Call it the Trump Rally, or any name you like, but the stock market certainly came alive when the election swung in Donald Trump's favor. While all eyes are on equities, other things are going on in other markets that you should be preparing for.
Today, I'm going to take an in-depth look at the gold market that has been out of favor the last several years. Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) did enjoy a strong rally in the first half of the year and was a top performer. Since moving close to $1400 in July, gold has steadily eroded down to around the $1,180. The question now is, is gold going to continue on the downside or begin to stabilize and start looking forward to what could be an inflationary future? With that in mind, I decided to look at three market keys that could unlock gold and determine its future.
Long-Term Negative Force Line
FIG 1. I have drawn a long-term down sloping trendline starting from gold's all-time high of around $1900 and connected it to several other high points over the years. To be a valid technical trendline, it must touch three points. When that happens, it confirms the validity of the line. The long-term negative force line seen in FIG 1 is the dominant and number one element that will determine which way gold is headed in the future. I would consider a move over the $1375 - $1400 (3) levels on spot gold as a major signal that gold has changed direction to the upside. When this happens, and it will happen sometime in the future, gold will enter into a multiyear bull market. FIG 1 is the number one technical aspect for gold and should be watched closely in 2017.
Continue reading "With All Eyes On Equities - You May Have Missed This Sleeper"
How did you do the second quarter? Did you make money or did you lose money?
Well, I'm happy to report that the Internet Portfolio put in a very good performance in a very flat market. The portfolio showed a return of 5.67% which I think you'll agree is an excellent return for Q2.
The Internet Portfolio is comprised of the following five stocks: Continue reading "Here's A Good Way To Begin The Week"
If you haven't noticed it around you in public or the news, Pokémon Go is the craze that is sweeping the nation. Now you may be saying to yourself, why is he talking about Pokémon? Well, I have two reasons that I'll lay out below.
The first reason is social interaction and getting outside. My wife and I were out in downtown Annapolis last night enjoying a beautiful evening by the water when my wife said, "what are all these people doing walking around looking at their phones? It's like the zombie apocalypse." This statement cracked me up as I looked around. She was right, there were a bunch of people walking around. I then explained to her the new Pokémon Go craze and how the game had just been released. We decided to sit back and watch as this was going on and a few things stood out to me.
1. At least 90% of the people at city dock were playing this game. And a lot of them were clearly down there to specifically play the game. This has a couple of effects on people and the economy of the area. People are outside getting exercise whereas they may normally be inside watching tv or so on and the local businesses are undoubtedly making more money than normal with the larger than average crowds. Continue reading "Have You Caught 'Em All?"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Not sure if you live in the rain soaked mid-Atlantic states, but enough already with the rain! It is depressing. The reason I bring this up is the erratic and somewhat depressing action in the stock market.
On Tuesday we watched a massive rally in stocks and everyone was singing happy days are here again. Yesterday, reality and gravity came into the market and took away practically all of Tuesday's gains.
As I said on Monday when I talked about "The Next Big Swing", I believe that the markets are putting in a major top as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have all flashed red weekly Trade Triangles indicating to be out of the market and on the sidelines.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
So sad about Apple, here is a stock that was the "apple of every investors' eye" and now this once super stock is now in the dumpster. The question is, with all the Trade Triangles red and pointed lower for Apple, is it just a false signal or is this really the start of a bigger problem? I believe that Apple has some serious hurdles ahead and as the weeks and months pass these problems will come to the forefront.
The biggest problem for Apple right now is that it is not seen as an innovative growth company. Can anyone say "Nokia" and not wonder what happened to this once-leader in the mobile phone market? The next problem Apple has, and this could well be its number one problem, is perception. Apple is just not perceived as a "cool" company anymore. Apple's third problem is expanding its market for its cash cow iPhone. It very much looks like China wants to put the kibosh on any further Apple iPhone sales as they really want to sell their own smart phones (so much for free trade).
The next big psychological level for Apple is $90.00. Once we see around $89, you will see many more investors throw in the towel. On Thursday the 28th of April, Carl Icahn stated on CNBC that he no longer owned any Apple stock. MarketClub's Trade Triangles exited Apple six days earlier at $104.88. I am guessing Mr. Icahn exited around the same time before he made his big announcement on CNBC.
Continue reading "One Of These Markets Is Going Down Big Time"
Over the weekend I was analyzing the charts and it appeared to me that with Friday's red Trade Triangle on the S&P 500 that stocks have topped out. The similarity between August and September and this January and February is quite startling. If the same pattern holds true then the next big swing in the stock market will be to the downside.
Already we have seen weekly Trade Triangles in the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) and just recently in the S&P 500 (CME:SP500). These weekly red Trade Triangles many times act as early warning system and are a strong indicator to move to the sidelines in the case of the Indices.
I would not be surprised to see more back-and-forth choppy trading action before the market eventually falls under its own weight.
I am looking for stocks to make a cyclical low sometime in June if the same cycle holds true.
S&P 500 Chart Legend
1. First Low
2. Pivot Point
3. Second Low
4. Cyclic High
Continue reading "The Next Big Swing In Stocks"