Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week held sacred the Fed’s “precious” independence, but he apparently forgot how quickly and easily it’s been bullied into altering its monetary policy by both politicians and influential financial markets people.
Until just a couple of months ago, the Fed was determined to “normalize” interest rates and its enormous balance sheet. But after a relative – emphasis on that word – weak patch for the economy and howls of pain from investors during last year’s correction, the Powell Fed was lighting quick to reverse course and put a halt to more rate hikes and portfolio runoff until further notice.
Not surprisingly, the financial press hasn’t given President Trump any credit for this (if credit is the right word in this instance), even though he was clearly the first and loudest basher of tightening Fed policy. Wall Street then jumped on the bandwagon, and voila, we have a new “patient” Fed and an easier monetary policy – and the best January for stocks since the 1980s.
Powell and other members of the Fed have tried to justify their abrupt about-face by noting recent weak – again, relatively speaking – economic data. But January’s robust nonfarm payrolls report – nearly double the consensus forecast – calls that into serious question. Continue reading "Blowin' In The Wind"
As we enter the final stage of our stock market prediction from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data. We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally? The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.
As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future? Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months. Here we go.
At this point, we are going to highlight our earlier predictions (all of 2018 and into Q1/Q2 of 2019) and show you what the market has done since these calls were made back in September 2018. Pay attention to this Weekly ES (S&P 500 chart) and pay attention to the YELLOW ARROWS on this chart. We have highlighted key predictive price modeling points with these yellow arrows on the chart to show you what our ADL predictive modeling system suggested would happen back in December 2017. Continue reading "Our May Stock Market Prediction - Part 1"
Israel just took a major step toward becoming a global leader in the high-growth medical cannabis market.
Israel just became the fifth country in the world to legalize medical cannabis exports after its cabinet voted to approve a sweeping new cannabis law.
Here are some more details from Reuters.
The bill, backed last month by parliament, allows companies approved by the health regulator and police to export medical cannabis to countries that permit its use. Israeli media said exports could start in as little as nine months.
“I am glad this is finally happening. It opens a very big market in Israel. The technology is here in Israel and until now we simply had to give the technology to other countries. Therefore, I am glad we can reap the profits here in Israel,” said Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked.
Some lawmakers had tried to block the legislation, fearing more cultivation could push more drugs onto the streets at home.
Israeli companies – benefiting from a favorable climate and expertise in medical and agricultural technologies – are among the world’s biggest producers of medical cannabis.
Israeli Cabinet Approves Law To Allow Medical Cannabis Exports
This legislative move places Israel into a very small group of countries in the world, and the export news comes at the perfect time. The global cannabis market is expected to explode in the next few years. Continue reading "Israel Legalizes Medical Cannabis Exports"
Hello traders everywhere. Groundhog day, that's what it feels like right now as traders continue to follow news about the U.S. - China trade talks. On Tuesday President Donald Trump suggested that he might be open to postponing the current deadline of early March so that both sides can reach a deal. Failure to achieve an agreement would spark higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with U.S. delegates on Friday as both sides try to strike a deal, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
The Dow is up about 135 points as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Visa (V) outperformed. The S&P 500 gained 0.45%, led by gains in tech and consumer discretionary. The Nasdaq advanced 0.5% as Amazon (AMZN) shares climbed .50% at the open.
The stock market is also getting a boost from news that a tentative deal on a new budget that could prevent another government shutdown which also includes border security funding. President Trump said Tuesday he is not happy with this proposal but added he will be studying its details.
Key Levels To Watch This Week:
Continue reading "Optimism Propels Stock Market Higher"
Last July I posted a monthly chart of copper futures to show you that the earlier move up had been completed when the price hit the accurately predicted $3.32 level and we have entered a bearish mode.
The big short game was set between the $3.32 and $1.94 extremes. The earlier post was calling for the price of copper to retest the former valley of $1.94. Below are the poll results with your expectations recorded in July of 2018. Again, I am very thankful for your stable activity!
The majority of you agreed with my opinion that the copper could revisit the former low of $1.94. 2018 finished at the $2.64 mark, which is far away from the target and below I will show you why and what could be the next for copper. Continue reading "Copper Gives Bears Another Chance"