Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high. Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results. Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher, which extends that true valuation gap.
We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time. Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers. Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities. We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.
Our biggest concern is a sharp downside rotation related to overvalued markets and sudden news or a new economic event that disrupts forward expectations. Q2 data will likely be a big concern for many, yet we believe something else could act as a catalyst for a reversion event. Possibly global political news? Possibly some type of extended collateral damage related to the global economy? Possibly something related to earnings expectations going forward through the rest of 2020 and beyond? We believe Continue reading "Is A Blow-Off Top Setting Up"