In case you missed it yesterday, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), took a 5% position in Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) which was enough to push this stock up 40%. Yesterday's action by Alibaba was seen as a black swan event that could not be predicted by any indicator. Groupon had been in a steady decline after hitting a peak of over $27 when it began trading. Since that time, the stock has steadily moved lower and recently traded perilously close to the $2 level.
As I have said many times before, perception is very important in stocks. The fact that Alibaba took a 5% stake in this company should not be overlooked.
Technically speaking all of the Trade Triangles turned green and positive yesterday for the first time in a long, long time. You also saw a 12 month downtrend line broken to the upside which also helped change Groupon's momentum.
With all of these positives happening to Groupon, how high can this stock go? Continue reading "This Stock Could Appreciate 50% In The Next 6 To 12 Months"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Here we are starting a new trading week and the big news is a sharp rally in equities and a big pullback in gold. The question on everyone's mind is, "is this for real or just a rally in a bear market in equities and a pullback in the bull market for gold?"
Let's take a look at gold, first of all. I believe that the gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) market has finally come to life again after hitting a peak in August 2011 and then losing the half its value over a period of four years.
Looking at a long-term chart of monthly gold prices you can see that (2) was the first time that gold had moved below the RSI 50 line. This long-term indicator was showing you that gold prices were in serious trouble. It is also worth noting that the RSI indicator (3) has stopped every rally in gold. I expect to see more consolidation in this market and then see gold break over its resistance at the RSI 50 level. When that happens, expect to see a potential multiyear bull market to take place in gold.
Continue reading "Has Gold Suddenly Lost Its Glitter?"
It has been one heck of a week to say the very least and it is not over yet. I want to take a look at a tool that I'm pretty confident in saying that very few traders ever watch. The tool I'm discussing is MarketClub's quarterly charts. If you have not seen this MarketClub feature, you may want to check it out, particularly if you are a long-term trader.
I'm going to be looking at the S&P 500 to see just how close the quarterly chart is to turning negative. I'm also going to be looking at a textbook example of a downside measurement on the S&P 500.
I will also be analyzing Apple and Yahoo, both of which could be in for a pretty bumpy ride.
Let's begin by looking at the S&P 500 (CME:SP500) and the textbook example I mentioned earlier for measuring a down move. I'm using a close-only weekly chart and you will see exactly how I measure the move.
Next let's take a look at this long-term quarterly chart of the S&P 500 and as you can see it is poised to possibly break the positive long-term trend that has been in place since October of 2010. Continue reading "This Indicator Is A Winner For Long-Term Traders"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Well, today's sharp drop in equity prices and the rally in gold should come as no surprise as I have been talking about this since the beginning of the year. In fact, here's my first post where I explained why I thought the bear market was going to continue in the equities market. I'm not going to go over the reasons again as to why the markets are going down, suffice to say they are going down and are likely to continue.
At the moment all of the central banks, including the Fed, are clueless as to what to do. Instead of spending time on a cure in 2008, we made it easy for everyone to "take a pill" and mask over the problem. Since it did not cure the problem, we all have to suffer now as the markets readjust and face the music. The new hard reality is that there is no wonder pill.
Let's take a look at the major indices and see how far they could fall based on Fibonacci retracement levels and technical measurements. Continue reading "It's Not Over Until It's Over And It's Not Over Yet - Part 2"
After the close today, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) announces its earnings for the fourth quarter. Analysts are expecting Disney to make $1.45 a share on revenues of 14.7 billion. But here's the rub, ESPN which produces 45% of Disney's revenues, lost 3 million subscribers last year and is now a potential Achilles' heel for Disney.
Here's how I'm looking at Disney:
The Trade Triangles are all red and negative indicating lower prices. Technically the chart for Disney looks dismal at best. Based on those two elements, I expect Disney to either come in on analysts estimates or to miss their earnings. I do not expect to see a surprise on the upside here. Based on that analysis you would want to be short (if you're not already based on the Trade Triangles) Disney before the close today.
Another stock that is set to report fourth-quarter 2015 results after the close today is Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:AKAM). Analysts estimate that this stock should have positive earnings of around $0.50 a share. I would be surprised given the overall negative tone of tech stocks that even if Akamai reports good earnings, it won't go far on the upside. Technically speaking this stock according to the Trade Triangles is in a major downtrend, it has however completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is within striking distance of a long-term support line which comes in around $37 a share. I would be more inclined to go with the trend and stay short this market. The original Trade Triangle sell signal for this stock came on 7/6/15 at $69.13. Akamai closed on Monday evening at $40.98. Continue reading "Can Star Wars Save Disney Or Will ESPN Sink The Ship?"