most wise investors know that outside factors do play a large role in whether a company will succeed or fail, both in the short and long run. Politics may be one of, if not the strongest outside forces that can affect a company’s long-term prospects.

A perfect example of this is playing out right now with the tariff wars raging between the USA and the rest of the world. US steel and aluminum companies seem to be poised to have a decent future as high tariffs are now being placed on imported metal. This is all being sold by the politicians to ensure national security. The idea is that without a steel and aluminum industry, the nation would be at risk if a major war were to break out and there was a shortage of materials.

The tariff’s being placed on imported metals is aimed to help keep US steel and aluminum producers in business. It would appear as of now that this industry and these businesses are certainly benefiting from the Republican’s in the White House.

But, some people believe that’s not the only industry which benefits from the current political leadership. There are currently several Exchange Traded Funds which have been built around industries that may prosper due to the policies being put in place by the current Republican-controlled White House and Congress. Continue reading "Three Politically Focused ETFs"

Bitcoin Is At A Crossroads

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals - Bitcoin Price

Back in December I called for an unbelievable $20k target for the Bitcoin when it traded around $15.6k, and ten days later that target was hit (click on the play button to see how price emerged). It was one hell of the roller coaster ride that month as Bitcoin then lost almost half of its worth in a matter of days right ahead of Christmas falling to $11k.

Rinse and repeat! The crypto king started to grow again, and then I posted another map at the end of 2017, which implied a pullback to the $16k-$20k area before another huge drop to the $7500 area. Amazingly, both the upside and downside forecasted areas were hit accurately (click on the play button to see how price emerged).

The Bitcoin buzz is coming down with the price staying below $10k. It is like a superstar who has seen his best times already and is on the tour to the countries where he is still warmly welcomed as we are not in the $20k euphoria area now (we can call it a “cocaine” time) although you can still buy some pleasant things selling just one coin for more than $7k these days.

In this post, I would like to share with you a familiar pattern I spotted recently on the Bitcoin chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin Is At A Crossroads"

U.S. March Crude Production Shows Large Gain

Robert Boslego - Contributor - Energies - U.S. March Crude Production

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that February crude oil production averaged 10.474 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 215,000 b/d from February, setting a new all-time record for the U.S. The large increase was on top of a 264,000 b/d gain in February.

The largest increases were recorded in Texas (159,000 b/d), New Mexico (38,000 b/d) and Oklahoma (15,000 b/d).

U.S. March Crude Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 54,000 b/d higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.420 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending May 25th was 10.769 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. March Crude Production Shows Large Gain"

Goldman Sachs - A Compelling Long-Term Buy

Noah Kiedrowski - Contributor - Biotech - Goldman Sachs

Favorable Backdrop and Financials

The latest Federal Reserve meeting indicated that interest rate increases might need to be accelerated while boosting its domestic GDP estimates for 2018 and 2019 alluding to a domestic and global economic expansion. Augmenting this economic backdrop is a record number of IPOs, a record number of global merger and acquisitions, rising interest rates, market volatility, deregulation and tax reform. All of these elements provide an ideal confluence that bodes well for the financial sector. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in particular looks to benefit in unique ways due to the consulting fees regarding mergers and acquisitions, trading around market volatility, launching of its cryptocurrency futures contracts as well as rising interest rates as Goldman Sachs has entered into the commercial banking segment when the bank acquired GE Capital’s savings business in 2016 assuming approximately $16 billion of deposits at the time. JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC) are all poised to benefit from the favorable economic backdrop as well however I feel Goldman is in a unique position to benefit across the board in all business segments. Goldman Sachs is relatively inexpensive based on historical standards after a string of quarterly results that have beat Wall Street’s estimates. Goldman Sachs offers a 1.3% dividend yield that was recently increased and a share buyback program to augment the overall favorable backdrop providing a compelling long-term buy. Continue reading "Goldman Sachs - A Compelling Long-Term Buy"