Today is finally the day. Britain's long-awaited referendum on whether or not the U.K. exits the E.U. will finally happen. After months of polls showing that a narrow majority of Britons favored staying with the E.U., recent surveys have shown the country's voters leaning toward leaving the 28-nation E.U. despite the potential for strong economic aftershocks in the U.K. and across the world. What is certain is that global markets are likely to see heavy trading on Friday, as investors adjust their holdings based on Britain's decision.
Which leads me to today's poll question:
As always, I would love to hear your thoughts on the subject. Please take a moment to vote and then leave a comment.
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Yesterday, we saw the news push the equity markets sharply higher. Unfortunately, the enthusiasm did not last the entire day and the markets fell off quite dramatically from the early highs. As I have been saying for some time, the markets are in a broad trading range and Brexit is just adding fuel to the type of range trading mentality.
I was interviewed by Reuters yesterday and they asked me what I thought of the markets and Brexit. I answered them in the only way that I could, saying that no one at this juncture has a clue as to whether England is going to remain in the EU or it's going to leave. There are of course pros and cons for both sides of this argument.
The younger generation wants to stay in the EU as it gives them more latitude to move to other countries and find work. The older generation wants to leave and get out from under the thumb of the bureaucrats in Brussels and also have Britain set its own immigration policies.
Like I said earlier, it's going to be a volatile week and polls are more likely going to drive the sentiment than common sense.
Options in the macro markets like gold, bonds, and currencies are priced for a disaster heading into "Brexit" Here's a way to play the pumped up volatility in the options market using Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Analysis.
Worries over an exit of Britain from the European Union have taken their toll on Sterling. As June 23rd approaches, the day in which Britons will vote to either stay or leave, so does the pressure on the Pound Sterling mount. Media polls are failing to indicate a clear result, and the FX market is getting nervous. And yet, a Brexit seems unlikely and when markets price in the unlikely—even partially—it’s worth taking the other side.
Why A Brexit Still Seems Remote
The risk of a Brexit is mostly economic. Warnings of the financial calamity that could hit the UK have been coming from notable economists from the UK Treasury but the most noteworthy and important warning came from the Bank of England.
The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, delivered a stark warning in his latest conference. Carney laid out a rather bleak scenario in case Britons choose to exit the union. The BoE Governor stressed that growth would falter, unemployment would jump and inflation could spin out of control. Continue reading "Sterling Set for Strong Rebound In July"→
Unless you've been incommunicado this past week, you've surely noticed that the FX arena has been dominated by one trade. That, of course, is short Sterling, because Britain appears on the verge of leaving the European Union (EU).
The black swan event that brought about this situation was the surprise announcement by Boris Johnson, the incumbent Mayor of London. Johnson, a rising star of the Tories, is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU. That, of course, was a bit of a game changer. Investors got spooked by the thought of the financial Armageddon that could be visited upon Britain if a Brexit (British Exit) does occur.