You read that headline correctly. Don't look now (you might jinx it), but Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), the large integrated oil major, now sports green monthly and weekly Trade Triangles on its MarketClub chart. And this with oil at $35 per barrel.
CVX has given back about 29% of its value since closing at $134.85 on June 24, 2014 (on a price-only basis). At its worst, the stock's peak-to-trough decline was nearly 47% as of this August 25th, when CVX closed at $70.02. Wednesday's closing price was a much better $93.44 – good for a cool 33% gain for anyone lucky enough to have caught the falling knife right at its recent bottom.
CVX is now down just 12.9% for 2015 year-to-date (YTD) when including dividends. On a 3-year annualized basis, CVX shares have lost 0.6% annualized, and on a 5-year basis, the number is +4.77% per year. All those performance numbers are on par with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and other integrated oil majors. You could safely say it's been a wild ride for all of them. Continue reading "Chevron Flashes Buy"→
Recent data on oil prices and energy equities is painting a picture few seem to appreciate. Here are 5 under-appreciated nuggets of information that generally seem to favor a rebound in oil prices and oil companies’ stocks. At the end, I offer one significant counterpoint.
Fact #1: Growing demand: Media outlets seem to continue wondering whether global demand for oil has increased with today’s lower prices. The answer, of course, is a definite yes.
Last year, while we Americans were busy overindulging on turkey and all the fixings, OPEC ministers pulled a fast one on us. While we innocently watched football and took naps, the price of WTI crude plummeted from $74 to $68 in response to OPEC’s announcement it would leave its oil production target unchanged at 30 million barrels per day (mb/d).
Until that weekend, oil in the $60s or $70s seemed unsustainably low.
Of course, even before OPEC’s big Turkey Day declaration, oil had already fallen about 30% from its June highs of $107, due to burgeoning supplies. But the summer swoon turned out to be just the warmup for the rest of oil’s big 17-month collapse (so far). OPEC’s Thanksgiving 2014 meeting sent prices reeling and continued pressures have kept crude near its lows (around $40) even today. Continue reading "Will OPEC Be Turkeys Again?"→
What will oil prices be when the U.S. government begins selling tens of millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in 2018?
The House passed a federal budget on Wednesday – which is reportedly on its way to likely Senate passage and Presidential signature – calling for the government to sell at least 58 million barrels of oil from the SPR over an 8-year period beginning in 2018. The SPR currently holds about 695 million barrels in 4 sites along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Per the budget bill, the U.S. may sell up to an additional $2 billion dollars’ worth of oil from the reserve to build new pipelines and otherwise modernize infrastructure. That program would represent an incremental 43.5 million barrels based on today’s prices, bringing the total number of barrels to be sold up to a possible 101.5 million. At today’s rates, that could add about $4.7 billion into the US Treasury.
Lior nicely covered the Asian Contagion from a forex point of view. I'll focus mostly on the economy and the stock market.
About a month ago, in the midst of the most extreme stock market volatility, Ken Fisher (founder of Fisher Investments) gave a highly memorable interview to CNBC, in which Fisher said today's markets are "in so many ways reminiscent of the 1997 correction."
Fisher proceeded to elaborate on comparisons between 1997 and today, qualifying his remarks by citing the same adage Lior used about history never repeating, but often rhyming. Here, I quote Fisher's litany of similarities today's correction shares with 1997's: Continue reading "More About 2015 Rhyming With 1997"→
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