My Big Trend Analysis For Silver Investors - Part 1

Everyone seems to be focused on Gold recently and seems to be ignoring the real upside potential in Silver. With all the global economic issues, military tensions, geopolitical issues, and other items continually pushed into the news cycles, it is easy to understand why traders and investors may be ignoring Silver.

Silver has really not started to move like the other precious metals. Gold is up over 45% since 2016. Palladium is up over 350% since 2016. Silver is up only 29% since 2016. The Gold to Silver ratio is currently at 86.7 – very near to the highest level on record going back over 25 years.

Silver

Historically, Silver rallies 6 to 12+ months after Gold begins a price rally. The big break in the Gold to Silver ratio comes at a time when Gold rallies by more than 30% to 60% faster than the price of Silver. In other words, when a major disparity sets up in the price of Gold compared to the price of Silver, then Silver explodes higher – which results in a drop in the Gold to Silver ratio. Continue reading "My Big Trend Analysis For Silver Investors - Part 1"

The Fed's Newest Service: Portfolio Insurance

Every generation believes that they know more than the previous generation. Then, as they get older, they slowly start to realize that their elders aren’t as dumb as they thought. It's normal.

What's different today is that we seem to think, or at least many people do, that not only are we wiser today than everyone who has come before us but that humankind has been doing everything wrong for the past 5,000 years or so of civilization. Whether it's morally wrong to eat meat, or how many genders there are, or who can marry who, or whatever, it seems that we've been misguided since the beginning of time.

This attitude also manifests itself in the economic sphere. Based on the Federal Reserve’s recent actions, they appear to believe that everything we knew or thought we knew about economic cycles and bull and bear markets has been all wrong. Thousands of years of boom and bust cycles could have been eliminated, apparently, if only the proper monetary policy fixes had been applied.

Quite clearly, the Fed’s new mandate is that if economic growth starts to sputter, or the stock market moves beyond a correction, or some international crisis – Brexit, Megxit, Iran, North Korea, trade wars, you name it – threatens to upset the applecart, it will immediately turn its monetary policy tools into high gear.

Before now, economic growth and stock prices were pretty much allowed to take their own course, with some attempts to smooth out the worst excesses. It was considered to be both normal and healthy for markets and economies to go up and down periodically, as long as the general trend was upward. Now, however, that appears to be not only quaint, old-fashioned thinking but just plain wrong. There is no reason, the thinking goes, for us to suffer any economic pain as long as we have the policy tools to avoid it. Continue reading "The Fed's Newest Service: Portfolio Insurance"

Top Performing ETFs in 2019

With the S&P 500 (SPX) ending the year up 28.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 22.3%, and the NASDAQ (IXIC) increased by 35.2% in 2019, much of the year it felt like no matter what you were invested in you were making money. And for the most part, that was true. Some investors made more than others because they had picked what would become the ETF winners of the year.

Did you see market returns, or were you invested in the ETFs that beat the averages and in some cases by a lot? Let’s take a look at the top five best performing ETFs of 2019 in several different categories the average investor has to choose from.

The following table shows the performance of the top five best performing ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years.

ETFs

The following table shows the performance of the top five Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years.

ETFs

The following table shows the performance of the top five Equity Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years. Continue reading "Top Performing ETFs in 2019"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 129/12 while currently trading at 129/03, experiencing a wild trading week with large price swings daily. In Wednesday's trade, prices traded as high as 130/06 before selling off rather dramatically as tensions with the country of Iran simmered down.

However, I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 129 /14 while then placing the stop loss at 127 / 29 as the risk is around $1,500 per contract plus slippage and commission. In my opinion, I do not think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in 2020. That is a fundamental bullish factor towards higher prices ahead, coupled with the fact that the risk/reward is in your favor as volatility certainly has come to life. I don't think the problem with Iran is over with yet as there will be more skirmishes down the road.

If you take a look at the daily chart, the 10-year note has bounced off the 128/00 level on a half a dozen occasions as the yield is 1.82%. I think we can head back down to around the 1.50% level as you have to remember many countries around the world still have negative interest rates, so look to be a buyer.

TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.15 an ounce while currently trading at 18.15 unchanged for the trading week, however, that doesn't tell you the whole story as in Wednesdays trade prices went as high as 18.89 before selling off on tensions with the country of Iran which have seemed to settle down.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 17.45 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low with now stands at 17.81 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding. Currently, I also have a bullish platinum recommendation as I took profits on the gold trade last Sunday. Still, I do believe the entire precious metal sector is headed higher as the tensions with Iran could resurface in a New York minute as that would send prices even higher, so stay long as the risk/reward remains in your favor. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

The Crazy Train To Bull Eternity

Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).

I have to disclaim the bull positioning because book talkers tend to talk about their book. My book is only long insofar as I have equity positions because in a manic up phase I have little interest in eroding the situation with short hedging. Besides, gold stocks are doing that balancing job right now and that balancing act has been working well since June.

Anyway, here is a tweet from a well-followed commentator that is framed so logically and paints the 2008 crash as merely a blip that you or I could do standing on our heads.

 

bull

Continue reading "The Crazy Train To Bull Eternity"