Is a July rate increase back on now because of the strong June jobs report? If not July, then September?
June’s unexpectedly strong 287,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls – more than 100,000 above Street forecasts – has some people believing that the Federal Reserve will now once again change its mind and increase interest rates sometime this summer, either later this month or at its September conclave.
But the bond market isn’t buying it, and neither am I. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ended last Friday at a new record low of 1.36%, down eight basis points for the week. That doesn’t sound like bond investors believe that a rate increase is imminent. And it’s hard to believe that the Fed, which won’t make a move unless the sun, moon and stars are in perfect alignment, will suddenly take the big rebound in nonfarm payrolls as the green light to raise rates. It will take a lot more than that. Continue reading "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight"→
With interest rates plunging all over the world, including right here in the U.S., many fixed-income investors are scratching their heads about where they can find something that pays more than 1% without taking on a pile of risk.
The answer is right under their noses. Plus, the return is way better than you can get on stocks and bonds (even gold!). Not only that, but the return is guaranteed.
As Brexit wreaked havoc on international financial markets, it presented a brief opportunity to capitalize on the collateral damage fallout within the biotechnology cohort. This event may continue to offer entry points as the reverberations are felt throughout the markets. I didn’t factor in the possibility that a major economic power within the EU would vote to relinquish its membership and move forward as an independent nation. However as Brexit became reality, I utilized this opportunity to deploy capital in the biotechnology cohort via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) as a long-term investor within the space. As the UK proceeded with its divorce from the EU, markets sold off in a meaningful way. Brexit introduced instability throughout the region thus negatively impacting financial markets abroad. I largely view the Brexit as an extraneous event unrelated directly to the biotechnology cohort; thus I utilized this brief opportunity to add to my position in IBB and may continue to add in periods of weakness. Continue reading "IBB: Brexit Collateral Damage Provides Brief Buying Opportunity"→
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses market reactions post-Brexit vote.
To truly appreciate market crashes, you must have an ample serving of grey hair.
Over the weekend, I must have received three dozen "Emergency Email Alert" notifications by newsletter services and financial intermediaries that got absolutely obliterated Friday morning and were expecting more of the same on Monday, which they got in spades. This new generation of "wealth advisors" has, unfortunately, been living off the largess of Central Bank guarantees and the winks and nudges of the "Finance Ministers" and "Treasury Secretaries" and "Chancellors of the Exchequer," where they make investment decisions based not upon analyses of balance sheets or income statements but upon the collective wisdom of Champagne Socialists. I have been writing about this for about thirty-five years and while it has not yet manifested itself in the advance of the prices of precious metals to levels that would correspond to the level of coinciding currency debasement, especially in the United States and Europe, it is going to be the "Talk of the Town" here in 2016. Continue reading "Following Brexit, Central Bank Desperation Never More Evident"→
Not too long ago, July was marked as THE month that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate for the second time in a year. The last time the Fed hiked rates twice in the same calendar year was a decade ago. Now, in the wake of the Brexit shocker, Bloomberg reports markets are pushing the probability of the next rate hike towards the end of 2018. Are investors overly pessimistic? Here are some factors to consider.
Brexit Impact on the US
“Kicking the can” has been a common analogy for the EU’s handling of the Greek debt crisis. In fact, until this day, from way back in 2010 when the crisis over Greece’s debt first erupted, the Greek crisis has not been resolved. Now, with EU leaders and the UK deeply divided on the timing and execution of Brexit, the UK could delay the activation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty – at least until it gets an easy way out of the EU. A slow and drawn out Brexit, while negative for the UK economy in the immediate term due to uncertainty, may have only minimal impact on the US economy in the same time horizon. A slow, drawn out Brexit does not create shocks, and without the threat of an immediate shock, the US economy should weather the transition well. Continue reading "Fed Might Still Raise Rates"→