"We Will Use Those Tools..."

Yesterday from Fed Chairman Powell…

Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank would fight the next economic downturn by buying large amounts of government debt to drive down long-term interest rates, a strategy that has been dubbed quantitative easing, or QE.

Of course, they will. The fix is always in, isn’t it? Wouldn’t want to let a system and associated economy so far out on a brittle limb weighed down by exponential debt leverage go it on its own, now would we? Wouldn’t want anything like a naturally functioning economy because until an utter and complete crash and clean out, there can be no such thing. So more debt manipulation it is!

“We will use those tools — I believe we will use them aggressively should the need arise to do so,” Powell said.

The Fed has traditionally been able to slash interest rates to fight a recession often by as much as 5 percentage points. But that’s impossible now because the Fed’s benchmark rate is currently in a range of 1.5%-1.75%.

“We will have less room to cut,” Powell said.

Duh.

Now comes the money line Continue reading ""We Will Use Those Tools...""

2020 Stock Market - What To Expect

Quite a bit has changed in the global markets and future expectations over the past 4+ weeks. Q4 2019 ended with a bang. US/China Trade Deal, US signing the USMCA Continental Free Trade Agreement, BREXIT and now the Wuhan Virus. On top of all of that, we’ve learned that Germany and Japan have entered a technical recession. As Q4-2019 earnings continue to push the US stock market higher – what should traders expect going forward in 2020?

Volatility, Sector Rotation, and Continued US Stock Market Strength.

Our researchers have been pouring over our charts and predictive modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs of weakness or major price rotation. There are early warning signs that the US Stock Market may be setting up for a moderate downside price rotation within the first 6 months of 2020, but we believe the continued Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months will continue to drive foreign investment into the US and North American stock markets for quite a while in 2020 and 2021.

The interesting component to all of this, which should keep investor’s attention and really get them excited, is the chance that some type of foreign market disruption may take place in 2020 and 2021. There are a number of things that could potentially disrupt foreign market expectations.

First on the list is this virus event in China (that seems to be spreading rapidly). Second would be the news that Japan and Germany have entered a recession. Further down the list is the very real possibility that many Asian and foreign nations could see a dramatic decrease in GDP and economic activity throughout much of 2020 and 2021.

It is far too early to make any real predictions. Still, traders need to be aware of the longer-term consequences of global markets entering a contraction phase related to a confluence of events that prompts central bank intervention while consumers, financial sectors and manufacturing and industrial sectors are pummeled. Imagine what the global markets would look like if Continue reading "2020 Stock Market - What To Expect"

Will 2020 Be Different For Marijuana ETFs

At the start of 2019, the marijuana industry was the 'new' hot investment. By the end of the year, no one was bragging about owning shares in the industry. Why did this happen, and is 2020 going to be more of the same, or should you consider buying into the up and coming industry now?

The marijuana industry still showed signs of becoming the next great thing early in 2019. The industry that was going to take the crown away from technology as the 'fastest-growing' sector in the market. In 2019 the 'pumping' of marijuana stocks ended. But that all came to an abrupt halt around July.

At that time, investors stopped believing the narrative that had been pushed for about 3 years prior. Legalized marijuana in a few States and Canada would help pave the way for global legalization and massive profits for all the companies involved. And don't forget about the new 'marijuana-infused beverage category, which spurred investments in all the big marijuana companies by all the big alcohol beverage companies.

No one wanted to miss out on the 'next big thing,' investors and multinational organizations.

Then reality struck when earnings report after earnings report indicated the industry was not profitable and way to segmented. Furthermore, the earnings reports indicated that while most investors and businesses in the marijuana industry wanted more States and countries around the world to legalize the use of marijuana, that the companies operating in the industry couldn't handle their current demand, let alone anything additional. Shortages in Canada plagued the industry in 2019 and highlighted the biggest problem wasn't opening new markets; it was how they would supply them.

Building new grow houses may sound simple. However, the red tape and political maneuvering typically haven't been easy. Also, in most areas that growing marijuana on a large scale is Continue reading "Will 2020 Be Different For Marijuana ETFs"

Crude Oil: Buy Setup With 1:6 Risk/Reward Ratio

Last time I updated on the crude oil futures in May 2019, I asked if “You Were Waiting for Crude Oil at $20”. Both the weekly chart and the monthly chart had a bearish outlook as the price of crude topped at $66.60 and then it plummeted below $60. The targets were set between $32 and $22. Check out the poll results below.

Crude Oil

Most of you voted that the price would tag the former bottom of $26. As we know now, the price indeed dropped heavily, but it couldn’t break below $50 and bounced back up from there. So the majority result was the closest call, although with a considerable difference.

The chart structure had changed since then and I am happy to share with you the emerging buy setup for crude oil futures with a considerable reward opportunity. Let’s start with an updated weekly chart below to see the idea. Continue reading "Crude Oil: Buy Setup With 1:6 Risk/Reward Ratio"

IBM Posts Strong Quarterly Results and New CEO

International Business Machines (IBM) is fresh off its strong quarterly results, followed up by news that its CEO is stepping down. Each event separately drove the stock higher as investors cheered the duo of better than expected earnings and a change at the CEO level. IBM continues its long turn back to growth, focusing on high-value faster-growing business segments while embracing the future of technology with AI and hybrid cloud architecture via the Red Hat acquisition. Over the past few years, IBM has taken a blended approach of M&A, realigning its business mix to current and future trends, maintaining its dividend payout, and continuing to buy back shares while layering-in the major Red Hat acquisition.

IBM’s stock has been on an upward trend after investors decided to move past its initial displeasure of announcing its RedHat acquisition when shares were sold-off and traded down to ~$108. IBM's executive leadership has set the growth and value narrative, and investors are quickly realizing the value that Red Hat brings to the table while washing away fears that IBM overpaid for the $34 billion acquisition. From the $108 dip, IBM has been in a position of strength and has broken out past $144 after its recent Q4 2019 earnings. Long-term imperatives are beginning to bear fruit in emerging high-value segments that have fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will augment its transition away from its dependence on legacy businesses to the future of hybrid cloud, artificial intelligence, and analytics.

Q4 2019 Earnings – Better than Expected

IBM reported Q4 2019 earnings that were better than expected, beating on both the top and bottom line. These results boosted shares by ~4.5%. IBM reported EPS of $4.71 and revenue of $21.8 billion, which was flat year-over-year while beating analysts’ targets. IBM popped the following day to above the $145. The company laid out its growth narrative and Red Hat acquisition catalysts. IBM's revenue was flat across most of its business segments; however, Continue reading "IBM Posts Strong Quarterly Results and New CEO"